NC-Sen: Dole Trails Hagan by 5 in New Poll

Public Policy Polling (9/17-19, likely voters, 9/9 in parens):

Kay Hagan (D): 46 (43)

Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 41 (42)

Christopher Cole (L): 6 (6)

Undecided: 7 (9)

(MoE: ±3%)

Hoo-ah! Those are some damn good numbers for Kay Hagan. What’s driving her success? Well, you could say: It’s the economy, stupid.

58% of voters name the “Economy and Jobs” as their most important issue this year, and incumbency is poison to them: Hagan leads by 57-30 among this group. Tom Jensen has more:

She’s also doing well with North Carolina’s fastest growing group of voters: suburbanites. They now represent a plurality of the state’s voters, and Hagan is the most popular with them of any of the candidates for President, Governor, and Senate. She leads 53-36 with that emerging power broker.

Also contributing to Hagan’s strength is her steady improvement among African-American voters (a group that Dole performed well with in 2002… for a Republican); Hagan now leads by 79-11 among these voters. That’s up from 52-28 in July.

I like this race more and more everyday.

SSP currently rates NC-Sen as a Tossup.

39 thoughts on “NC-Sen: Dole Trails Hagan by 5 in New Poll”

  1. This is just the good news I need tonight! I’m really starting to think that NC-Sen may end up being one of our top pick-up opportunities, and certainly our best chance for a pick-up in the South outside Virginia. Perhaps I’ll need to send some more $$$$ Hagan’s way soon. 😉

  2. Obama’s tied with McCain in NC:

    Obama 46%

    McCain 46%

    If this holds up, the Senate race may not be the only hot race in NC. Hopefully if Obama & Hagan both keep up the good work here, we’ll give the Rethuglicans a real run for their $$$$! 😉  

  3. The last US Senator from NC (not named Jesse Helms) who won re-election was Sam J Ervin, Jr (D) in 1968. He served from 1954-1974.

    This time, we’re sending Liddy back to Kansas!

  4. imploding is what I think could help us get back into power in the South.  We have excellent House pick-up opportunities and with Warner, Hagan, and Musrove, we get a good foot in the door in the Senate.  And we also have to watch Martin in Georgia.  It’s too bad that the Alabama opportunity slipped away.

    But the economy is the Democrats strong area (kind of ironic really since we’re those damn tax and spend liberals) so this finally imploding in the Republican’s faces right before election day is the blessing we need that we are really the party of change.

  6. Whoever thought this would become much of a race? Not me that’s for sure.

    This might be our ‘Webb pickup’ of the year in that the race didn’t break until very late.

    Oh and those Presidential numbers? Like warm apple pie.

  7. This is indeed wonderful news.   As a political observer and activist for 35 years…voraciously reading polling data in all of the preceding election cycles, I am personally at a loss to understand how Obama can be behind a bit in Ohio, yet even in NC.  It goes against everything I have understood about the politics and demographics of these states.  Would someone please explain it to me…..

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