Research 2000 for Daily Kos (9/17-18, likely voters, no trendlines):
Dennis Shulman (D): 34
Scott Garrett (R-inc): 49
(MoE: ±5%)
This is the first public poll of the race in New Jersey’s fifth congressional district, where Rabbi Dennis Shulman is taking on retrograde wingnut Rep. Scott Garrett. There are a number of things worth pointing out about these results.
On the positive side, Garrett is below the fifty percent mark, which is always troubling for an incumbent. At the same time, his favorables stand at a weak 44-38 – almost as many people dislike him as like him. On the flipside, Rabbi Shulman’s favorables stand at 36-26, which means that nearly 40% of likely voters don’t yet know who he is. In other words, he has room to grow.
It’s exactly that growing room which gives Shulman the chance to make up the fifteen-point gap that R2K says he faces. Shulman’s doing pretty well among Dems, winning them at a 72-11 rate, while Garrett is doing ten points better among members of his own party, taking Republicans by 77-6. The real issue, though, is independents. Garrett cleans up here 48-35. The good news for Shulman is that this group is the least familiar with him: fully 45% of indies say they have no opinion of the Democrat – an opportunity, if Shulman can get his name out there.
Those independents are the real X-factor in this poll. They make up a huge 54% of the sample, while Republicans clock in at 27% and Dems at 19%. This is actually pretty close to where registration stood in the district before Super Tuesday. However, Dem registration has shot up since then; I’m told that more recent figures indicate the district’s makeup is more like 44I-32R-24D today. But knowing registration numbers is one thing – figuring out who will show up on election day is quite another.
And in that regard, NJ-05 is a bit of an electoral engima. The district voted for Bush in 2004 by what looks like a daunting 57-43 margin. In 2000, however, the margin was half as wide, just 52-45. Why the seven-point shift, when Bush only gained about three nationwide? Most analysts I’ve discussed this with believe there was something of a “9/11 effect” here, just as there was in many parts of the tri-state area.
If this assessment is accurate, then this right-ward shift may have been temporary. One possible piece of support for this thesis is the presidential head-to-head, which shows McCain leading Obama 52-37. Obama trails past Dem performance quite significantly, but McCain is at Bush 2000 – and not Bush ’04 – levels, for the moment. In a red district, though, undecideds are more likely to drift Republican, so McCain’s current 52% may not be his ceiling.
One final thought: Neither candidate in the fifth CD (which is covered by the ultra-expensive NYC media market) has gone up on the air yet, so there is plenty of potential for this race to move.
Once the ad blitz starts and there isn’t any movement, probably time to take off our radar.
Shulman has kicked ass at fundraising IIRC, right?
he could convince the moderate Republicans (especially women) who elected Marge Roukema to Congress eleven times that he is much closer to her positions than Garrett is. There is no reason that Garrett should be winning 77% of Republicans with his views on issues such as abortion.
I’m not sure I buy this but if it’s true it says a whole lot.
I live in NJ-11 which adjoins NJ-5.
This is the second most Republican district in Jersey barely trailing NJ-11 but Garrett trailed badly behind the rest of the ticket particularly in the most affluent sections in 2006. What happened? The voters left the race for the House blank in many towns and voted Republican up and down the ballot from there. In Alpine, the wealthiest town in the district (and a very small one) about 300 Republican voters left this race blank in 2006: about 20% of their total vote.
This poll shows something quite different. Republicans rallying around Garrett? I have my doubts. McCain yard signs are rare; Garrett yard signs are non-existent at least as of last weekend. Right before the election, a lot of Garrett signs popped up in Sussex last cycle. Remember, 2/3 of the district is in Bergen with the rest split about evenly between Sussex and Warren and a small chunk of Passaic.
Both NJ-5 and NJ-11 have little and I mean little activity as far as yard signs or comments go for Congress or even President. My own town is bursting with signs but they are for the town council (we have one for the two Democratic candidates on our lawn).
It is quite possible that Garrett has an early lead over Shulman. If the campaign, either campaign, takes hold that margin should change considerably.