Research 2000 for the Concord Monitor (9/22-24, likely voters):
Jeanne Shaheen (D): 50
John Sununu (R-inc): 41
Ken Blevens (L): 2
(MoE: ±4%)
There was some heartburn recently over a funky Rasmussen poll showing Sununu lunging ahead by seven points. Between this poll and yesterday’s UNH’s Granite State Poll that found Shaheen ahead by four points, I think it’s safe to call “outlier” on Rasmussen’s latest.
Research 2000 for the Concord Monitor (9/22-24, likely voters):
Carol Shea-Porter (D-inc): 44
Jeb Bradley (R): 43
(MoE: ±6%)
Paul Hodes (D-inc): 47
Jennifer Horn (R): 34
(MoE: ±6%)
UNH found Bradley leading by 45-42, and Hodes up by 38-26. I trust R2K more than the Granite State Poll, but both pollsters are finding similar spreads here — especially when you factor in the hefty 6% MoE. While I think we can dismiss a GOP internal showing Hodes leading by only 4 points as bunk, it certainly seems that Shea-Porter is in for a tough fight.
Bonus finding: R2K finds that Obama is leading McCain by a 48-44 margin statewide.
So I think Shaheen and Hodes are ahead, Obama is tied to slightly ahead of McCain, and CSP is just behind.
I can’t see this huge swing group voting for Jeanne Shaheen and then miraculously switching over to vote for Bradley for House.
Carol may have to get dragged over the finish line but dragged over she will be. I am not even fathoming the idea of that backwards oaf back in Congress representing me.
Not. For. A. Second.
Carol Shea-Porter over any line. She will win on her own merits, just as she did in 2006. In 2006 the polls showed her losing to Bradley.
The sampling in the UNH polls is seriously skewed. I have a hard time taking any poll that has a 6% moe seriously.