The Feldman Group for Christine Jennings (9/22-23, likely voters):
Christine Jennings (D): 40
Vern Buchanan (R-inc): 44
Undecided: 16
(MoE: ±4.9%)
The last time we saw poll numbers from this race, Buchanan posted an 18-point lead (48-30) in his own internal poll. The Feldman group has a dramatically different result, and also finds that the many, many lawsuits being filed against Buchanan or his business are beginning to take a toll on the incumbent: 78% of voters say they have “heard something” about Buchanan recently, and of those voters, 43% said it made them feel less favorably towards the incumbent, while only 23% say it made them feel more favorable. Additionally, only 39% say that Buchanan deserves re-election.
If this snapshot is accurate, Jennings has a fighting chance to pull off an upset here. I’d like to see it confirmed by another poll, but I’ll take the good news for now.
The full polling memo is available below the fold.
Is Jan Schneider still running as an independent in this race? (I couldn’t see anything to indicate that she isn’t.) Shouldn’t she be in the polls too… or is she really so marginal this year that she can be safely excluded?
That the 13th district is at best only our 5th best pickup opportunity in FL this year? Had Jennings let 2006 go and focused on 2008 I think her chances of winning would be much better. Ya, I know she really won in 2006, but the constant legal battles were pointless ad unnecessary.