81 thoughts on “Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?”

  2. The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee is 40% through its roll-out of what it holds to be 2008’s essential state legislative races – races with national party-building implications.  Among their thusfar revealed targets are several races in swing electoral states.  Their presence in swing electoral states is relevant to me because in my experience get-out-the-vote is effective when driven through driven state legislative candidates.  Targets in swing states include Joe Whitcomb (Colorado Senate District 23), Mary Ann Sullivan (Indiana House District 97), Gene Ficken (Iowa House District 23), Gretchen Lawyer (Iowa House District 36), Mick Holm (Montana House District 3), John Fleming (Montana House District 12), Marilyn Dondero Loop (Nevada House District 2), Kathy Sgambati (New Hampshire Senate District 4), Jennifer Brady (Ohio House District 16), and Scott Heidepriem (South Dakota Senate District 13).  I am making modest (as I am tapped) contributions selectively among these as the roll-out continues.

  3. How many of them will flatter only to deceive?

    The Sienna college poll came out this week covering 6 NY senate districts. Democrats have their work cut out. The state is tilting strongly democrat – Republicans are defending stubbornly. Democrats need to pick up 2 seats for majority in the senate. Among the candidates are two septuagenarians – Serphin Maltese in NYC (tied 42-42) and Caesar Trunzo in LI (leading 46-40). Truzo may be over 80. Boxer Mesi is leading comfortably in an upstate SD. Winning the NY senate is critical because the state will lose 2 CD’s after 2010. If dems win, there may not be more than 2 Republicans in congress from NY in 2012.

    There will be 2 Straniere vs Mcmahon races in Novemeber. Bob Straniere vs Michael Mcmahon for NY-13. Bob’s brother Phil Straniere is running for a judgeship from SI against Michael’s wife Judith Mcmahon.

    My biggest concerns:

    1. NH senate – Shaheen is not doing well in the polls.

    2. NH senate – Shaheen is not doing well in the polls.

    3. Al-05

    4. Kanjorski – will it help in other races if democrats come out against him?

    5. NH senate – Shaheen is not doing well in the polls.

    6. Where are the ads asking “Are you better off now than you were XYZ years ago?”

  4. I suspect Obama will get another boost in the polls after McCain’s tired and bumbling performance tonight.  So far this debate couldn’t be any better for Obama.

  5. McCain exposed himself as a weak, tired, rambling old man…it’s all about me and not what really needs to be done to save everything that is going in to the toilet…also, not really pleased with Jim Lehrer

  7. Does anyone know what is goin on in the GA-08 race?  The republicans supposedly had one of their best recruits of the year to challenge Marshall, but I’ve heard next to nothing on that race.  Marshall’s district is very conservative and he usually wins with slim margins.  I can’t imagine this one will be an easy win.

  8. 1. Whoever the fuck picked out McCain’s tie is going to be fired tonight.

    2. Earmarks, earmarks, earmarks. If McCain really wanted to go after Obama on fiscal issues, he should have said something about taxes. Unless you’re the Club for Growth, proper earmarks are a good thing.

    3. Did you see the Dem and Indy lines plummet whenever McCain talked about Iraq, staying in Iraq, troops in Iraq, basically anything he had to say about Iraq.

    4. McCain looked old and angry. Obama looked cool and confident.

    5. “Sen. Obama does not understand” got to be pretty condescending after about the 5th time McCain said it.

  9. In case you don’t know the story by now, here it goes:

    Wayne Gilcrest, a popular moderate Republican, represented this very Republican district for 20 years. In 2008 he was defeated in the primary by very conservative Republican Andy Harris. The Democrats, for the first time in years, have a formidable candidate in Frank Kratovil. Gilchrest just endorsed Kratovil. This district will certainly vote for McCain by a big margin, but here is why Kratovil can win:

    – Kratovil has the geography advantage. Maryland’s eastern shore is rural, conservative, culturally different from the rest of the state, and it doesn’t have enough people to get its own congressional district. The first district includes all of the eastern shore, and the conservative outer suburbs of Baltimore. Kratovil is from the Eastern Shore, Harris is from the Baltimore suburbs.

    – Protecting the Chesapeake Bay can be a winning issue for Democrats in this area. Andy Harris automatically supports the conservative position for every issue, even the environment.

    – Ending the Iraq war is a winning issue, even in a district as conservative as this one. But we won’t see another election year that’s this good for the Democrats for a long time, so we have to do it now.

    If Kratovil is going to win this conservative district, he needs to get some name recognition. So send him some support!

  10. Did you manage to find out more about Camp Obama?  Seems to be some sort of a two-day-long training thing, according to what I’ve read on the internet in news stories about it.

    And do you know more about when y’all are doing it?

  12. Ok, apparently I blinked or something because last time I checked this race would have required a massive blue tidal wave across Florida to have any shot of flipping but now it seems to be one of the hottest tossups in the nation.  I mean, yeah, I saw that Grayson poll, but that was just one poll and an internal no less, so surely something else must have happened.  I’d love to see Keller go the way of Clay Shaw, but can someone please cue to into why that’s a real possible in the first place?

  13. This is cut from an article posted today on Rothenberg’s blog relating to Butterborth donating money to one of Rep. Cazayooux’s opponents in LA-06.

    Naturally no mention was made of SSP’s blasting of Stu’s racist comments of our LA-07 candidate earlier in the week.

    http://www.rothenbergpolitical…


    After Jackson announced his Independent candidacy, Butterfield donated $500 to his campaign on July 26, after meeting the Louisiana legislator at a Congressional Black Caucus event. The contribution appeared on pre-primary Federal Election Commission reports filed nearly a month ago but went unnoticed until Swing State Project, a Democratic blog, pointed it out Wednesday morning.

  14. I wonder if the debate’s being held in Oxford has had any impact on the Musgrove campaign. Anybody heard anything from down there?  What about a MS boost for Obama?  I also think Gov. Barbour’s obvious pique at McCain could have an effect.

    1. Scott Heidepriem (South Dakota Senate District 13).

      When I saw that posting from the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee I made a semi-strenuous attempt to learn if he’s pro-choice, a major criterion for me in most races but especially critical in South Dakota.  I turned up a few challengers who are pro-choice, and I’ll post about them if I get time, but I never did find any source that tells which currently sitting incumbents are pro-choice. I can reconstruct a few from names that became prominent in 2006, but it would be awfully convenient to see a complete roster.

      Does anyone know of one?  

  16. State House of Representatives: MI-20

    Looking for my Rep., Marc Corriveau to survive his re-election bid.  If he can survive, he’ll likely cement his place in Lansing and hopefully be a top-tier challenger for Thad McCotter once he’s term-limited in 2012.  This is one of those down-the-road races that could mean one more Democratic Representative in a few years.

    MN-SEN

    Franken will be one of our best Senators, if we can only get him in.  The importance of this race can not be underestimated – once a Senator is re-elected, the gig is usually his until he gives up, goes insane or gets indicted.

    LA-01, 04, 06

    I love Southern populists, especially Louisianans.  It’s a visceral reaction, really.  I’m much further to the left than Jim Harlan, Paul Carmouche and Don Cazayoux, I can’t help but love them.  Maybe it’s the accent, or it’s just how awful the Republicans down there are, but these races are at the top of my radar.

  17. Dan Barret(D) vs. Mark Shelton(R).  This is a rematch of a special election from November 2007 to replace the retiring rep.  The district had been Republican for 20+ years but in a sign of the blueing of Texas, Barrett won.  It’s considered one of, if not the, top Texas House races this year.  It’s important for redistricting in 2010 and to get rid of our corrupt Speaker of the House and a host of other issues.  Barrett is hitting Shelton for his support for school vouchers and other attempts to funnel tax dollars away from public education.  Shelton is running again on an anti-illegal immigrant platform.  It’s also my district.  

    1. That article was posted by Nathan Gonzales a few days ago on Roll Call (that exact quote was actually in a SSP diary here).  Apparently Nathan Gonzales is also Rothenberg’s Political Editor, because Stu is too busy mocking long-shot Democratic candidates and penning racist editorials to be bothered with such trivialities or, you know, something.

  18. The New England Races!!!  NH-01 & 02, CT-04 & 05 (& 02 I guess – gotta love landslide Joe.  That was my district during the ’06 wave!)  I canvassed in NH-02 today, and was shocked at how few people knew who Paul Hodes even WAS, let alone if they would be voting for him.  I would really love for New England to be all-blue, but I’m cynical that NH-01 will just steal the title of “New England’s sole GOP-help seat” from CT-04 in the 111th congress.

    Other races: definitely NM-01 & 02, NV-02 & 03, AK-AL, WY-AL, and WV-02, cuz it’s uplifting to see all-blue house delegations in swing/GOP-friendly states.  CO-04 and WA-08 are personal faves, too, and c’mon, anything NY-13 is pure gold!

    Also, ANY senate races – love ’em all!

    Speaking of which, does anybody know what’s going on with senateguru lately??

  19. I’ve been curious about this for a while: how are we doing as far as state legislatures go? Are there any potential pickups (besided the NY senate)?

    While someone a while ago answered my question about Washington’s statewide races, what about Missouri and the rest?

  20. Commericals constantly for these two races in Orlando.

    FL-24: I’ve only seen on commerical for Feeney, and that’s him apologizing for his involvement with Abramoff. Meanwhile, Kosmas has been touting against Feeney voting for his own pay raises while not giving pay raises for the troops.

    FL-08: It’s been all Grayson on the TV thus far, I haven’t seen a damn thing from Keller other than some medium size road signs on Apopka Vineland on the way to work.

  21. The Ohio Legislature has national implications because of our obscenely gerrymandered U.S. House districts.

    And ALWAYS remember kids… What happens if the Electoral College ends in a tie….?

    The Ohio Senate is just hopeless. And that’s all I’m gonna say.

    In the Ohio House we are going to give back one seat because one member got ousted in a reelly dumb “scandal”

    (Turns out the Dem senator was into online porn and the moron did a presentation to a school class and flashed a naughty image on screen. To aggravate the felony, he tried to claim that it was his teenage son who downloaded the image {yeah, rrrright..} After he resigned, his appointed replacement discovered that he would actually be expected to {gasp!} do some fund raising and campaign for the seat, so he quit in a huff, late in the game. Thereby punting that seat back to the GOPers.)

    But despite that weird setback, we will probably still flip enough seats to (barely) get control. And since we captured the majority of the statewide executive positions in 2006, we should be able to control the redistricting and reapportionment processes.

    The one big concern is that the GOPers control ALL of the state Supremes.

  23. I’m getting the same vibe from Becky Greenwald’s campaign that I did from Tim Walz two years ago.  Sounds like Tom Latham is a little nervous for the first time in years.  Obama’s likely to win the district and could have some coattails.  This one could get interesting.  Anybody have any inside info about the race?

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