Siena College (9/11-17, likely voters):
SD-03
Brian Foley (D): 40
Caesar Trunzo (R-inc): 46
(MoE: ±4.9%)
SD-07
Craig Johnson (D-inc): 49
Barbara Donno (R): 25
(MoE: ±4.9%)
SD-15
Joseph Addabbo, Jr. (D): 42
Serphin Maltese (R-inc): 42
(MoE: ±4.9%)
SD-48
Darrel Aubertine (D-inc): 51
David Renzi (R): 31
(MoE: ±4.7%)
SD-56
Richard Dollinger (D): 38
Joseph Robach (R-inc): 49
(MoE: ±4.7%)
SD-61
Joseph Mesi (D): 40
Michael Ranzenhofer (R): 38
(MoE: ±4.6%)
The New York Senate is the last bulwark for the Republicans in New York, and Democrats have steadily chipped away at it. Republicans currently have a 31-29 edge, with 2 vacancies (one of which was the seat held by Joe Bruno, GOP senate leader since time immemorial).
New polling by Siena of six of the most hotly contested Senate seats suggests that the Dems are poised to take over the chamber in 2008. First, assume that the two vacancies are retained by the Dems and GOP respectively (SD-13 is a safe Dem district in Queens; SD-43, Bruno’s old seat, is in GOP-leaning Albany suburbs, and not a sure bet to stay red, although it wasn’t polled). That would push the vote count to 32-30 in favor of the GOP.
However, these polls see Dem Joseph Mesi picking up SD-61 in the Buffalo suburbs, held by the retiring Republican Mary Lou Rath. Net result? 31-31. Ordinarily, the tie would be broken by the Lieutenant Governor… but New York doesn’t have one right now, as the post was left vacant when David Paterson succeeded Eliot Spitzer. So then who takes over? Short answer: no one knows.
But… Joseph Addabbo is tied with incumbent Republican Serphin Maltese in SD-15, a heavily Democratic area in Queens (the same poll also asked presidential preferences in each district, and Obama leads McCain 49-31 in the 15th). Maltese also might suffer from the recent arrest of Democratic Assemblyman (but key Maltese ally, whose Assembly district covers part of the 15th) Anthony Seminerio on federal corruption charges. This could be the tiebreaker.
The remaining polls show the two Democratic freshmen elected in mid-term, Craig Johnson and Darrel Aubertine, cruising to re-election, while threatened GOP incumbents Caesar Trunzo and Joe Robach are holding onto decent-size leads.
I’m not familiar with their polling.
Caesar Trunzo and Serphin Maltese are straight out of a Raymond Chandler novel.
My dad grew up with the Addabbos and my aunt was married to Anthony Seminerio’s nephew.
I’m not surprised to see Obama not cracking 50 here. He will win the district something like 65-35, but this was a Hillary stronghold where Democrats are skeptical of Obama, but truly dislike McCain. I’m worried that Democrats may not turn out as high as they may in other parts of the country because there isn’t the same excitement about Obama here and there is elsewhere and that may hurt Addabbo.
Addabbo is also getting killed with disingenious, lying ads and the Maltese attack mailings have been non-stop.
However, this is a Siena poll and Siena polls are crap, so I don’t know. I truly believe Foley will easily defeat Trunzo.
Soon after we take the NY State senate. Probably quite a few republican retirements in 2009 and 2010 with their last vestige of power gone.
Not something you see every day. I think Trunzo will go down. He’s under 50 (and over 80… years old, that is), and I just think the blue wave will knock him over.
I thought I would check in here since I see New York State Senate races being talked about.
I have been writing about these races for some time now over at The Albany Project and I can tell you that the Siena poll told us what we already know: That the New York State Senate is looking more blue by the day.
In SD-3, Brian Foley (D) versus Sen. Caesar Trunzo (R) has an incumbent Republican who has two television ads without a single appearance from the candidate. Trunzo never appears in any of the ads. Foley has been working hard in the district. I have ranked this seat leans Democratic. Trunzo is 82 years old. Foley made this seat a top target of the Democrats from the start. That will continue.
SD-7 and SD-48 are both jokes. We have two Democratic incumbents in each district (SD-7 has Sen. Craig Johnson and SD-48’s Sen. Darrel Aubertine) where the Republicans are investing in sorry challengers. No one is stopping them from spending that money, especially in SD-7 where that prized Long Island seat that the Democrats took away in 2007 really irks Long Island Republicans, including Senate Majority Leader Dean Skelos.
SD-15 and SD-61 are both looking very good for the Democrats. Republican Serph Maltese is vulnerable. He narrowly won reelection in 2006 and this year looks like the year he will finally lose. SD-15 has a huge Democratic enrollment advantage, so that can help propel Democratic candidate Joseph Addabbo to victory. Joe Mesi in SD-61 has strong name recognition and will win Republican support. His Republican opponent is a career politician and county legislator who is not very well known in the district.
SD-56 is closer than the poll suggests. I was told after my analysis of that poll that I should go take a statistics class. Statistics had nothing to do with it. There are three key parts to SD-56: The Towns of Greece and Parma, the Town of Brighton and the City of Rochester. Robach’s home turf is Greece and he was winning, according to the poll, with 71 percent of the vote there. I contend that the sample from Greece was mostly Republican. I can tell you right now: Dollinger and Robach are running neck and neck. It’s a close race. It’s not a double-digit lead for Robach. Dollinger is still in it and can win it.
There are other races that we have great candidates running in but these are the most-talked about races. There are other races throughout the state that are close, but these races that Siena polled just happen to be the ones with the most publicity.
The Senate Majority Leader. Technically.
That’s what our state’s constitution says. The majority leader of the Senate serves as acting LG. Meaning, they do some of the things the LG does but isn’t officially LG. Joe Bruno tried to say that he got two votes because of this – one as a senator and one, in case of a tie, as LG. Dean Skelos, the current Republican majority leader, hasn’t really taken that line like Bruno did.
There has been legislation in the past that would address this problem. The legislation called for giving the governor a chance to name an LG to fill the vacancy, with that person being confirmed by the Assembly and Senate. However, the proposals have always been dead on arrival in the Senate. Big shocker there.