Mason-Dixon (9/22-25, likely voters):
Bruce Lunsford (D): 44
Mitch McConnell (R-inc): 45
(MoE: ±3.7%)
Mason-Dixon is seen by some as the “gold standard” of Southern polling, so these are some fantastic numbers for Bruce Lunsford. They also closely mirror a recent SUSA poll showing McConnell leading by only three points.
The underlying environment is a treacherous one for an incumbent according to the poll: 85% of voters feel the country is headed on the wrong track — the highest this measure has ever been since 1990. McConnell’s favorable/unfavorable rating is quite low (40-31), but Lunsford isn’t fairing a whole lot better (26-29). You don’t like to see a challenger with a higher unfavorable number than a favorable number, so that makes the head-to-head top lines all the more remarkable.
This one could be a real race.
(Hat-tip to MediaCzech for flagging this one.)
If they’ve released any Pres. numbers because if they show Obama within 10, it means its probably a bit of a shotty poll. But if he’s down 15-20, it might mean good things.
I had a diary up last week were I talked about states that could be #60 and I outright dismissed Kentucky. No one seemed to disagree with me on it, but perhaps I need to re-think that.
A new Courier-Journal Bluegrass poll has this race tied at 41-41…60 seats, here we come!!!
And yes, I believe she could be a powerful advocate in a place like Kentucky.
Taking out McConnell would do wonders for advancing a Democratic agenda, even if we don’t get to 60.
kyle? he’s been there how long, and can be tied to the present admin. they certainly wouldn’t choose mccain, would this finally be lamar!’s chance?
Has the economy really made this one a race again? That would be amazing but I’m not ready to believe yet.
First, it was Mississippi that was competitive in the bright red South, then North Carolina, then South Carolina, and now Kentucky? My goodness – who would have thought we could follow up 2006 with a year like this.
60 here we come.
I’ve barely looked at the KY race since MM is sitting on a mountain of $. With these two polls, however, I’m forced to pay attention, esp since one is Mason-Dixon. Could the credit crisis be stimulating the desire for change? No, I don’t think an Obama victory is likely or even possible there, but could Luns actually lunge into the Senate?
I also had no expectations about Kay Hagan initially, but she has proved me wrong. And if teetering Wachovia either goes down or convinces Citi to buy it, the resulting shock to Charlotte might push both Hagan AND Obama over the top. Louisville is hardly the banking center that Charlotte is, but I think it’s hard to tell what impact this crisis might produce.
In a local interview in Boston this past week, Zogby–yes, yes, I KNOW it’s Zogby!–predicted a landslide at the Pres level. But Bill Clinton said much the same thing recently. I’m wondering if they might be on to something not yet clear and if the desire for change might be SO great that people like Lunsford, Musgrove, and Franken (as well as the more obvious candidates) might sweep away much of the dead wood.
Yes, Lunsford is far from perfect, but if the Ensign has to move the firewall all the way back to Kentucky, that means a dozen seat pick-up isn’t out of the question. I’d gladly welcome a Senator Lunsford if doing so gets a couple of other challengers (Franken, Wicker, maybe even Allen, Martin, Rice, and/or Kleeb) across the finish line.
Yet another shameless plug for that IRC channel thing in my sig.
I’ve made it the race of the day due to these excellent polling numbers, as well as the article linked by James’s comment here: http://swingstateproject.com/s… .
No matter what you think about Lunsford, the best thing about this is that we might get revenge for Tom Daschle.
Since 20 January 2001 the republicans have busy shooting each other in the face. They just didn’t know it until now.