NJ-02, NJ-03: New Polls Show LoBiondo Way Ahead, Adler in Tight Race

Zogby International for the Press of Atlantic City and the Richard Stockton College (9/18-20, likely voters):

David Kurkowski (D): 26

Frank LoBiondo (R-inc): 62

Undecided: 12

(MoE: ±4.5%)

First off, note that this is from Zogby International, not the ridiculous internet-based polling of Zogby Interactive. The 2nd CD is a D+4 district that supported Gore by a wide margin, but gave Bush a single-point win in 2004. While this district seems ripe for a takeover attempt at some point, LoBiondo has tirelessly worked the constituent service side of his job over the years, and he retains some significant popularity at home. Don’t count on a shocking upset here.

And now for the open seat race in NJ-03:

John Adler (D): 37

Chris Myers (R): 39

Undecided: 22

(MoE: ±4.5%)

The only other poll we’ve seen of this race, a McLaughlin & Associates internal for Myers from earlier this month, showed a similarly close (but wide open) race: 33-29 for Myers. South Jersey, and this District in particular, isn’t accustomed to sending Democrats to the House of Representatives, so perhaps these numbers are an accurate snapshot of the race as it stands today — or at least, as it stood last week.

However, the poll was taken before the DCCC kicked in with a TV buy against Myers. It’s also a question of money — Adler held a commanding $1.46 million to $155K cash-on-hand advantage at the end of June. While Myers recently was aided by a fundraiser from his political hero, President Bush, he’s still playing catchup here.

Zogby finds Obama edging McCain by 46-44 in the 3rd CD. That would be a slight improvement over the two-point Bush win here in 2004, but not nearly the 54-43 Gore romp of 2000.