Stuart Rothenbergis probably the most conservative prognosticator when he classifies House, Senate and Gubernatorial races, which is why it’s big news that he has moved the Oregon Senate Race to “Lean Takeover” from “Toss-up”. He also did the same for Colorado and moved Lousiana and Kentucky to “Narrow Advantage for Incumbent Party”. Overall, four seats moved in our direction. Here is the summary below.
NOTE: In another columnhttp://rothenbergpoliticalreport.blogspot.com/2008/09/kentucky-senate-ratings-change-favors.html], said he would not argue with anyone who calls Kentucky a “toss-up”.
Here are our latest Senate ratings. Our latest estimate is a Democratic gain of 5-8 seats.
# = Moved benefiting Democrats
* = Moved benefiting RepublicansLikely Takeover (2 R, 0 D)
NM Open (Domenici, R)
VA Open (Warner, R)Lean Takeover (4 R, 0 D)
Smith (R-OR) #
Stevens (R-AK)
Sununu (R-NH)
CO Open (Allard, R) #Toss-Up (1 R, 0 D)
Dole (R-NC)Narrow Advantage for Incumbent Party (3 R, 1 D)
Coleman (R-MN)
Landrieu (D-LA) #
McConnell (R-KY) #
Wicker (R-MS)Clear Advantage for Incumbent Party (1 R, 0 D)
Collins (R-ME)Currently Safe (12 R, 11 D)
ID Open (Craig, R)
NE Open (Hagel, R)
Alexander (R-TN)
Barrasso (R-WY)
Chambliss (R-GA)
Cochran (R-MS)
Cornyn (R-TX)
Enzi (R-WY)
Graham (R-SC)
Inhofe (R-OK)
Roberts (R-KS)
Sessions (R-AL)
Baucus (D-MT)
Biden (D-DE)
Durbin (D-IL)
Harkin (D-IA)
Johnson (D-SD)
Kerry (D-MA)
Lautenberg (D-NJ)
Levin (D-MI)
Pryor (D-AR)
Reed (D-RI)
Rockefeller (D-WV)
Very surprising. Rothenberg is typically cautious in making moves like this one so he obviously senses Smith is in serious trouble.
Will be interesting to see if other outlets follow suit. I like Stu more than most around these parts and appreciate that he only has one race in the “toss-up” column. Many pundits overuse the toss up as a cop out to avoid making a prediction.
He just started running an ad talking about how Merkley won’t represent rural Oregon, an ad squarely aimed at his own base. That he feels insecure about that tells you a lot.
I wouldn’t call it Leans Merkley YET but I agree we’ll probably win…
that he had the LA-race up until now in the tossup category proofs his ignorance. He didnt take notice of any of the countless polls that showed Landrieu kicking Kennedy’s ass???