SurveyUSA for Roll Call (9/26-28, likely voters):
Kathy Dahlkemper (D): 49
Phil English (R-inc): 45
Undecided: 6
(MoE: ±4%)
Oh yeah. No wonder Philly has been producing so much flop sweat in recent weeks — the only two polls that have been publicly-released from this race (including a Dahlkemper internal) show the incumbent in brutal shape.
The DCCC has been pounding English hard over the airwaves for the past several weeks, and the NRCC responded in kind tonight with a media buy of their own. I’m betting that their internal polling numbers are similarly bad.
SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican, but I think a ratings update may be due.
Bonus finding: McCain leads Obama by 48-46 in this district — not a bad margin, considering that Bush beat Kerry by 53-47 here in 2004.
that’ll balance out a loss in Kanjorski’s district.
I’m surprised Obama is doing as well as he is here. No wonder he’s well ahead in Pennsylvania.
The Republican dummymander continues to pay dividends–to US.
I love it.
CQ moves AL-Sen from Republican Favored —> Safe Republican
Confused by the above reference to “Philly” flop sweat. PA-03 is anchored by Erie, PA which is 369 miles from Philadelphia – the opposite corner of the state. To give you some perspective, New York City and Washington, DC are 206 miles apart.
I would not assume the Democrats will have any role in the redistricting process in PA after the 2010 census. It is all political and depends on which party has the Governor and the majorities in the state House and state Senate. State Senate is overwhelmingly Republican and will not change. The Dems hold a one-seat advantage in the state House for the first time in many years and are at risk of losing the bare majority on November 4. The Governor is current Democrat Ed Rendell but his second term ends in 2010 and the NEXT governor will be the key. PA traditionally switches the Governor’s office between parties every 8 years and if history holds true it will be a Republican Governor who will help redistrict before the 2012 elections. Unfortunately, I think the odds are greater than not that the Republcians will control all 3 levers for redistricting, just as they did 10 years before.