Momentum Analysis for Chris Carney (9/29-10/1, likely voters, 8/19-21 in parens):
Chris Carney (D-inc): 50 (54)
Chris Hackett (R): 36 (27)
(MoE: ±4.9%)
Hackett has actually made a lot of headway since August, cutting a 27-point lead down to 14. But in a district this red (R+8), the contest was bound to tighten. The numbers are not far off from a recent Lycoming College poll showing Hackett up by a 46-36 margin.
SSP currently rates this race as Lean Dem.
It was bound to happen, but I would think the financial crisis would have slowed Hackett’s momentum.
A contemporaneous SUSA poll showed Hackett within 5.