LA-02, LA-04: Primary Results Thread

RESULTS: Associated Press | LA SoS

Polls have now closed in Louisiana; we’ll be following the results in this thread.

12:25AM: 464 precincts in, and it’s 25 Jefferson, 20 Moreno, 17 Richmond. 28 precincts outstanding, but it looks like we’re headed for a Jefferson-Moreno runoff, which is probably what Jefferson was hoping for.

11:51PM: 356 of 492 precincts reporting in LA-02, and it’s 25 Jefferson, 22 Moreno, 16 Lee, 15 Richmond.

11:44PM: 2 precincts remaining in LA-04, and Carmouche has topped off at 48%. Damn. I was really hoping to avoid a runoff here.

11:35PM: 23 precincts remaining in LA-04, and Carmouche is at 47.5%. I don’t think he has enough gas in the tank to avoid a runoff against Willie Banks, my friends.

11:19PM: Over in LA-04, Carmouche has pulled up to 47%, with 42 precincts in Bossier outstanding. Bossier has been breaking pretty heavily for the ‘Mouche, but will it be enough to escape a runoff?

11:11PM: 247 precincts reporting. 26 Jefferson, 22 Moreno, 17 Lee, 14 Richmond. James Carter is also getting a decent share of the vote in Orleans Parish (where most of the outstanding votes are), though it doesn’t look like it’ll be enough to get him into the top two.

10:58PM: It’s now 26 Jefferson, 23 Moreno, 20 Lee in LA-02 with 171 precincts in. Richmond fell back a bit to 13.5%.

10:55PM: Fleming is now just nosing Gorman by less than 80 votes in LA-04, but that race is definitely headed for a nasty runoff. Carmouche is sitting at 46% with 93 precincts left, mostly from Bossier Parish but also 18 from Caddo.

10:45PM: 152 precincts in, and Jefferson leads with 27%, followed by Moreno at 22, Lee at 17, and Cedric Richmond now at 15.

10:23PM: 78 precincts in, and Jefferson has pulled ahead over Moreno by 27-24, with Lee sitting at 22. In LA-04, Fleming now has a 41-36 lead over Gorman.

10:17PM: 55 precincts in, and while Lee has taken a small lead over Moreno, Dollar Bill has closed the gap: 26.6-26.1-25.6.

10:11PM: 29 precincts reporting now in LA-02, and it’s a 31-30-22 race between Moreno, Lee, and Jefferson. Over in LA-04, I’m a bit less confident in my earlier prediction that Carmouche would hit 50% tonight, but we’ll see. He’s at 44% right now with a little under one-half counted.

10:05PM: He did it! With only 121 of 506 precincts reporting in LA-01, Jim Harlan has already surpassed Gilda Reed’s vote haul in the May special election. Hooray.

10:00PM: 13 precincts reporting in LA-02, and it’s dramatically closer three-way race between Moreno, Lee, and Jefferson: 681-658-525. In LA-04, Carmouche is at 43%, and Fleming has a 40-36 lead over Gorman.

9:50PM: Alright, a few more votes have been counted, and Jefferson has 13%. Former TV anchor Helena Moreno, the lone white candidate in this primary, has an early 38-28 lead over Jefferson Parish Councilman Byron Lee.

9:47PM: Also amusing. With a single precinct reporting and 37 votes tallied in LA-02, Bill Jefferson has zero votes.

9:45PM: Amusing. With 77 of 640 precincts reporting in LA-04, the third-ranked candidate in the Democratic primary, John Milkovich, has more votes than the leader of the GOP primary, John Fleming (3087 to 2963 votes).

9:43PM: Here’s my question: Will Jim Harlan score more votes in the LA-01 Democratic primary than Gilda Reed won in the May special election for this seat? The magic number: 10,142 votes.

9:30PM: Some early results from LA-04 with just 2% reporting: physician John Fleming is up over trucking executive Chris Gorman by 41-37, with Bossier Chamber of Commerce President Jeff Thompson in third. On the Democratic side, Caddo Parish DA Paul Carmouche is sitting at 44%. With very few votes counted from Caddo (Shreveport) so far, I’d expect him to hit 50% and avoid a runoff against his lesser-known opponents.

49 thoughts on “LA-02, LA-04: Primary Results Thread”

  4. I expect Moreno to come in first.  Jefferson will finally be defeated.  Second will be between Cedric Richmond or Byron Lee.  Even though the district is largely African-American, I think that Moreno has the ability to win here outright during the second round.

  5. and william “mr. F.” jefferson is at 13%.  i remember in the 2006 runoff he started off weak until the end, and it could just be a bad precinct for him, but come on, get rid of him LA-02!

  7. It would be this one. Jesus Christ, New Orleans needs to stop re-electing their crooked Representative, especially when we can get a real progressive in there…

  8. has taken the lead dammit    anyway to find out if these are areas where he will do well vs areas he won’t??

    I assume each candidate here has a base of support.  

  9. I was rooting for Cedric Richmond but looks like he’ll lose and we’re looking at the worst case scenario, Dolla Bill vs Moreno who has VERY suspect Democratic credentials (IE she’s getting funded by Bush’s finance chair and many of her staffers used to work for Vitter). In that case I couldn’t honestly say that Jefferson is the far worse alternative. He’ll be convicted soon and will have to resign anyways.

    So I’m rooting for Byron Lee now, I could get behind him in the runoff for sure.

  10. Congressman Jim McCrery endorsed Jeff Thompson.  The way the race is going, it looks like Thompson won’t even make it to the runoff.  Does anyone know of another instance where a Congressman’s designated successor didn’t get out of the primary?

  11. 12,355 13.85% Bruce C. Kincade (I)

    22,116 24.80% Kenneth L. Odinet, Sr. (R)

    35,507 39.82% John F. Schwegmann (I)

    19,201 21.53% Eric Skrmetta (R)

    Schwegmann and Odinet are former Democrats.

  12. So I took a peek at Fleming’s website.

    A fairtaxer!

    Yes!

    I’m rooting for Fleming now, he’ll be easy to attack

  15. Lee is fading fast and isn’t going to make the cut.  Richmond has surged like 10% in the last 2 updates.  I think he will catch Moreno too.  

    The question becomes  can Richmond beat Jefferson in a runoff

  16. Richmond fell back because those votes came from jefferson Parish,  where he is doing pretty lousy.  Only 800 and change out of 70 something precincts.  He’s more than 2,000 votes behind Jefferson and Morenoa and 3,000 back on Lee.

    Lee though, is doing even worse with Orleans Parish,  where Richmond is running a strong second.  This is why I think Richmond will pass Lee,  but I can’t tell if he will Pass Moreno   who is also running well in orleans.  

  18. If no formal endorsement – was there any financial contribution made to any candidate?

    I get the feeling that William Jefferson will continue to represent the honesty and integrity of the CBC for 2 more years.

    I would like to admit a mistake. I said earlier that the Wachovia deal would boost Hayes (in NC-08). I should have asked if the Wachovia deal was going to boost Hayes.

  19. My back of the envelope calculations, say he would need more than 100% of the vote in the outstanding precincts to avoid a runoff.  Too bad he’s wasting time and money on this.

  20. make it to the next round. Moreno the Republican and Jefferson the Criminal.

    Damn.

    Let’s hope Jefferson resigns soon into the new Congress and we can get someone good like Richmond in.

  22. It looks like she would be Republican-lite on everything except the hurricane-related stuff that a representative has to be good on to represent this part of the country, and perhaps on health care.

    She doesn’t even have a policy paper on the economy, and her one on Iraq uses the classic triangulation of “A timetable for leaving Iraq perhaps is not the most prudent decision without first conferring with commanders on the ground.”  Umm yeah, thank you, Sarah Palin.

    I’d still kind of rather see her win, just to show that we can  walk the walk in fighting the culture of corruption.  I sincerely doubt she can find 50% of the electorate, though.  If she does get through, she’d better have a spirited primary challenger waiting for her in 2010.

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