Public Policy Polling (10/4-5, likely voters, 9/27-28 in parens):
Kay Hagan (D): 49 (46)
Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 40 (38)
Christopher Cole (L): 5 (6)
(MoE: ±2.8%)
Wow. PPP’s Tom Jensen has more:
In a state like North Carolina with a large Democratic registration advantage, a Republican candidate has to peel off a lot of voters from the other party to win statewide. But Elizabeth Dole is barely winning more of the Democratic vote- 12%- than Kay Hagan is taking of the Republican vote- 9%. Add in a 44-33 lead for Hagan with independents and it’s the recipe for a near double digit lead for the Democratic challenger.
Hagan is also making strong in roads in rural North Carolina- where John McCain has a 16 point lead over Barack Obama, Dole has just a five point advantage over Hagan. Our polling, both public and private, has also found that Hagan is playing extremely well with the state’s quickly expanding group of suburban voters. She may well be the standard bearer of the profile of candidate who’s going to be successful statewide in 21st century North Carolina.
Remarkably, Obama has pulled up to a 50-44 lead over McCain according to the same poll. If Obama wins North Carolina, there is just no chance for Liddy Dole. It’s no small wonder that Freedom’s Crotch is hitting the panic button and dumping $750K in attack ads against Hagan this week.
Obama and Hagan could provide coattails for all sorts of down-ticket Dems.
Besides NC-8, I wonder if this puts any of our other Congressional races in serious play. It would be great to see some new polling on our various GOP incumbents, especially NC-10, NC-8, and NC-5.
Because I’m such a nice guy, I won’t be saying “I told you so” until November 5. 🙂
like to know about the statewide races in NC other than the Senate and the Gov.
That simply won’t go away. Kay Hagan will make a solid US Senator.
How would have guessed that our Black presidential nominee and our Senate challenger would have to drag our gubernatorial nominee to victory in NORTH CAROLINA?! Crazy stuff.
I might be tempted to move this above Alaska very soon.
holy shit balls.
My jaw literally dropped and I realized I was at work (library) and that a patron was coming over to check a book out so I almost looked like a weirdo who seems to have a mouth that doesnt stay closed…
She’s done. My new number 5, North Carolina, the new Alaska.
Holy crap…. I dont see how an incumbent can come back from this without a game changer.
How sad is it for the Republican party that on election day, they are already expected to lose 6 seats right off the bat.
That 9 seat pick-up is looking pretty achievable again…
No schadenfreude. Just want to know what they are thinking.