NC-Sen, NC-Gov: SUSA Polls Show Close Races

SurveyUSA (10/5-7, likely voters, 9/6-8 in parens):

Kay Hagan (D): 43 (40)

Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 44 (48)

Chris Cole (L): 7 (7)

(MoE: ±4%)

SurveyUSA has been noticeably friendlier to Dole than most other pollsters in this state, and this release is no exception — it’s the first poll in several weeks to give Dole an edge (albeit an extremely marginal one). The important thing to note is the trend line, and it’s favoring Hagan.

NC-Gov:

Bev Perdue (D): 45 (41)

Pat McCrory (R): 46 (49)

Mike Munger (L): 5 (5)

(MoE: ±4%)

No surprise: this race is extremely close. A PPP poll released earlier today gave Perdue a 3-point lead, so either result is plausible.

And in the Presidential race, McCain leads Obama by 49-46, that’s down from the ridiculous 58-38 lead that McCain posted in SUSA’s September poll.

9 thoughts on “NC-Sen, NC-Gov: SUSA Polls Show Close Races”

  1. Bu it is odd how they seem to favor Obama/Dems in some states and McCain/Repubs in others. No middle ground from Survey USA – they either nail it or are astronomically way out there.

  2. This poll, while giving Democrats a 5 point advantage this time instead of a 1 last time around, is still vastly underrepresenting Democrats. Registration (of course, I don’t know after the recent wave of new registration which has greatly boosted Dem numbers) stands at more like 4633.

  3. From Political Wire:

    “The latest SurveyUSA poll in North Carolina shows Sen. John McCain edges Sen. Barack Obama, 49% to 46%, assuming black turnout is 20% on Election Day.

    “However, if black turnout increases by 10%, to 22% of the electorate, the race is tied.

    “Meanwhile, the poll also shows Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R-NC) barely ahead of challenger Kay Hagan, 44% to 43%.”

    This survey shows whites as 76% of the electorate, blacks as 20%. The population overall is 75% white, 22% black. Hispanics make up 6-7% of the population, yet are only 2% in the poll.

    In a racially polarized southern state, any poll is suspect when its racial numbers are off by 3 or4 points.

    If Obama is still fighting for the state on November 3rd, then come the next day black turnout should soar and he stands a decent chance at winning. There’s also no way Kay Hagan only gets 73% of the black vote. I think she’s probably ahead here by a couple points, but its still close.

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