http://www.centerforpolitics.o…
Larry Sabato is one of he best political analysts around. He was dead-on predicting the races in 2006. Even giving all the tossups to McCain would still mean an Obama victory.
His new column up today has the following EV breakdown:
Obama – 278
McCain – 174
Tossups – 86
2004 red states for Obama – NV,CO,NM
2004 blue states for McCain – None
Tossup States – FL,MO,OH,VA,NC
he got the senate races, but there wasn’t a whole lot of gues work there. only even seats were realistically up for grabs on our sides, and the wind was against the republicans. the house though, while he got the right number, he guessed wrong when it came to the actual races. many of the races he aid we’d win, we lost, and he didn’t see a lot of races coming. he picked a big, but realistic number, and got lucky.
I don’t care what the polls say about Ohio it’s going to be close. Probably the 04 results but in reverse with Obama taking 51 and McCain 49.
The race is liable to tighten by a point or 2 before the election and McCain will narrowly keep MO and win NC by about 5.
That’s 338 electoral votes. Not too shabby for a black “muslim”!
than in 2004! And this is happening across the country, in 19 different states including many swing-states (NV, OH, FL, etc.)!
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10…
How the hell is Obama supposed to win if all of the new registrants get purged?
This is infuriating and very depressing, you get the impression it will be near impossible to beat the Republicans because they have gamed the system, and even if Obama does miraculously pull it out, we’ll have lost multiple Senate races that we should have won, and perhaps dozens of house races too!