SurveyUSA (10/6-7, likely voters, 8/26-28 in parens):
Ashwin Madia (D): 46 (41)
Erik Paulsen (R): 43 (44)
David Dillon (IP): 8
(MoE: ±4%)
These numbers aren’t far off from a recent DCCC internal poll showing Madia leading by 44-39. SUSA still seems to have a questionably GOP-tilted sample of young voters (they break for Paulsen by a 51-40 margin in this poll), but that might be offset by a possibly-skewed 53-38 Madia lead among 50-to-64 year-olds.
Interestingly, Tom Scheck over at Minnesota Public Radio writes that the NRCC has scaled back their mid-October ad rotation in support of Paulsen, though the committee still has $216,450 in reserved time available. Are they shifting that scrilla to any number of their many incumbents in tight races?
Bonus finding: Obama leads McCain by 49-47 in this district. Bush beat Kerry here by 51-48 in 2004. Crosstabs are available here (PDF).
winning 18-34 year olds by pretty good margins. are 18-34 year old more conservative in MN? is it the landline effect? or does survey usa just suck when it comes to gauging the youth vote?
and hold it for a long time.
Let’s hope Obama’s coattails will carry over to the 6th district so that we can oust the wacky Michelle Bachmann. I don’t know how the Dem candidate is faring in there, though.
Wasn’t Paulsen another one of the republicans few supposedly star recruits this cycle?