From CQ Politics:
Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy, who narrowly lost to Republican Rep. Deborah Pryce last November in Ohio’s Columbus-centered 15th District, will run again in 2008.Kilroy – an elected commissioner in Franklin County, which includes Columbus – sent a letter to political supporters this week informing them of her decision, according to a statement her campaign office released Thursday afternoon.
“I want to finish this campaign,” Kilroy told CQPolitics.com in an interview. “I want to continue this campaign and bring this home so that the people of the 15th District get the kind of representation they deserve.”
As she did in her last effort, Kilroy’s 2008 rematch bid will focus heavily on her opposition to President Bush and his policies in Iraq – and will link Pryce to an administration that remains mostly unpopular.
Kilroy managed to lose a race in 2006 that many predicted (in the home stretch) she’d win, albeit by a razor-thin margin of 1062 votes. For that reason, I’m a little hesitant to automatically support a rematch, as previous heavy-spending four-year campaigns run by candidates such as Lois Murphy in PA-06 and Diane Farrell in CT-04 fell just short of producing Democratic victories in a blue wave year. This isn’t meant as a knee-jerk knock against second-rounders, as folks like Jerry McNerney, Paul Hodes, and Nancy Boyda took the hard lessons of their 2004 defeats and turned them around into 2006 victories. But: A) they had the advantage of running for the second time in a wave year, and B) excluding Boyda, Hodes and McNerney ran underfunded, low-profile ’04 contests, practically allowing them to introduce themselves to district voters in 2006 for the first time all over again. Kilroy will have the name recognition advantage, for sure, but she’ll also carry with her the baggage that millions of dollars of four years of brain-numbing media oppo brings.
Discuss.
As an aside: the bigger problem with the Ohio map is the Republican gerrymander that has split the Democratic-leaning Franklin County (which includes the Democratic city of Columbus) between Pryce’s 15th and Republican Pat Tiberi’s 12th. Kilroy edged Pryce by a 52-48 margin in their share of the county last November, while Democrat Bob Shamansky (a sentimental favorite of SSP) only lost by a 49-51 margin to Tiberi in the rest of the county. Swaths of Republican “heartland” tacked on to the cleaved Franklin county has denied Columbus fair represenatation for years. Oh, the powers of the redistricting process. Speaking of which, Ohio Democrats are only five seats short of majority status in the Ohio House, which is a far cry from their 2006 position of being 21 seats short of control. With the Senate looking somewhat out of immediate reach, it would be nice if we could snatch control over one half of the state’s legislature to gain some leverage during the next round of redistricting.
Race Tracker: OH-15
We have to get that in 2008.
Im not sure about Kilroy. To her credit, the race was highly underpolled. Just one poll taken during in early October during the Foley outbreak had Kilroy ahead. The other two had Pryce ahead.
ran a quirky campaign, however, and Deborah Pryce did outspend her by a 2:1 margin, I believe. Pryce’s ads were original, a bit corny and in one instance just campy, but they were not standard ads. Her website was also a bit cluttered. But I believe she still has a campaign message, especially as Deborah Pryce has not become the moderate she promised voters she would be during the campaign. One also has to wonder if Pryce will raise the amount she did in 2006 now that she is no longer a member of the Republican leadership. It will be an interestng race for sure. She should do it.
always as part of a Republican strategy to prevent a Democrat from getting elected. But the Columbus area has been becoming more Democratic, so now they’re in danger of losing both seats (both OH-12 and OH-15 just barely went for Bush in 2004), and they might consider doing what Republicans did in Northern Virginia this past census. Alexandria and Arlington used to be split into two districts, because 20 years ago, Fairfax, Loudoun and Prince William were Republican enough to make two pretty Republican seats if Alexandria and Arlington were split. Now that’s no longer possible, so they put as much Dem territory in VA-8 as possible.
And I believe redistricting power in Ohio isn’t affected by which party controls the houses of the state legislature. I believe the tiebreaker fifth person on the redistricting commission is chosen by the holder of a statewide office.
People can donate to her 2008 campaign as of now via via her new fundraising link.
and it’s going to take a perceieved moderate from either party to keep it. There is considerable speculation that Pryce will not run again, and there is always the fear that Kilroy is tainted by the nasty 2006 campaign. Another county comissioner, Paula Brooks, has also expressed interest in running for the seat. It will be interesting to see how it all plays out.