Anzalone Liszt for Bobby Bright (10/5-7, likely voters, 8/3-6 in parens):
Bobby Bright (D): 46 (50)
Jay Love (R): 45 (40)
(MoE: ±4.9%)
Bright leads among Independents (51-37), and has a higher favorable rating than Love (58-27 compared to Love’s 50-33), but the race has definitely tightened — thanks to Freedom’s Crotch and the NRCC doubling down, no doubt. However, Anzalone also finds that, by a 2:1 margin, voters say their opinion of Bright has become more favorable over the past two weeks, with the mirror opposite true for Love.
There’s one important piece of information to note — Anzalone uses a 25% African-American sample in their polling, which they consider a “conservative” estimate of the black vote (the district’s African-American registration is around 28%). The DCCC is on the ground in AL-02 right now, paying for field staff to help get out as many votes as possible for Bright. This one could be close.
The full polling memo is available below the fold.
I knew Bright’s early leads were too good to be true. His best hope is that African Americans show up in greater than expected numbers for Obama and also vote for him.
I expect African American turnout on election day will be 80%. When they vote for Obama, they will also vote for Democratic candidates down-ticket. In southern states with large black populations, this will push competitive Democratic challengers over the top, including Hagan (NC), Musgrove (MS), Martin (GA), and Bright (AL-02).
is quite capable. i feel great about Bright
The crosstabs in quite a few polls seem to be overstating black support for McCain. Check out this new AL-Pres poll from SUSA. It has Obama taking the black vote in AL by only a 82-16 margin. In 2004 Kerry won the black vote 91-6 in that state. If anyone thinks Obama wins less than 95% of the black vote there they are crazy.
http://www.surveyusa.com/clien…
African American turnout could push both Bright and Segall over top in their close races