VA-02, WV-02: Drake, Capito Post Sizable Leads

Two more polls from the Great Orange Satan tonight. Let’s pop open the hood and have a look.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/7-8, likely voters):

Glenn Nye (D): 37

Thelma Drake (R-inc): 51

Undecided: 12

(MoE: ±5%)

This is an R+6, military-heavy district that is often seen as a something of a bellwether for statewide contests (and according to this poll, McCain is leading Obama by 51-42), though keep in mind that even Jim Webb lost this district by a few points in 2006. This district is about 20% black, and that population is more dispersed and difficult to turn out than in other parts of the state — and, according to the Cook Political Report, African-American turnout has been in the 10-15% range of the electorate in recent election. The black turnout is pretty key to Nye’s chances, and it’s hard to gauge this poll without knowing its racial breakdown. A recent Nye internal pegged this race at five points.

And over in West Virginia… Research 2000 (10/7-8, likely voters):

Anne Barth (D): 39

Shelley Moore Capito (R-inc): 53

Undecided: 8

(MoE: ±5%)

Barth has a lot of work to do, clearly, but at least the spread is a lot closer than the “2-1 Capito lead” that Stuart Rothenberg was writing about last month (presumably he was talking about Capito’s own polling).

Most interesting, though, are the Presidential numbers: McCain leads Obama by 48-41 in the 2nd District. That’s not quite the 57-42 win that Bush posted here in 2004.

SSP currently rates VA-02 as Lean Republican and WV-02 as Likely Republican.