Mason-Dixon for the Las Vegas Review-Journal (10/8-9, likely voters, 6/9-11 in parens):
Dina Titus (D): 40 (42)
Jon Porter (R-inc): 43 (45)
Other: 4
Undecided: 13
(MoE: ±6.4%)
The last couple of polls we’ve seen from this district, both of them Anzalone Liszt internals from July and September, have both shown Titus leading by four and nine points, respectively. (Even Porter’s own internal poll showed him leading by only a 41-39 margin.)
The best news for Porter in this poll is Titus’ favorability rating, which clocks in at 37-46 (compared to 40-34). The RGJ speculates that Porter’s hits against Titus are giving him the same kind of traction that Jim Gibbons got in his gubernatorial campaign against Titus in 2006. In the latest Anzalone poll of this race, those numbers were flipped: Titus had a 50-37 favorable score, while Porter was only at 44-41.
In any case, no incumbent is in a good position at 43% in the polls, and Porter will have to slog this one out on his own for a little while before the NRCC kicks in on his behalf.
SSP currently rates this race as a Tossup.
Bonus finding: Obama leads McCain by 47-45 statewide.
Their Pres. numbers also show a much tighter race than other pollsters have shown it.
only 236 people. The Anzalone-List poll from September was 500 people districtwide. Hasn’t Mason-Dixon’s polling been strangely unfavorable to us lately? I believe their latest Virginia poll has McCain up 2. I’ll wait for more independent polling before I believe that Porter is still in this.
That’s the tini.
What’s next? They’ll have a 10 person sample and call it a poll?
I cant see Titus not winning.
If Obama wins Nevada, that means his coattails can also push Jill Derby over the top in District 3.