The vaunted McCain campaign “re-boot” is now in its second day, and at this point it’s looking like they’re just hitting ctrl-alt-delete over and over again as white smoke pours out the back of the computer… and their malaise seems to be dragging down the Congressional ballot too. Perhaps that comes as no surprise to us in the lefty blogosphere, but now mainstream purveyors of the conventional wisdom are starting to move this story to the forefront, such as Politico, with not one but two stories on this front today.
For starters, the NRSC is getting a financial bailout of its own: from the RNC. (Talk about robbing Peter to pay Paul.) The RNC is prepared to tap its $5 million line of credit, not to save McCain but to head off the possibility of a 60-seat Democratic caucus in the Senate with huge ad buys of their own.
And with the House and Senate Republican campaign committees being drastically outspent by their Democratic counterparts, and outside groups such as Freedom’s Watch offering far less help than was once anticipated, Republicans are turning to the national party committee as a lender of last resort.
A decision is imminent because television time must be reserved and paid for upfront, and available slots are dwindling.
This won’t be a direct allocation of funds to the NRSC, since the NRSC and RNC are prohibited by law from coordinating independent expenditures (such as where to run ads or their content). But the RNC can easily deduce from previous NRSC buys and public polling where their advertising help is needed. This money isn’t coming out of funds that were previously designated for McCain, but it’s telling that for the home stretch they’d rather tap their emergency stash for Senate triage, rather than bolstering McCan’t’s fading chances. (As an indication how far we’ve come, I idly speculated on this very possibility back in June, and got laughed out of the building.)
Politico also delves into the corresponding mess at the NRCC, where highly touted recruits like Darren White (NM-01) and Erik Paulsen (MN-03) are apparently being left to fend for themselves in the coming weeks as the NRCC’s meager holdings are divvied up among endangered veterans.
I did a bit of a double-take when seeing the example they gave:
GOP Reps. John B. Shadegg of Arizona, Lee Terry of Nebraska, Henry Brown Jr. of South Carolina and Dan Lungren of California are all fighting for their political lives, a reversal of fortunes that has caught even the most astute campaign observers by surprise.
The GOP is publicly confessing to being worried about the challenges posed by Linda Ketner (SC-01) and Bill Durston (CA-03)? Either this is the most monumental of all head-fakes, or they’re looking up at a tsunami that even we at SSP are underestimating. Other names cited in the article as causes for concern include Lee Terry, Mark Souder (both victims of recent huge DCCC expenditures), Dana Rohrabacher, David Dreier, and Brian Bilbray, all of whom would be well behind a GOP firewall any other year.
This one made me laugh pretty hard.
The latest potential GOP casualties could have been seen previously listed on either the “Likely R” or the “Races To Watch” sections on SSP’s House Race Ratings. We are on the fringes but still within the fringes of the possible. SSP, by process of elimination, lists 122 safe Reublican seats.
The latest from other blog sites is going far beyond that. I saw one diary touting Democratic chances in the R+16 MD-6, the most rock-ribbed Republican district in the Northeast. Circle the wagons folks. This is an aged Republican, Roscoe Bartlett, but not a Club For Growth Hot Head.
Past gerrymanders are coming home to roost as those R+5 districts in VA or similar (or closer) districts in Florida, Ohio, and PA are now all in play. Remarkably, a few districts like DE-At Large (D+7) or FL-10 (D+1) are still “safe.” Or are they? If the wind is blowing this hard some generic Democrat in a clearly Democratic district like Karen Hartley-Neagle might cruise to victory on the label alone.
ain’t goin’ no where dontcha know? the others, who knows?
I was really hoping that Rossi’s latest scandle would give Gregoire some movement, but it doesn’t seem to be the case.
http://www.surveyusa.com/clien…
Nearly all undecides in the poll are dems and indies, so that’s good news.
http://www.surveyusa.com/clien…
Obama has broken the WA Pres. race open big. Too bad it doesn’t seem to boost Gregoire.
Given the complete lack of public polling of many ‘non-competitive’ House races, there will be some shockers the night of Nov 4. How many of those 120+ “Safe” GOP seats are really safe in a year like this?
Remember how it felt in November 1994? Democrats stayed home in droves, and Republicans turned out in a frenzy of hate and misinformation that continues to this day.
My congressman in NC-4, David Price, lost that day. He has served the Triangle in Congress since 1986, except for that one term. That loss was stunning and unexpected.
2008 is going to deliver some surprises like that – except that the Democrats will be on the winning side this time.