WA-Gov: Gregoire Has Narrowest of Leads

SurveyUSA (9/21-22, likely voters, 9/21-22 in parentheses):

Chris Gregoire (D-inc): 48 (50)

Dino Rossi (R): 47 (48)

(MoE: ±4.3%)

Nothing ever seems to budge the numbers in this race: the financial crisis, the implosion of Team McCain (the same sample finds Obama is up 56-40 in Washington, so Obama’s adding to his lead without extending coattails), allegations of illegal campaign coordination between Rossi and the builders’ lobby, nothing. Gregoire maintains her tiny edge from the previous SUSA poll, as the numbers bounce around within the margin of error.

Part of this, as both Matt Stoller and I discussed in our ruminations on what’s the matter with WA-08, is that Washington seems less affected by the economic downturn than most other places, leaving people less eager to dissociate with the Republicans as has happened at a national level. But also, as I’ve said repeatedly, people’s minds were already made up about this year’s race four years ago during the protracted recount, and the long-term hardened attitudes explain why undecideds are always so low in this race.

UPDATE: The GOP just money-bombed this race; the numbers are huge. The BIAW (Building Industry Association of Washington) just pumped in $4 million, and the Republican Governor’s Association put in another $3.5 million. That brings Rossi’s cash haul to date, including all independent expenditures, up to $22 million (compare with Gregoire’s $16 million). The ads are already at a complete saturation point, so I don’t know how much more effective that will be in swaying that last 2-3% of undecideds, but damned if they aren’t going to go all in, trying to do it.