Anzalone Liszt (10/13-15, likely voters, July in parens):
Jim Esch (D): 46 (40)
Lee Terry (R-inc): 47 (50)
Undecided: 7 (9)
(MoE: ±4.9%)
And here are the Presidential numbers:
Barack Obama (D): 44 (42)
John McCain (R): 48 (46)
Undecided: 8 (12)
Wow. These are ground-shaking numbers. No wonder Lee Terry has been fishing so furiously for “Obama-Terry voters” — he might need a few to survive this November.
Terry’s favorables: 54-39 (down from 60-33), while Esch is at 51-30 (from 35-13 in July). Terry’s job approval rating has also taken a dive — from 60-34 in July to 53-43 today. With the DCCC currently pounding Terry on the airwaves, these numbers could fall even further.
Update: One thing that’s worth mentioning is the sample’s composition. This poll pegs the African-American vote at 4%, while the population of the 2nd District is 10.2% black according to the Almanac of American Politics. If those voters turn out, they could tip the balance here.
Partial crosstabs given exclusively to the Swing State Project are available below the fold.
After worrying about losing an electoral vote in Maine, let’s make the Republicans worry about losing one in Nebraska.
Anzalone is a good pollster. I’m starting to feel good about this district, on both fronts.
Well, that explains the Obama-Terry voter ad.
This also reflects well on the Nate Silver 538 model.
For Jim Esch as well as himself. It could be the difference maker.
this means we are probably picking up 45 seats.
Are you serious? If they’re underestimating the Black vote by that much, the Republicans are in big trouble in this CD. What do past turnout rates look like for this district?
an extra electoral college vote from NE-02???
I just SO hope that happens. That would be very cool