Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/14-15, likely voters, 5/5-7 in parens):
Rick Noriega (D): 44 (44)
John Cornyn (R-inc): 50 (48)
Yvonne Adams (L): 2 (n/a)
(MoE: ±4%)
The Texas Senate race just keeps hanging around the cusp of viability, with Rick Noriega staying in striking distance of Big John Cornyn. This race started to slip away from Noriega over the summer, but this result is in line with the most recent Rasmussen poll (50-43 two weeks ago) showing a somewhat tighter race. (In the same sample, McCain leads Obama in Texas by a rather encouraging 52-40.)
As Markos points out in his write-up of this poll, the big obstacle in making a big end-of-the-game push in this race is the astronomical cost of playing in Texas. The cost of blanketing Texas is in the same ballpark as blanketing Mississippi, Georgia and Kentucky together, any of which also has the possibility of being Senate Seat #60. Economic realities, unfortunately, may dictate this race taking a back seat to those other three.
that he’s been ahead in the polls as long as he has this year. He’s not popular, but he may one of the few who benefit by being a Republican.
Is Noriega up on the airwaves any? I know it’s extremely expensive to saturate the state, but is he hitting any of the big markets (DFW, Houston, San Antonio, Austin, El Paso and McAllen)? Or, if not yet, has the campaign purchased some time for the final two weeks?