Lake Research for Annette Taddeo (10/8-10/21, likely voters, June in parens):
Annette Taddeo (D): 41 (27)
Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-inc): 48 (58)
(MoE: ±4.6%)
That’s some big movement for Taddeo since June, and the gain is across the board for Democrats — Obama has pulled ahead of McCain by 47-45 here, after trailing McCain by 10 points in June. These results come after a Carlos McDonald poll from late September showed Ros-Lehtinen ahead by 48-35 — a wide margin, but also not a particularly strong top line for a longtime incumbent.
Taddeo has made a lot of progress, increasing her name recognition from 14% to 63%. With Democrats experiencing a remarkable voter registration surge in this district (cutting a 23,202 GOP registration advantage in 2006 down to a deficit of only 1,730 voters this year), Ros-Lehtinen could end up receiving a November surprise.
The full polling memo is available below the fold.
UPDATE: Barack Obama weighs in on this race:
Speaking at his “jobs summit” in Palm Beach Community College, Barack Obama dropped Congressional hopeful Annette Taddeo’s name.
He told the crowd she is a “future member of Congress — as long as you guys turn out to vote!”
Go Taddeo!
I so want to see her win! I guess we still have some ground to make up, but it may actually be doable in two weeks.
definitely sound right. He should win this district, so I don’t buy any poll that said he was down 10. Hopefully Taddeo can pull off the Shea-Porter-style victory.
I bet Ros-Lehtinen bringing in the Bush brothers to fundraise had a lot to do with the movement in this race.
has been documented lately as really pushing downballot races hard… we have this shout-out at a rally, and the emails they’ve been sending out to people urging them to vote for the democrat running for congress in their district
since this is happening in the wake of obama’s “don’t get cocky” comment, i do wonder if this sudden focus is not just an attempt to get obama as many democrats as possible (my congresswoman, for instance, i don’t think even has a republican challenger), but also a clever way of aiding their GOTV operation. if anybody out there is seriously considering staying at home because the media says obama is sure to win, well, they’re giving them an extra reason to actually show up at the polls.
but I think it’s a late breaker we can win.