Survey USA (10/20-21, likely voters, 9/7-9 in parens):
Darcy Burner (D): 50 (44)
Dave Reichert (R-inc): 46 (54)
(MoE: ±4%)
This race has spent most of this cycle at the top of the races-to-watch list for the blogosphere, after Darcy Burner captivated the netroots in 2006 en route to losing to one-term incumbent Dave Reichert in this D+2 district by a few points, and then continued running for 2008 without missing a beat. However, a lot of blogospherians (including us at SSP) started worrying a bit in the immediate wake of the financial crisis, when other netroots-backe rematch candidates in swing districts (Larry Kissell, Eric Massa, Dan Seals) suddenly started to climb into the lead but Darcy Burner continued to languish (trailing not just in a Research 2000 poll but a Democratic internal as well).
However, two subsequent internal polls showed Burner with a lead, and then Burner posted titanic fundraising numbers for the third quarter; the one thing she didn’t have in her arsenal was a public poll having shown her ahead. Well, finally, we’ve got one; she’s up 4 in the latest KING5-sponsored SurveyUSA poll, a sharp reversal of fortune from her 10-point deficit last time, taken during the afterglow of the GOP convention. With that in mind, Swing State Project is returning this race to “Tossup” status.
It’s unclear whether this race was moving at the same speed as the other similarly-situated races and R2K just happened to miss that, or if this race truly did take longer to surge because, as I’ve speculated before, the tech-heavy WA-08 is better insulated from the financial crisis (up to the point where people open their 401(k) statements). Either way, though, we’re starting to look pretty good in this race. (And if the NRCC’s decision to dump $454,000 into this race, the largest component of their multi-million dollar ad buy today, is any indication, the GOP knows it too.)
One other developing happening in this race: there’s a kerfuffle, helped along by the Seattle Times (the more conservative of Seattle’s two papers), over Burner’s degree from Harvard. Nobody’s disputing that she graduated, just parsing whether or not she double-majored in computer science and economics. (Short answer, apparently they don’t even have ‘majors’ at Harvard.) I suspect this will have the same effect as the Reichert-cheating-at-media-buying scandal that came a few days before: it’ll rile up the partisans but whoosh right past the few remaining undecideds.
I would think…
Yes! That’s true! At Harvard, they call them “concentrations.” Libruhl elites who pick up a copy of The Crimson while passing through Cambridge on their way to Martha’s Vineyard will find it filled with nonsense phrases like “Junior Philosophy Concentrator Phineas McStandish III was elected president of the Hasty Pudding on Tuesday….” etc. etc.
20% say they’ve already voted and Burner leads by 19% among them!
and take a look and the no info voters. Pro-choice, liberal Democrats. I would bet they break for Burner.
I’m feeling good about this race again.
J/W why he fits in with Kissell and Massa. Kissell and Massa have both been leading lately. (I think Massa was 5 for 5, and Kissell is something like 3 of 4 – the last one being a Hayes internal showing it tied)
in the SUSA poll then the R2000 poll and previous SUSA poll that had and partisan advantage of R+1. This poll is D+9. There is a 16 point swing primarily on that. On first thought, this poll seems bad. But now look at those who’ve already voted: She’s up 18 among those 20%.
How much do you want to bet that SUSA was forced to revisit they’re LV model because they threw out voter that didn’t fit in there but have already voted?
I’ve been skeptical of this race but this SUSA poll is money. Great numbers for Burner. I feel the need to apologize to her supporters for being so negative about her campaign but it looks as though she’s going to pull it off. A big tip of the hat to her and everybody who’s kept this race going. Great work.
i was gobsmacked the oterh day when i saw that rothenburg – generally conservative (in small c sense) to a fault in his rankings is predicitng a 25-30 SEAT GAIN for us in 2008! that is stunning. and darcy is one of the few congress candidates i’ve given to this cycle so go DB!
on another topic (if you’ll forgive me). i’m taking election day off to help the Obama/Franken/? campaigns and the ? is either going East to help the Tinklenburg campaign or going West to help the Madia campaign. i’m kind of following the money, but that keeps changing. in 2 weeks the rcc pulled their money from the 3rd and put it in the 6th then pulled it from the 6th to put it back in the 3rd. bachmann of course is down there with sali, cubin, and schmidt as one of the worst congressmembers in the country, but ont he other hand if paulsen wins he could hold the seat for next 20 years. so my question is: where do YOU think I should go?
This is great! I didn’t really think she was going to win until just recently.
of Seattle’s two papers is like calling Dick Cheney “more conservative” than Al Gore. Other than at the presidential level, they endorse every Republican with a pulse.