Benenson Strategy Group for DCCC (10/21-22, likely voters):
Alan Grayson (D): 52
Ric Keller (R-inc): 41
(MoE: ±4.9%)
Has the recent repudiation of the Republican Party been swifter and harsher anywhere than Florida’s I-4 Corridor? Judging by this poll, on top of the recent unanswered internal poll showing Tom Feeney in neighboring FL-24 down 23 points, it doesn’t seem like it.
We had a sense of this coming, when Keller barely won his primary against a flawed opponent and then Keller trailed by 4 in a Grayson internal, coupled with huge shifts in registration and demographics in the district. It still feels a little surprising to see it happening, though. (It’s happening at the presidential level, too: Obama leads McCain in this R+3 district 51-41, compared with a 55-45 Bush win in 2004.)
Lose Mahoney, Gain Kosmos and Grayson, and maybe some Cubans to boot.
Give Obama 27 electoral votes to top it off and sounds like a good deal to me.
That’s a 20-point swing in Obama’s direction since 2004. Much less than what’s happening statewide.
Could be true though. I was skeptical about the FL-24 internal as well until Feeney’s camp decided not to try and refute it. We should win both of these districts easily. The races we need to focus on now are FL-21 and 25 which appear to be close.
Keller just responded with his own numbers. I don’t think Grayson is up 11, but I think he’s ahead right now and on his way to ousting Cheeseburger Ric.
A Public Opinion Strategies (R) poll; conducted 10/20-21 for Keller; surveyed 400 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 10/24). Tested: Keller and Grayson.
General Election Matchup
R. Keller 47%
A. Grayson 43
Those are the ones we need now.