GA-Sen: Two More Polls Show Chambliss With Slim Lead

InsiderAdvantage (10/23, likely voters):

Jim Martin (D): 42 (45)

Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 44 (45)

Allen Buckley (L): 2 (2)

(MoE: ±3.8%)

Towery:

The Senate race appears in my judgment either headed for a runoff or a Martin win, and here’s why I say that: over 15 percent of blacks say they still are undecided. The largest undecided segment among party affiliations are Democrats, who mirror that black percentage – 14.5 percent – and independents at 18 percent, who are leaning toward Martin by a margin of 45-33 percent. Generally speaking, at this point in a race, unless something were to turn it around, we would treat the undecideds two ways: we would either lop it off and redistribute it, or we would assign it based on the relative positions of the candidates as they stand today. Under either of those scenarios, Chambliss and Martin would be in a runoff.

Strategic Vision (R) (10/20-22, likely voters, 10/5-7 in parens):

Jim Martin (D): 44 (44)

Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 46 (47)

Allen Buckley (L): 5 (4)

(MoE: ±3%)

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution has some more chatter about runoff implications here. We should have a good idea of the DSCC’s endgame here by Monday or Tuesday — when final spending decisions are made by the major committees.