MO-09: Baker Trails By 5

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/20-22, likely voters, 9/17-18 in parens):

Judy Baker (D): 42 (40)

Blaine Luetkemeyer (R): 47 (49)

Other: 8 (6)

Undecided: 3 (5)

(MoE: ±5%)

The open seat race in Missouri’s rural R+7 (but historically Democratic) Ninth District is one of those races that probably would have gotten written off most years, but between the size of the Democratic wave this year, a money influx, and good candidate recruitment, we’re in a credible position to pull off the upset here. Internal polls have, in fact, shown Judy Baker up by as much as 4.

Research 2000 finds that Baker is down 5, but the trendlines have improved nicely from last month. The battle here seems mostly over the independents (who make up 30% of the sample); Luetkemeyer leads 44-42 among them. At the presidential level, McCain leads Obama 54-40, a much better showing than 2004 when Bush won 59-41.

21 thoughts on “MO-09: Baker Trails By 5”

  1. Is this for real? I guess so. Judy Baker’s making progress… FAST! Oh yes, and it’s nice to see Obama gaining ground here. If this holds up, he may be able to win The Show-Me State. 😀

  3. Up until the past month or two I was sure MO-06 was our best bet for a pickup in Missouri.  But Barnes just hasn’t caught on.  I think we have slightly less than a 50/50 shot at MO-09.

  4. Here are the remaining polls Kos is supposedly going to release for the remainder of this weekend.

    Presidential polls: Arkansas, Tennessee

    House polls: AZ-03, CA-04, FL-13, FL-18, FL-21, FL-25, IA-04, MD-01, NV-03, NC-10, SC-01, SC-02, TX-10.

    My Guesses where we stand in the congressional polls:

    AZ-03 – Down 3

    CA-04 – Up 4

    FL-13 – Down 12

    FL-18 – Down 11

    FL-21 – Up 5

    FL-25 – Up 2

    IA-04 – Down 7

    MD-01 – Up 3

    NV-03 – Up 8

    NC-10 – Down 10

    SC-01 – Down 13

    SC-02 – Down 12

    TX-10 – Down 7

    Just my guesses, we’ll soon see what the real numbers are.  

  5. Clinton carried it twice in the 1990’s, but it has moved right since 2000.  Claire McCaskill lost here 52%-44% in 2006, about five points more Republican than the state as a whole.  This would translate into about a 49%-45% lead statewide for McCain this year.  

    The key to Baker winning would be for her to carry her home county of Boone(which is the one Democratic leaning county in the district) by about 20 points and improve upon McCaskill’s vote in the smaller counties.

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