IL-SEN 2010: Who will replace Obama?

There doing this same thread at Daily Kos and I disagree with some of brownsox’a analysis but its a good start.

One of the things you have to keep in mind, is that unless he appoints himself he’s probably facing a stiff primary opponent. I know a little bit about Illinois politics, so here’s some of the names who will be tossed around:

1. Blagojevich: I don’t think its out of the realm of possibility that Blago appoints himself. Having said that, it would be incredibly stupid on his part to do so. He’s not particularly popular in Illinois and this move would make him look pretty bad.

Odds: 50-1

2. Lisa Madigan: This is almost as bad as him appointing himself. This would look like a purely political move, a complete quid pro quo. The worst part is that while Madigan would be his toughest primary opponent both Dan Hymes and Alexi Giannoulas could still knock him off. (This same logic applies to choosing Himes and Giannoulas as well)

Odds: 35-1

3. Jan Schakowsky: This move would please a lot of prgoressives and be heralded around these parts. But, she’s got some baggage due to her husband and there’s another factor that I’ll lay out later as to why I don’t think she’ll be the choice.

Odds: 20-1

4. Jesse White: This is the move that on paper looks perfect. Historic African-American leader who is universally respected by Republicans and Democrats in Illinois, alike. The problem with this pick is that White is 74 years old and would be 76 on election day 2010. Meaning, he probably doesn’t run for re-election and an open Senate seat in Illinois could get very crowded and very ugly.

Odds: 15-1

5. Jesse Jackson Jr.-This is who I think it will be. My main disagreement with brownsox’s analysis is that he didn’t include the role race will play in this decision. Their is only 1 African-American senator right now and if he wins the presidency and is replaced by a white person, Blago could alienate a large slice of the Democratic electorate. This issue would be compounded by the fact that, other than Erik Fleming against Thad Cochoran, there are no African-Americans running for US Senate this cycle. That means the 09-10 Congress will ahve no African-American represenation. If you don’t think Blago’s primary opponent will use that to his advantage, your out of your mind. The one concern about Jesse Jackson Jr. is his dad and the view that this could make him unelectable statewide, but he’s not his dad.

By what margin will Bob Shamansky win?

View Results

Loading ... Loading ...

30 thoughts on “IL-SEN 2010: Who will replace Obama?”

  1. I really don’t know much about the guy.  He sounds like a solid progressive.  Please tell me he’s not the race-baiter his dad is.  Otherwise he’ll have a very tough re-election race to the Senate.

  3. she’s too liberal, got too much baggage, and too old to really get in there for 3 or 4 terms and build seniority for the state.

    my money is on Madigan — it gets rid of his most threatening primary challenger, adds a woman to the Senate (which will help with female voters), and perhaps gets him the support of Lisa’s father for the primary.

  5. i prefer none of those names mention.

    no chance in heck that blago names madigan to the seat. although there is an excellent chance she is the next U.S. Attorney.

    I would think it could be White just so that he could step down in two years and we would have a completely open primary.

  6. Go with Tammy Duckworth.  She has a great personal story, a history of competitiveness in unfriendly partisan turf, and is thus far unstained by Illinois politics.

  9. Remember the pressure that’s going to be on Blagojevich to appoint an African-American, considering that, should Obama resign to take the Presidency, there would be no blacks in the Senate.

    I’m assuming Madigan isn’t black, so I’m guessing Jackson.

  10. Am I the only one here a little worried at the thought of Jesse Jackson’s son running for re-election after being appointed to the Senate?  I’m as liberal as it gets and I cannot stand Jackson Sr.  Granted, I’m sure his son is a decent guy and sounds like a solid progressive, but I fear in a neutral or unfavorable democratic year Jackson Jr. would lose to a moderate republican just on the basis of his last name.

  11. Your facts are wrong.  You incorrectly added 10 years to Jesse White’s age; however, according to published reports, he is not interested in this appointment.

Comments are closed.