Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/20-22, likely voters,9/23-25 in parentheses):
Charlie Brown (D): 48 (46)
Tom McClintock (R): 42 (41)
(MoE: ±5%)
Good grief! That blockhead Tom McClintock was supposed to be a formidable opponent for Charlie Brown in the open seat race in CA-04, to replace Abramoff-tainted retiree John Doolittle… so what happened? ‘Conservative icon’ McClintock has not only trailed by substantial margins in both public polls of this race (both from R2K), but now he’s out of cash and has stopped TV advertising. Despite the fact that this Sacramento suburbs-based district is a dark red R+11, Brown may actually succeed in kicking McClintock’s football.
Part of the problem seems to be that everyone has already heard of McClintock, and nobody seems to like him: his favorable/unfavorable rating in this sample is 44/42 (compared with Brown’s 49/29). In addition, the big blue wave seems to be sweeping in at all levels of this district: McCain leads Obama only 50-40 (compared with a 61-37 Bush edge in 2004). Perhaps most encouragingly, Brown leads early voters by a yawning gulf: 56-38.
this is great news… Maybe he’ll become one of those politicians that finally die… Just like Cruz Bustamonte… Time for you to get another job.
….than John Doolittle did in 2006 fresh off being fingered as one of the Abramoff Four. Seriously though, I suspect McClintock’s rather shameless carpetbagging is what’s behind his high negatives here. Had a local Republican, and I suspect there are no limit of them in this crimson red district, threw his/her hat in the race, I suspect Brown would be the one six points behind.
That makes this a tossup. I’ve had it as Leans R because of all the undecideds here. But McClintock is running on empty (financially) and Brown has the money to close 2% and break 50%. Brown has always led too, surprisingly enough. Anyone know what the polls looked like in 2006 against Doolittle?