Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/20-22, likely voters):
Becky Greenwald (D): 42
Tom Latham (R-inc): 47
(MoE: ±5%)
We’re still sweeping up from the avalanche of Research 2000 polls that Daily Kos released this weekend, but although this one has been out since Saturday, I’d hate to see it slip through the cracks. IA-04, one of our true longshot races languishing down in ‘Likely R’ and not getting any DCCC love beyond R2B status, looks to be a truly competitive race.
This seems to be one of those happy confluences of a motivated challenger, a coasting incumbent, a Democratic wave year, and a swingy district (D+0). In fact, the presidential results seem odd, pointing to a possible sample problem (unless there’s a lot of ticket-splitting going on) that might suggest an even better IA-04 result: McCain leads Obama 46-42 in this district. But in a D+0 district, Obama should be breaking at least 50, based on his national numbers, and probably more, since he’s overperforming in Iowa in relation to Gore and Kerry numbers.
This is shaping up to be one of the best shots that we have where the DCCC isn’t getting involved with independent expenditures (yet), and it’s a dirt cheap district. Time to strike while the iron’s hot! (Discussion is already underway in desmoinesdem‘s diary from Saturday.)
They were late to endorse Becky Greenwald and haven’t made any independent expenditures on her behalf that I’m aware of.
I have no idea why this is–perhaps some of the EMILY’s list staff are mad at Iowans after Hillary lost the caucuses? I know EMILY’s list was very involved in GOTV for the Clinton campaign.
The United Auto Workers’ PAC has a radio ad up talking about how Tom Latham voted for tax breaks for companies that ship jobs overseas, voted against equal pay, and a couple of other things (I can’t remember and I don’t have the script). It says toward the end that we need Becky Greenwald representing us in Congress.
I have heard this ad several times in the past few days on a radio station that has a heavy female listener profile.
this looks like a very winnable race. Obama will win the district by a good margin. It’s dirt cheap to run ads in. The DCCC should really get involved in this district.