GA-Sen: On Track for a Runoff

Insider Advantage (10/27, likely voters, 10/23 in parens):

Jim Martin (D): 44 (42)

Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 46 (44)

Other: 2 (2)

(MoE: ±3.8%)

Say what you will about this race, it’s consistent. While nobody has shown an actual lead for Jim Martin, almost every poll in the last few weeks has shown him 2 points back, or thereabouts.

With such a close race, and with Libertarian Allen Buckley consistently gobbling up a few points, it’s starting to look likelier and likelier that Chambliss will fall slightly shy of the 50% mark. With Lunsford a few points short and Musgrove starting to dwindle, it’s looking like the question of whether or not we break 60 seats may well turn on a December runoff election in Georgia.

36 thoughts on “GA-Sen: On Track for a Runoff”

  1. and assuming that we win VA, NM, CO, NH, OR, AK, NC, and MN, we will have our 60 seats.  What will the Democrats do in regards to Joe Lieberman?  I’m not a fan of Lieberman, but do we keep him in the caucus or do we kick him out and allow the GOP to take our 60th seat?

    Politics make strange bedfellows.  I will say this, having Musgrove lose doesn’t bother me all that much.  He’s very conservative, about the only type of Democrat that can win Mississippi in a statewide election.  I could see Musgrove being a major thorn within the Democratic Caucus.

  2. If this is the seat that would put us at 60, we would face a VERY hard time to win, as the GOP would put that right in front of the Georgia voters.  Given an Obama win, they would likely vote for divided government.  

    The biggest issue is Obama himself.  If he goes all in to get Jim Martin the W, then Martin has his best shot.  We will need Obama engaged.  The problem is that he might be nervous getting too involved, because if he does and Martin still loses, Obama’s caches takes a hit before he even takes office.  I hope he doesn’t feel that way, but I guarantee you his people will be thinking about it.  

  3. All those Libertarian voters will probably fall back to Chambliss. But, assuming Martin can somehow appeal to that vote and President-elect Obama comes down to Georgia for one last campaign stop (that’ll be outrageous, wonder if McCain will come stump for Saxby), Martin may have a slim chance.

  4. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if each side spends 10 million just during the runoff period. Biz groups will do everything beacuse that will be the 60th vote for EFCA and they could probably pick one one Dem or Specter. And Obama and the Dems will go all out for the same reasons, we want 60 votes.

  5. “Who do you think can better get things done for Georgia?”

    Saxby Chambliss doesn’t have much seniority and will be in a very weak minority caucus in which his party is also in a very weak position in the House and out of power in the White House.  Replacing Chambliss with Martin gives Georgians a voice within the party that’s in power.  

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