Mike Rogers (MI) – He’s in the middle of the Knollenberg and Walberg battlefield. The Dem nominee is not the strongest, yet Michigan is struggling. I see Rogers falling. The major newspaper even called him in lock stop with Bush.
Roscoe Bartlett (MD) – This is a race shaping up to be an upset. Bartlett continues to publicly support less regulation and recently told a group of seniors that he lived through the Great Depression and it wasn’t that bad.
Tom Latham (IA) – This is a Dem district with lots of college students. The only real Republican areas of the district are west of Des Moines. An inexpensive ad in Mason City would be a worthwhile investment.
Mike Castle (DE) – This is a strong Democratic state. Run ads on cable.
Open Seat (FL-15) – The Republican nominee is simply horrible. Posey continues to support social security privitization and is against universal health care. The Orlando Sentinel didn’t endorse him and he ended up complaining.
Judy Biggert (IL) – I think Democrats have a shot here.
Scott Garrett (NJ) – Get some mailings out attacking this piece of trash.
Patrick McHenry (NC) – Another piece of trash running against a Democrat with good credentials, including that of prosecutor and veteran.
Charles Dent (PA) – This is a strong labor union district. Dent barely survived in 2006.
Michael McCaul (TX) – Doherty has been picking up and narrowing the gap here. McCaul may indeed be gone.
John Culberson (TX) – High turnout in Harris County should help Democrats, therefore targeting Culberson is worth it.
that the DCCC continues to ignore the IA-04 race. Des Moines and Mason City tv are just not that expensive. $100,000 would go far here.
If Becky Greenwald falls short, I would recommend that the DCCC tell their phone-bankers not waste their time calling any number with a 515 or 641 area code. A whole lot of people are vowing never to give them another dollar.
Plus the Texas ones are the only ones with real sohts. We have loner shots in Dent’s district, McHenry’s district and Biggert’s district. The other district are not going to happen.
He’s had health problems and is likely to retire soon anyways. It’ll be a likely pickup in that case. He has not had any weakness in polling. What’s the point in it at all? He’s popular and until he quits, we have to deal with it. That means we either mount a full fledged challenge or leave him alone. Unfortunately this cycle we are doing the latter.
Here’s my review of the race and the reason why I say Castle could be in trouble:
Under normal circumstances Castle would be considered relatively safe, yet several factors work against Castle. First, the Obama-Biden-Markell factor is most noticeable. If a straight party voting pattern develops, then Castle pays the consequences. Second, the state is 46% registered Democrat and also includes a large African-American population, predominantly in New Castle County. Castle must win over 60% of the vote in the two counties evenly split amongst both parties: Kent and Sussex. If Castle falls behind in either county, then an anti-Castle vote will most definately be coming from New Castle County. A third factor affecting Castle is age, health, and length of service. If the election is about change, then Castle could be doomed. He also knows very well how the age factor worked against Senator Roth years ago. The final factor having an impact on Castle is the economy. Delaware is strongly dependent on the financial service industry. A downturn in the industry has definately had ramifications on Wilmington and Newark. A recent disclosure by Chrysler that it will lay off 1,000 workers in its Newark plant by the end of the year could not have come at a worst time (two weeks before the election).
you could put over 3 million into Michigan 8 Florida 15 and Delaware and you stil lwon’t come close. alexander, Blythe and Hartley-Nagle don’t stand a chance.
I agree 110% with the rest of your picks and there are several more beyond them.
It is absolutely untrue to say that Bob Alexander doesn’t stand a chance in MI-08! In the past couple of weeks Alexander has received support and a check from Russ Feingold’s “Progressive Patriots,” and the endorsement of “The Lansing State Journal.” Two polls, one conducted by local (and usually successful) political prognosticator Mark Grebner have Rogers and Alexander in a dead heat. Rogers is clearly running scared, and the MI GOP have sent out a negative mailer targeting Bob and conducted a negative push poll. Alexander can win, is winning, and would benefit tremendously from DCCC financial support to make media buys during this last week.
an amazing asset to the Democratic Congress. The man is a wind energy exec with a warchest of friends and money.
And he’s only down 5 pts in a HUGELY Republican district!