SurveyUSA for Roll Call (10/27-28, likely voters, 10/15-16 in parens):
David Boswell (D): 43 (42)
Brett Guthrie (R): 53 (51)
Undecided: 4 (7)
(MoE: ±4%)
My friends, this does not look good. National money has been pouring into the district at a furious clip in recent weeks, and it doesn’t seem to have done Boswell much good (remember, back when this race was not engaged, Boswell lead by 3 points in late June). A recent DCCC poll may say otherwise, but it’s getting hard to ignore this string of consistently disappointing SurveyUSA polls.
Bonus finding: McCain leads Obama by 62-35 in this district. More details on the poll’s internals are available here (pdf).
that’s really a disappointment. Any idea on how accurate Bensenson has been in the past? It seems to be the polling firm that gives the most Dem-friendly results across the board, so that seems to be a bad sign. I generally just trust the Anzalone Liszt polls for internals.
was back when both candidates were relying on their residual name recognition, and Boswell, as the longtime State Senator but also former Statewide Agriculture Commissioneer, had a ton. This is not a district where the Dtrip tag on mail/tv is going to help as we saw the first salvo backfire. We tried here as we should have, with a good candidate who ran for a long time a lackluster and poorly funded race, this one wasnt in the cards this cycle ti appears.
trying to take out Ron Lewis and Geoff Davis, and came up real short in both despite high-profile moderate (actually, conservative) candidates. Instead, it was in KY-03 where the liberal newspaper editor took out the popular incumbent. Even if we had won either or both of the blood-red districts, it would have been a struggle to re-elect them, and even harder to keep once they retired. With KY-03, the odds are pretty good we keep it for a real long time. The DCCC ought to spend more money in less hostile districts for candidates that will actually vote our way more than half the time. There is a raft of R+5 or less districts across the midwest that we’re barely even playing in, and where we could actually elect mostly progressive representatives that would be safe down the line.
It’s an extremely difficult district for any Democrat in any case (even – for conservative Democrat) and, in addition, Obama have little or no coattails in Kentucky. So about 45% is a “natural ceiling” for almost any Democrat here. Guthrie is solid conservative, but it’s not a minus here, and he is not a Bill Sali-type idiot….
saw the ads for this race, for the first time, and felt like Guthrie’s were much more effective than Boswell’s very weak ads. That might explain why Boswell is losing support.