SurveyUSA (10/27-28, likely voters, 10/13-14 in parens):
Kay Barnes (D): 36 (40)
Sam Graves (R-inc): 54 (51)
Dave Browning (L): 5 (4)
(MoE: ±4%)
Kay Barnes, the former mayor of Kansas City, was one of the first top-tier recruits by the DCCC in 2007, so this is a genuinely painful polling result to see. I’ve heard whispers in recent days about internal polling also saying that this race has slipped away, and indeed, the DCCC hasn’t made any significant expenditures here in nearly two weeks (although the NRCC is continuing to pour it on, so at least Barnes is doing other candidates a favor by drawing some enemy fire).
Tough breaks — but perhaps this should serve as a reminder for next Tuesday that we can’t win ’em all.
I think this and KY-02 are going to be two that don’t break our way. It’s odd beacuse they should have been a better opportunity then MO-09 which I think Baker will win.
I’m also not feeling good about FL-21. It’s one of the only districts the DCCC is getting outspent in terms of IE’s and in terms of candidate spending our guy is getting outspent more then 2-1 and has a big cap in CoH.
….is that most of MO-06 lies outside of metropolitan Kansas City, and her association with “the big city” is not necessarily a feather in her cap to the people of Grant City and Chillicothe.