Just as we did in 2006, the Swing State Project is having a downballot election prediction contest. We’ve handpicked fourteen hot House and Senate races (and one gubernatorial race) from all across the country for you to think hard about and submit your best guesses.
The rules are simple: Only one entry per person will be accepted (so if you post multiple revisions, we’re only going to look at your last post), submitted as a comment in this thread (e-mail submissions will be junked). Submissions will be accepted until midnight Eastern on Monday, November 3rd.
What we’re interested in is the final margin between the Democratic and Republican candidates (except for the tiebreaker), and the goal is to have the lowest score possible. So if you think that Debbie Cook will beat Dana Rohrabacher by a score of 55-45, what we care about is that you think it’s going to be D+10. If she wins 53-47, that’s D+6, so you get four “error points” added to your score. (Remember, fewer points = better.)
This also means that if Cook wins 50-40 (and third parties take the rest), you’ve still “nailed it” according to our system and get a perfect score of zero for the race. If, on the other hand, you call it D+10 and it winds up being R+10, you’ll get 20 points added to your score.
So let’s cut to the chase! Here are the races that we’ve selected:
WA-Gov: Gregoire (D) v. Rossi (R)
AK-Sen: Stevens (R) v. Begich (D)
MS-Sen-B: Wicker (R) v. Musgrove (D)CA-46: Rohrabacher (R) v. Cook (D)
FL-25: M. Diaz-Balart (R) v. Garcia (D)
LA-01: Scalise (R) v. Harlan (D)
NE-02: Terry (R) v. Esch (D)
NH-01: Shea-Porter (D) v. Bradley (R)
NM-02: Tinsley (R) v. Teague (D)
NY-13: Straniere (R) v. McMahon (D)
OH-02: Schmidt (R) v. Wulsin (D)
PA-11: Kanjorski (D) v. Barletta (R)
TX-22: Lampson (D) v. Olson (R)
WY-AL: Lummis (R) v. Trauner (D)And the tiebreaker:
MN-Sen: Coleman (R) v. Franken (D) v. Barkley (IP)
Ideally, your entries should look something like:
WA-Gov: D+6
AK-Sen: R+8
And so forth. However, for the tiebreaker (MN-SEN), please predict the EXACT FINAL SCORE for each candidate. You are free to predict final scores for the other races as well, but you’ll make our lives a lot easier if you list the expected margin first as shown above.
Once again, the deadline for your submissions is midnight Eastern on Monday — so get your predictions in soon. The top three finishers (ie, those with the lowest overall scores) will be treated to some of SSP’s favorite chocolate babka (as pictured here).
Have at it!
How are you guys going to handle election night? With about a million races going on, do you have a specific plan/format in place to post results and such?
WA-GOV: D+5
AK-SEN: D+7
MS-SENB: R+8
CA-46: R+8
FL-25: D+2
LA-01: R+24
NE-02: D+2
NH-01: D+4
NM-02: D+6
NY-13: D+24
OH-02: R+5
PA-11: D+0.1
TX-22: R+10
WY-AL: R+.1
MN-SEN: D+2
I’m so totally in. Anything for babka.
Can I update my guesses? Like could I guess now and then tweak it on Monday?
WA-Gov: D+3
AK-Sen: D+8
MS-Sen-B: R+2
CA-46: D+1
FL-25: D+3
LA-01: D+5
NE-02: D+1
NH-01: D+5
NM-02: D+4
NY-13: D+10
OH-02: D+2
PA-11: D+1
TX-22: R+5
WY-AL: D+1
MN-Sen: Franken 51, Coleman 40, Barkley 9
WA-Gov: D+5
AK-Sen: D+14
MS-Sen-B: R+4
CA-46: D+2
FL-25: D+5
LA-01: R+24
NE-02: D+4
NH-01: D+8
NM-02: D+6
NY-13: D+18
OH-02: D+1
PA-11: R+4
TX-22: R+7
WY-AL: D+3
MN-Sen: Franken 44, Coleman 42, Barkley 14
WA-Gov: D+5
AK-Sen: D+11
MS-Sen-B: R+7
CA-46: R+11
FL-25: R+3
LA-01: R+15
NE-02: R+5
NH-01: D+6
NM-02: D+4
NY-13: D+16
OH-02: R+4
PA-11: D+2
TX-22: R+6
WY-AL: R+5
MN-Sen: R+4
WA-Gov D+4
AK-Sen D+8
MS-Sen R+5
CA-46 R+4
FL-25 D+2
LA-01 R+10
NE-02 D+2
NH-01 D+8
NM-02 D+4
NY-13 D+30
OH-02 D+2
PA-11 D+2
TX-22 R+4
WY-AL D+2
Franken 42
Coleman 40
Barkley 18
WA-Gov: D+5
AK-Sen: D+6
MS-Sen-B: R+12
CA-46: R+4
FL-25: D+2
LA-01: R+18
NE-02: R+8
NH-01: D+6
NM-02: D+4
NY-13: D+22
OH-02: R+5
PA-11: R+4
TX-22: R+8
WY-AL: R+5
MN-Sen: R-40 D- 42 I- 18
WA-Gov: Gregoire +2
AK-Sen: Begich +6
MS-Sen-B: Wicker +4
CA-46: Rohrabacher +9
FL-25: M. Diaz-Balart +7
LA-01: Scalise +17
NE-02: Terry +6
NH-01: Shea-Porter +1
NM-02: Tinsley +3 (strikes me as the FL-13 of 2008….too good to be true)
NY-13: McMahon +15
OH-02: Schmidt +6
PA-11: Barletta +5
TX-22: Olson +5
WY-AL: Lummis +4
MN-Sen: Coleman 43, Franken 39, Barkley 15
WA-Gov: D+5
AK-Sen: D+11
MS-Sen-B: R+6
CA-46: R+7
FL-25: D+5
LA-01: R+19
NE-02: R+3
NH-01: D+9
NM-02: D+7
NY-13: D+27
OH-02: R+5
PA-11: D+4
TX-22: R+7
WY-AL: D+1
MN-Sen: Franken 44, Coleman 43, Barkley 13
WA-Gov: D+5
AK-Sen: D+8
MS-Sen B: R+6
CA-46: R+9
FL-25: D+2
LA-1: R+16
NE-2: R+2
NH-1: D+5
NM-2: D+3
NY-13: D+16
OH-2: R+5
PA-11: R+4
TX-22: R+7
WY-AL: R+4
MN-Sen: Franken 46, Coleman 44, Barkley 10
I’m not pessimistic in general, these are just tough races.
WA-Gov: D+2
AK-Sen: D+6
MS-Sen-B: R+7
CA-46: R+9
FL-25: R+1
LA-01: R+8
NE-02: D+2
NH-01: D+5
NM-02: D+6
NY-13: D+11
OH-02: R+3
PA-11: R+4
TX-22: R+10
WY-AL: R+1
And the tiebreaker:
MN-Sen: R-47/D-44/I-09
Swing State Project T-Shirt this year.
WA-Gov: D+2
AK-Sen: D+5
MS-Sen: R+4
CA-46: R+10
FL-25: R+2
LA-01: R+18
NE-02: R+2
NH-01: D+4
NM-02: D+6
NY-13: D+22
OH-02: R+2
PA-11: D+1
TX-22: R+4
WY-AL: R+2
MN-Sen: R+3 (with Coleman’s recent movement and Barkley’s decline).
Very tough races, some standard bearers, but a lot of races that are under the rug, and hard to predict, upset races in other words.
WA-Gov: D+2
AK-Sen: D+8
MS-Sen-B: R 3
CA-46: R+7
FL-25: D+1
LA-01: R+5
NE-02: R+3
NH-01: D+5
NM-02: D+8
NY-13: D+16
OH-02: D+1
PA-11: D+1
TX-22: R+4
WY-AL: D+1
MN-Sen: Franken 43 Coleman 42 Barkley 15
WA-Gov: D+2
AK-Sen: D+5
MS-Sen-B: R+5
CA-46: R+7
FL-25: R+2
LA-01: R+9
NE-02: D+1
NH-01: D+3
NM-02: D+4
NY-13: D+8
OH-02: R+1
PA-11: R+2
TX-22: R+5
WY-AL: D+2
MN-Sen: Coleman(R)49%, Franken(D)44%, Barkley(I)5%
WA-GOV D+5
AK-Sen D+10
MS Sen R+11
CA-46 D+3
FL 25 R+1
LA 1 R+9
NE 2 R+6
NH 1 D+8
NM 2 D+5
NY 13 D+22
OH 2 R+4
PA 11 R+9
TX 22 R+7
WY AL R+1
MN D+2
WA-Gov: D+5
AK-Sen: D+16
MS-Sen (special): D+2.
I think I’m the only one here predicting a Musgrove win, so here’s my reasoning: The latest two polls showing Wicker up considerably both seem weird to me. Especially Ramussen has Obama doing better (!) than Musgrove. My guess is that Musgrove would be able to pull ~25% of the white vote, and win ~90% of African-Americans, to win in a squeaker. The lack of party ID on the ballots will definitely help him in a way the polls haven’t shown, too.
CA-46: D+3
FL-25: R+1
LA-01: R+10
NE-02: D+4
NH-01: D+6
NM-02: D+3
NY-13: D+20
OH-02: D+2
PA-11: R+2
TX-22: R+5
WY-AL: D+1
Tiebreaker:
MN-Sen:
Barkley-16
Franken-45
Coleman-41
WA-Gov: D+2
AK-Sen: D+5
MS-Sen-B: R+3
CA-46: D+.2
FL-25: D+.7
LA-01: R+5
NE-02: R+2
NH-01: D+4
NM-02: D+2
NY-13: D+7
OH-02: R+3
PA-11: D+1
TX-22: D+2
WY-AL: R+1
And the tiebreaker:
MN-Sen: Coleman 43 v. Franken 44 v. Barkley 13
WA-Gov: D+5
AK-Sen: D+9
MS-Sen-B: R+4
CA-46: R+7
FL-25: R+1
LA-01: R+18
NE-02: R+2
NH-01: D+5
NM-02: D+4
NY-13: D+15
OH-02: R+5
PA-11: D+3
TX-22: R+11
WY-AL: D+3
MN-Sen: Franken 46, Coleman 44, Barkley 10
Here they are:
WA-Gov: D+5
AK-Sen: D+8
MS-Sen: R+8
CA-46: D+1
FL-25: D+2
LA-01: R+11
NE-02: R+5
NH-01: D+5
NM-02: D+5
NY-13: D+20
OH-02: R+6
PA-11: D+1
TX-22: R+5
WY-AL: R+3
MN-Sen: D 45, R 44, I 11 = D+1
WA-Gov: D+2
AK-Sen: D+12
MS-Sen – B: R+6
CA-46: R+6
FL-25: D+1
LA-01: R+8
NE-02: R+3
NH-01: D+8
NM-02: D+7
NY-13: D+13
OH-02: R+1
PA-11: D+6
TX-22: R+9
WY-AL: D+.5
And the tiebreaker:
MN-Sen: Coleman (R) 43% v. Franken (D) 45% v. Barkley (IP) 12%
WA-Gov: D+4
AK-Sen: D+7
MS-Sen-B: R+8
CA-46: R+8
FL-25: R+3
LA-01: R+18
NE-02: R+9
NH-01: D+7
NM-02: D+2
NY-13: D+30
OH-02: R+5
PA-11: R+4
TX-22: R+6
WY-AL: R+6
MN-Sen: C 41 F 45 B 14
I’m being fairly conservative here, although I’m also picking most of my numbers out of thin air. Definitely a hail mary effort.
I am enjoying reading the answers.
is something like Predict06.com for 2008. Anybody know if there’s something like that out there again this cycle? (I know Predict06 isn’t re-upping for this election.)
WA Gov – D+5
AK Sen – D+8
MS Sen – R+8
CA-46 – D+3
FL-25 – D+3
LA-01 – D+5
NE-02 – R+5
NH-01 – D+4
NM-02 – D+5
NY-13 – D+4
OH-02 – D+1
PA-11 – D+6
TX-22 – D+2
WY-AL – D+1
MN-Sen – R-37 D-39 I-24
Don McCoy
WA-Gov: D+2
AK-Sen: D+7
MS-Sen-B: D+2
CA-46: R+5
FL-25: D+4
LA-01: R+9
NE-02: D+1
NH-01: R+3
NM-02: D+8
NY-13: D+11
OH-02: R+7
PA-11: D+1
TX-22: D+4
WY-AL: D+0
Tiebreaker: Coleman 44, Franken 48, Barkley 8
WA-Gov: D+4
AK-Sen: D+17
MS-Sen-B: R+5
CA-46: R+3
FL-25: D+3
LA-01: R+9
NE-01: D+1
NH-01: D+7
NM-02: D+3
NY-13: D+26
OH-02: D+3
PA-11: R+2
TX-22: R+8
WY-AL: D+1
MN-Sen: Coleman (R) 42 v. Franken (D) 43 v. Barkley (IP) 15
Just a few slightly educated guesses.
WA-Gov: D+3
AK-Sen: D+8
MS-Sen-B: R+6
CA-46: R+4
FL-25: D+2
LA-01: R+12
NE-02: R+4
NH-01: D+6
NM-02: D+4
NY-13: D+18
OH-02: R+4
PA-11: R+2
TX-22: R+8
WY-AL: R+4
And the tiebreaker:
MN-Sen: Franken-43 v. Coleman-42 v. Barkley-15
I might changing this depending on what we see/hear this weekend.
WA-Gov: D+4
AK-Sen: D+10
MS-Sen-B: R+3
CA-46: R+6
FL-25: D+3
LA-01: R+18
NE-02: R+8
NH-01: D+4
NM-02: R+1
NY-13: D+21
OH-02: R+3
PA-11: R+2
TX-22: R+4
WY-AL: D+1
MN-Sen: Franken 42, Coleman 40Barkley 18
WA-Gov:D+4
AK-Sen:D+10
MSSenB R+5
CA-46: R=2
FL-25: D+2
LA-01: D+2
NE-02: D+4
NH-01: D+6
NM-02: D+5
NY-13: D+12
OH-02: D+1
PA-11: R+2
TX-22: R+10
WY-AL: D+2
And the tiebreaker:
MN-Sen: Coleman (R) 42 v. Franken 44 (D) v. Barkley (IP)14
I’m not good at this but there is one district that I am interested in so I’ll give it a try:
IL-16: D+2?
I think Obama could win this, the last of the moderately Republican north Illinois districts. But- will Don Manzullo’s Dem opponent score an upset victory?
Note: These predictions are what I currently have on my blog. I will have updates tomorrow and next Monday, by 11:59 PM CST, and include races such as CA-46 and NE-02, which weren’t on my radar screen when I updated earlier this week. I will just put a guesstimate for those two, as well as AK-Sen, since I finished my updates just before I heard of Stevens’ conviction. The others (except for LA-01, which I haven’t kept track of at all) are based on formula predictions, and you are welcome to check them out on my blog. http://californianintexas.blog…
WA-Gov: D+5
AK-Sen: D+8
MS-Sen-B: R+1
CA-46: R+8
FL-25: R+4
LA-01: R+20
NE-02: R+10
NH-01: D+5
NM-02: D+2
NY-13: D+10
OH-02: R+7
PA-11: R+2
TX-22: R+2
WY-AL: R+3
MN-Sen: Franken 42, Coleman 40, Barkley 18
Every time I make a prediction, it goes HORRIBLY WRONG.
No better way for us to LOSE all those races listed than for me to make a prediction on any of them.
So I’m gonna keep my mouth shut here. 🙂
WA-Gov: D+4
AK-Sen: D+9
MS-Sen-B: D+.5
CA-46: R+5
FL-25: R+2
LA-01: R+10
NE-02: R+2
NH-01: D+6
NM-02: D+6
NY-13: D+21
OH-02: R+5
PA-11: R+2
TX-22: R+4
WY-AL: R+.5
MN-Sen: R+1 [R: 44 D: 43 I: 13]
WA-Gov: D+4
AK-Sen: D+11
MS-Sen-B: R+8
CA-46: R+8
FL-25: R+6
LA-01: R+30
NE-02: R+4
NH-01: D+6
NM-02: D+6
NY-13: D+16
OH-02: R+8
PA-11: R+6
TX-22: R+18
WY-AL: R+6
MN-Sen: C 45 F 42 B 13
Here’s my prediction:
WA-Gov: Gregoire (D) v. Rossi (R) – 52 – 48 (+4)
AK-Sen: Stevens (R) v. Begich (D) – 42 – 58 (+16)
MS-Sen-B: Wicker (R) v. Musgrove (D) 52 – 48 (-4)
CA-46: Rohrabacher (R) v. Cook (D) – 54 – 46 (-8)
FL-25: M. Diaz-Balart (R) v. Garcia (D) – 49 – 51 (+2)
LA-01: Scalise (R) v. Harlan (D) – 55 – 45 (-10)
NE-02: Terry (R) v. Esch (D) – 49.5 – 50.5 (Down to the Wire / +1)
NH-01: Shea-Porter (D) v. Bradley (R) 55 – 45 (+10)
NM-02: Tinsley (R) v. Teague (D) – 53 – 48 (+5)
NY-13: Straniere (R) v. McMahon (D) – 40 – 6o (+20)
OH-02: Schmidt (R) v. Wulsin (D) – 49 – 51 (+2)
PA-11: Kanjorski (D) v. Barletta (R) – 52 – 48 (-4)
TX-22: Lampson (D) v. Olson (R) – 49 – 51 (-2)
WY-AL: Lummis (R) v. Trauner (D) – 49 – 51 (+2)
And the tiebreaker:
MN-Sen: Coleman (R) v. Franken (D) v. Barkley (IP) – 52 – 48 (+4)
WA-Gov: D+3
AK-Sen: D+14
MS-Sen-B: R+7
CA-46: R+3
FL-25: R+4
LA-01: R+17
NE-02: R+7
NH-01: D+6
NM-02: D+5
NY-13: D+18
OH-02: R+5
PA-11: R+8
TX-22: R+10
WY-AL: R+7
MN-Sen: Franken 43, Coleman 41, Barkley 16
Yeah, I’m persuaded the ’04 Republican voters are still pretty unregenerate. Population turnover is more relentless, however.
[SoupNazi] No babka for You! [/SoupNazi] 🙂
WA-Gov: D+7
AK-Sen: D+8
MS-Sen-B: D+2
CA-46: R+5
FL-25: D+2
LA-01: R+9
NE-02: D+1
NH-01: D+8
NM-02: D+7
NY-13: D+19
OH-02: R+4
PA-11: D+5
TX-22: D+3
WY-AL: R+3
And the tiebreaker:
MN-Sen: Coleman (R): 42 v. Franken (D): 44 v. Barkley (IP): 16
yes, I remain a pretty optimistic guy.
WA-Gov: D+7
AK-Sen: D+12
MS-Sen-B: R+8
CA-46: R+9
FL-25: R+4
LA-01: R+14
NE-02: R+3
NH-01: D+9
NM-02: D+3
NY-13: D+25
OH-02: R+3
PA-11: D+5
TX-22: D+2
WY-AL: D+3
MN-Sen: Franken 46%, Coleman 44%, Barkley 10%
WA-Gov: D+4
AK-Sen: D+9
MS-Sen-B: R+8
CA-46: R+11
FL-25: R+3
LA-01: R+22
NE-02: R+5
NH-01: D+7
NM-02: D+4
NY-13: R+47
OH-02: R+4
PA-11: R+5
TX-22: R+13
WY-AL: R+2
And the tiebreaker:
MN-Sen: Coleman 47, Franken 41, Barkley 9
WA-Gov: D+4
AK-Sen: D+9
MS-Sen-B: R+8
CA-46: R+11
FL-25: R+3
LA-01: R+22
NE-02: R+5
NH-01: D+7
NM-02: D+4
NY-13: D+47 (can’t believe I had Straniere winning this one!)
OH-02: R+4
PA-11: R+5
TX-22: R+13
WY-AL: R+2
And the tiebreaker:
MN-Sen: Coleman 47, Franken 41, Barkley 9
I’ve never eaten babka.
WA-Gov: D+2.5
AK-Sen: D+14
MS-Sen: R+6
CA-46: R+7
FL-25: R+.5
LA-01: R+22
NE-02: R+3
NH-01: D+6
NM-02: D+9
NY-13: D+24
OH-02: R+4
PA-11: D+5
TX-22: D+1
WY-AL: D+2
But there’s a first time for everything.
WA-Gov: Gregoire (D) v. Rossi (R) – D+2
AK-Sen: Stevens (R) v. Begich (D) – D+10
MS-Sen-B: Wicker (R) v. Musgrove (D) – R+4
CA-46: Rohrabacher (R) v. Cook (D) – R+6
FL-25: M. Diaz-Balart (R) v. Garcia (D) – D+4
LA-01: Scalise (R) v. Harlan (D) – D+2
NE-02: Terry (R) v. Esch (D) – D+3
NH-01: Shea-Porter (D) v. Bradley (R) – D+6
NM-02: Tinsley (R) v. Teague (D) – D+4
NY-13: Straniere (R) v. McMahon (D) – D+20
OH-02: Schmidt (R) v. Wulsin (D) – D+2
PA-11: Kanjorski (D) v. Barletta (R) – R+2
TX-22: Lampson (D) v. Olson (R) – D+1
WY-AL: Lummis (R) v. Trauner (D) – D+0
And the tiebreaker:
MN-Sen: Coleman (R) v. Franken (D) v. Barkley (IP)
41-44-15 (R-D-IP)
WA-Gov: D+3
AK-Sen: D+5
MS-Sen: R+2
CA-46: R+4
FL-25: D+2
LA-01: R+12
NE-02: R+1
NH-01: D+8
NM-02: D+5
NY-13: D+17
OH-02: D+1
PA-11: D+2
TX-22: R+3
WY-AL: R+5
Coleman 43 Franken 45 Barkely 12
To stay on top of all the interesting races. And we’re sure that SSP readers will keep alerting us to key developments in comments.
WA-Gov: D+2
AK-Sen: D+6
MS-Sen: R+6
CA-46: R+4
FL-25: D+4
LA-01: R+15
NE-02: R+5
NH-01: D+4
NM-02: D+5
NY-13: D+14
OH-02: R+5
PA-11: R+2
TX-22: R+8
WY-AL: R+2
Coleman 40 Franken 45 Barkely 15
Maybe have a large chart with slots for each contest you guys just keep updating, and you put the percent reporting in parenthesis. I think the best thing is one big thing with every piece of info possible, as opposed to dispersing it out over posts.
Just an idea. Obviously, you guys know exactly what you’re doing with SSP!
I’ve seen how you guys operate during a primary night. I can only imagine how you’ll organize on next Tuesday night, and just how many thousands upon thousands of posts there will be for all the races.
Good luck
WA-Gov: D+6
AK-Sen: D+11
MS-Sen-B: R +6
CA-46: R+11
FL-25: R+1
LA-01: R+22
NE-02: D+1
NH-01: D+4
NM-02: D+9
NY-13: D+26
OH-02: R+2
PA-11: R+7
TX-22: R+11
WY-AL: R+8
And the tiebreaker:
MN-Sen: Coleman 41/ Franken 39 / Barkley 20
So will I be OK if I update at 11:59 PM on Monday? Or is 11:59 PM on Sunday the final moment to change my forecast?
WA-Gov: D+4
AK-Sen: D+4
MS-Sen-B: R+2
CA-46: D+4
FL-25: R+2
LA-01: R+10
NE-02: D+2
NH-01: D+6
NM-02: D+8
NY-13: D+18
OH-02: R+4
PA-11: D+10
TX-22: D+10
WY-AL: D+6
MN-Sen: Franken 47, Coleman 45, Barkley 8
I’ll take a crack at it now and do a final prediction before Monday at midnight.
WA-Gov: D+4
AK-Sen: D+7
MS-Sen-B: R+5
CA-46: R+13
FL-25: R+1
LA-01: R+22
NE-02: R+5
NH-01: D+6
NM-02: D+8
NY-13: D+24
OH-02: R+7
PA-11: R+3
TX-22: R+9
WY-AL: D+2
And the tiebreaker:
MN-Sen: Coleman (R) – 42.2% v. Franken (D) – 43.3% v. Barkley (IP) – 13.3%
Didn’t read the end of the diary.
Coleman 46 Franken 42 Barkley 11
WA-Gov: D+4
AK-Sen: D+8
MS-Sen-B: R+6
CA-46: R+8
FL-25: D+2
LA-01: R+16
NE-02: R+2
NH-01: D+4
NM-02: D+6
NY-13: D+30
OH-02: R+5
PA-11: R+2
TX-22: R+10
WY-AL: D+1
MN-Sen: Coleman: 45, Franken: 43, Barkley: 12
WA-Gov: D +5
AK-Sen: D +3
MS-Sen-B: R +4
CA-46: R +5
FL-25: R +3
LA-01: R +6
NE-02: R +4
NH-01: D +6
NM-02: D +4
NY-13: D +8
OH-02: D +1
PA-11: D +2
TX-22: D +2
WY-AL: D +3
And Franken, with 44% of the vote, beats Coleman (42%) and Barkley (14%)
WA-Gov- D+2
AK-Sen D+12
MS-Sen R+8
CA-46 R+9
FL-25 R+2
LA-1 R+11
NE-2 R+6
NH-1 D+3
NM-2 R+2
NY-13 D+22
OH-2 R+3
PA-11 R+2
TX-22 R+6
WY-AL R+4
MN-Sen Coleman 42, Franken 40, Barkley 18
Franken 44 Coleman 42 Barkley 14
And if possible change CA-46 to R+3… typo.
WA-Gov.: D+5
AK-Sen.: D+8
MS-Sen.: R+7
CA-46: R+9
FL-25: D+1
LA-01: R+15
NE-01: R+4
NH-01: D+5
NM-02: D+4
NY-13: D+18
OH-02: R+6
PA-11: D+2
TX-22: R+8
WY-AL: R+2
MN-Sen.: C 42, F 40, B 13
to enter the Bleeding Heartland election prediction contest:
http://www.bleedingheartland.c…
You don’t have to be from Iowa to participate!
I am going to have to think for a while before submitting my entry for the Swing State Project contest.
WA-Gov: D+4
AK-Sen: D+6
MS-Sen-B: R+8
CA-46: R+4
FL-25: D+4
LA-01: R+10
NE-02: R+2
NH-01: D+4
NM-02: D+4
NY-13: D+20
OH-02: R+10
PA-11: R+3
TX-22: D+1
WY-AL: R+4
MN-Sen: Coleman 44 v. Franken 46 v. Barkley 10
Join Martin W of the Progressive Electorate and Loren Collingwood pollster from U Dub (Washington) who will give final analysis and go state by state and race by race.
http://www.progressiveelectora…
WA-Gov: D+3
AK-Sen: D+12
MS-Sen-B: R+6
CA-46: R+8
FL-25: D+2
LA-01: R+12
NE-02: R+5
NH-01: D+6
NM-02: D+4
NY-13: D+22
OH-02: D+1
PA-11: R+7
TX-22: R+10
WY-AL: R+3
And the tiebreaker:
MN-Sen: Franken-43 v. Coleman-42 v. Barkley-15
I’m working hard for Franken. We Minnesotans have 3 of the closest races in the country – MN Sen, MN3, MN6
And could someone please tell what a chocolate babka is?
WA-Gov: D+5
AK-Sen: D+15
MS-Sen-B: R+8
CA-46: R+9
FL-25: R+2
LA-01: R+12
NE-02: R+3
NH-01: D+8
NM-02: D+4
NY-13: D+22
OH-02: R+5
PA-11: D+1
TX-22: R+14
WY-AL: R+7
And the tiebreaker:
MN-Sen: Coleman 41 v. Franken 43 v. Barkley 16
I have to admit, I’m not as on top of the downballot races this time as I was in ’06, that Presidential race has sucked up a lot of time and attention. But here it goes:
WA Gov: D+3
AK Sen: D+14
MS Sen: R+6
CA-46: R+9
FL-25: D+1
LA-1: R+20
NE-2: D+0
NH-1: D+5
NM-2: D+5
NY-13: D+20
OH-2: R+4
PA-11: R+4
TX-22: R+7
WY-AL: R+4
MN Sen: Franken 43, Coleman 40, Barkley 15
WA-Gov: D+2
AK-Sen: D+9
MS-Sen-B: R+5
CA-46: R+9
FL-25: R+5
LA-01: R+18
NE-02: D+1
NH-01: D+8
NM-02: D+3
NY-13: D+18
OH-02: R+6
PA-11: R+4
TX-22: R+8
WY-AL: R+6
And the tiebreaker:
MN-Sen: Coleman 42, Franken 41, Barkley 17
WA-Gov: D+2
AK-Sen: D+10
MS-Sen-B: R+12
CA-46: R+5
FL-25: R+2
LA-01: R+9
NE-02: R+1
NH-01: D+7
NM-02: D+3
NY-13: D+4
OH-02: R+1
PA-11: D+1
TX-22: R+5
WY-AL: R+9
And the tiebreaker:
MN-Sen: Coleman 46, Franken 45, Barkley 9
WA-Gov: D+4
AK-Sen: D+6
MS-Sen-B: R+4
CA-46: R+2
FL-25: R+0
LA-01: R+15
NE-02: R+3
NH-01: D+0
NM-02: D+4
NY-13: D+12
OH-02: R+2
PA-11: R+4
TX-22: R+6
WY-AL: D+0
And the tiebreaker:
MN-Sen: D-44, R-42, I-14
WA-Gov: D+.5
AK-Sen: D+19
MS-Sen-B: R+13
CA-46: D+3
FL-25: D+1
LA-01: R+4
NE-02: R+2
NH-01: D+6
NM-02: D+7
NY-13: D+23
OH-02: R+5
PA-11: D+4
TX-22: R+3
WY-AL: R+6
MN-Sen: D+1
Tiebreaker:
Coleman 46 … Franken 47 … Barkley 7
WA-Gov: D+3
AK-Sen: D+12
MS-Sen-B: R+9
CA-46: D+2
FL-25: D+1
LA-01: R+11
NE-02: R+2
NH-01: D+6
NM-02: D+4
NY-13: D+16
OH-02: D+1
PA-11: R+4
TX-22: D+2
WY-AL: D+0
MN-Sen: 43 (R), 46 (D), 11 (IP)
WA Gov D+2
AK-Sen D+12
MS Sen R+4
CA-46 R+5
FL-25 D+5
LA-01 R+10
NE-02 D+1
NH-01 D+4
NM-02 D+4
NY-13 D+14
OH-01 D+1
PA-11 D+2
TX-22 D+1
WY-AL R+3
MN Sen Franken 48, Coleman 46, Barkley 6
I’d like to see Debbie Cook win in CA-46, but it seems like a stretch. Ticket-splitting will save Lampson, and our only loss will be Mahoney in FL.
I’ve never had a babka before. FTS.
WA-Gov: D+3
AK-Sen: D+12
MS-Sen: R+7
CA-46: R+10
FL-25: D+1
LA-01: R+14
NE-02: D+1
NH-01: D+5
NM-02: D+6
NY-13: D+22
OH-02: R+6
PA-11: D+4
TX-22: R+4
WY-AL: R+2
MN-Sen: Franken 41, Coleman 39, Barkley 22
WA-Gov: D+3
AK-Sen: D+13
MS-Sen-B: R+6
CA-46: R+2
FL-25: D+3
LA-01: R+12
NE-02: D+2
NH-01: D+4
NM-02: D+3
NY-13: D+19
OH-02: R+3
PA-11: R+1
TX-22: R+3
WY-AL: D+2
MN-Sen: Franken 42, Coleman 40, Barkley 18
I have a feeling I’ll be coming back to change something…
WA-GOV D+3
AK-SEN D+12
MS-SEN R+6
CA-46 R+7
FL-25 D+0
LA-01 R+12
NE-02 R+2
NH-01 D+6
NM-02 D+6
NY-13 D+25
OH-02 R+3
PA-11 R+5
TX-22 R+7
WY-AL R+2
Coleman 42 Franken 45 Barkley 13
WA-Gov: Gregoire +4
AK-Sen: Begich +10
MS-Sen-B: Wicker +10
CA-46: Cook +2
FL-25: Garcia +2
LA-01: Scalise +7
NE-02: Esch +2
NH-01: Shea-Porter +5
NM-02: Teague +5
NY-13: McMahon +10
OH-02: Wulsin +1
PA-11: Barletta +5
TX-22: Olson +8
WY-AL: Trauner +2
And the tiebreaker:
MN-Sen: Coleman 38 v. Franken 39 v. Barkley 23
WA-Gov: D+3
AK-Sen: D+8
MS-Sen-B: R+6
CA-46: R+5
FL-25: D+2
LA-01: R+32
NE-02: R+3
NH-01: D+6
NM-02: D+5
NY-13: D+16
OH-02: R+4
PA-11: R+6
TX-22: R+15
WY-AL: R+4
MN-Sen: Franken 44, Coleman 41, Barkley 15
These may be a bit optimistic, but here goes:
WA-Gov: D+8
AK-Sen: D+16
MS-Sen-B: R+6
CA-46: R+4
FL-25: D+2
LA-01: R+20
NE-02: D+0
NH-01: D+8
NM-02: D+8
NY-13: D+14
OH-02: R+6
PA-11: D+8
TX-22: D+0
WY-AL: R+6
Minnesota Senate:
45 Franken
43 Coleman
12 Barkley
WA-Gov: D+0
AK-Sen: D+16
MS-Sen-B: R+2
CA-46: R+7
FL-25: R+1
LA-01: R+7
NE-02: R+2
NH-01: D+3
NM-02: D+4
NY-13: D+15
OH-02: D+0
PA-11: R+1
TX-22: R+5
WY-AL: D+1
And the tiebreaker:
MN-Sen: Coleman (R) 40
Franken (D) 45
Barkley (IP) 15
And, just for the hell of it…I am going to resist the temptation to change them amid a flood of polling tomorrow…
WA-GOV: D+2
AK-SEN: D+19
MS-SEN B: R+8
CA-46: R+12
FL-25: R+0
LA-01: R+12
NE-02: R+4
NH-01: D+5
NM-02: D+2
NY-13: D+23
OH-02: R+6
PA-11: R+6
TX-22: R+16
WY-AL: R+4
MN-SEN TIEBREAK: Franken 44, Coleman 41, Barkley 15
Normally, I don’t help out people standing in between me and chocolate, but….
your tiebreak adds up to 102%.
WA-Gov: D+5
AK-Sen: D+15
MS-Sen-B: R+6
CA-46: R+6
FL-25: D+3
LA-01: R+13
NE-02: D+2
NH-01: D+8
NM-02: D+3
NY-13: D+24
OH-02: R+4
PA-11: D+4
TX-22: R+8
WY-AL: R+5
Tiebreaker
MN-Sen: D+3
WA-Gov: D+4
AK-Sen: D+6
MS-Sen: R+9
CA-46: R+11
FL-25: R+3
LA-01: R+22
NE-02: R+6
NH-01: D+3
NM-02: D+4
NY-13: D+21
OH-02: R+4
PA-11: R+8
TX-22: R+13
WY-AL: R+3
MN-Sen: Coleman 43, Franken 42, Barkley 15
As a bonus, and as a So. Nev. resident, I’ll add that Titus in NV-03 wins by a smaller margin than she should have. Porter and Freedom’s Watch have been running vicious ads for three months, and the Titus/DCCC effort hasn’t been as sharp. Still the demographics of the district are pulling against Porter and the Obama campaign will leave no Democratic stone unturned in our GOTV efforts… I’ll give it a Titus +1 over Porter.
WA Gov- D+4
AK Sen- D+5
MS Sen- R+6
CA-46 R+12
FL-25 D+<1
LA-1 R+18
NE-2 D+3
NH-1 D+6
NM-2 D+5
NY-13 D+14
OH-2 R+6
PA-11 D+4
TX-22 R+10
WY AL R+6
MN Sen. Coleman-42 Franken-46 Barkley-12
WA-Gov: D by 1
AK-Sen: D by 5
MS-Sen-B: R by 11
CA-46: R by 5
FL-25: R by 6
LA-01: R by 16
NE-02: R by 2
NH-01: D by 4
NM-02: R by 1
NY-13: D by 22
OH-02: D by 3
PA-11: R by 4
TX-22: R by 14
WY-AL: R by 3
MN-Sen: Coleman 43, Franken 39, Barkley 18
Keep in mind that for every R+ number on this list, I ABSOLUTELY HOPE TO HIGH HEAVEN that it is wrong and turns out to be a D+ number.
WA-Gov: D+2
AK-Sen: D+24
MS-Sen*: R+2
CA-46: R+3
FL-25: D+0 (less than half percent)
LA-01: R+10
NE-02: D+1
NH-01: D+4
NM-02: D+4
NY-13: D+18
OH-02: R+2
PA-11: D+1
TX-22: R+2
WY-AL: D+0 (less than half percent)
Tiebreaker:
MN-Sen: Franken 43 Coleman 42 Barkley 15
For the Record, I am the defending Champ, though this a much harder map than the 2006 set. Still worth a shot.
WA Gov D +2
AK Sen D +10
MS Sen B R +8
CA 46 R + 10
FL 25 D +1
LA 1 R + 18
NE 2 R + 6
NM 2 D + 5
NY 13 D + 22
OH 2 R + 6
PA 11 D +1
TX 22 R + 6
WY AL R + 5
MN Sen
Franken 41 Coleman 40 Barkley 19
WA-Gov: D+6
AK-Sen: D+14
MS-Sen-B: R+6
CA-46: R+12
FL-25: D+3
LA-01: R+14
NE-02: R+4
NH-01: D+5
NM-02: D+7
NY-13: D+26
OH-02: R+9
PA-11: R+6
TX-22: R+10
WY-AL: D+2
And the tiebreaker:
MN-Sen: Franken 43 Coleman 41 Barkley 16
WA Gov: D+3
AK Sen: D+14
MS Sen: R+6
CA-46: R+6
FL-25: D+3
LA-01: R+22
NE-02: R+2
NH-01: D+3
NM-02: D+3
NY-13: D+25
OH-02: R+5
PA-11: R+4
TX-22: R+10
WY-AL: R+2
MN-Sen: Coleman 42.1, Franken 41.9, Barkley 16
WA-Gov: D+4
AK-Sen: D+6
MS-Sen-B: R+6
CA-46: R+7
FL-25: D+2
LA-01: R+20
NE-02: R+2
NH-01: D+6
NM-02: D+2
NY-13: D+16
OH-02: R+8
PA-11: R+6
TX-22: R+4
WY-AL: R+4
MN-Sen: Coleman 42%, Franken 40%, Barkley 18%
WA-Gov: D+2
AK-Sen: D+9
MS-Sen-B: R+5
CA-46: R+8
FL-25: D+1
LA-01: R+8
NE-02: R+3
NH-01: D+5
NM-02: D+4
NY-13: D+20
OH-02: D+1
PA-11: R+3
TX-22: R+5
WY-AL: R+2
MN-Sen: Franken 43 Coleman 42 Barkley 15
WA-Gov: D+4
AK-Sen: D+12
MS-Sen-B: D+1
CA-46: R+4
FL-25: D+2
LA-01: R+9
NE-02: D+2
NH-01: D+6
NM-02: D+2
NY-13: D+23
OH-02: R+3
PA-11: R+1
TX-22: R+6
WY-AL: D+1
And the tiebreaker:
MN-Sen: Coleman 42 v. Franken 44 v. Barkley 14
WA-Gov: D+3
AK-Sen: D+10
MS-Sen-B: R+4
CA-46: R+6
FL-25: R+2
LA-01: R+10
NE-02: R+5
NH-01: D+8
NM-02: D+7
NY-13: D+22
OH-02: R+2
PA-11: R+4
TX-22: R+4
WY-AL: D+1
MN-Sen: Franken 45 Coleman 42 Barkley 13
WA-GOV: D+3
AK-SEN: D+14
MS-SEN-B: R+3
CA-46: R+4
FL-25: D+3
LA-01: R+19
NE-02: R+1
NH-01: D+6
NM-02: D+4
NY-13: D+34
OH-02: R+4
PA-11: R+5
TX-22: R+7
WY-AL: R+2
MN-SEN: D 42.5 R 39.2 I 17.3
Boy, putting money on the line turns one into a realist real quick. I did not enjoy making most of those calls.
And there wasn’t even money on the line, just babka! And I don’t even know what babka is!
WA Gov D+2
AK Sen D+6
MS-B Sen R+4
CA 46 R+4
FL 25 D+2
LA 1 R+18
NE 2 R+2
NH 1 D+5
NM 2 D+4
NY 13 D+35
OH 2 R+2
PA 11 R+3
TX 22 R+4
WY AL R+2
MN Sen D44, R42, I14
WA-Gov: D+4
AK-Sen: D+6
MS-Sen-B: R+3
CA-46: D+1
FL-25: D+3
LA-01: R+9
NE-02: R+2
NH-01: D+5
NM-02: D+1
NY-13: D+13
OH-02: D+1
PA-11: R+4
TX-22: R+8
WY-AL: D+3
And the tiebreaker:
MN-Sen: R+2
Here are my revised entries. Only a few of them are actually changed.
WA-Gov- D+2
AK-Sen D+12
MS-Sen R+8
CA-46 R+9
FL-25 R+2
LA-1 R+14
NE-2 R+3
NH-1 D+3
NM-2 R+1
NY-13 D+27
OH-2 R+3
PA-11 R+5
TX-22 R+6
WY-AL R+7
MN-Sen Coleman 42, Franken 40, Barkley 18
WA-Gov: D +4
AK-Sen: D +.5
MS-Sen-B: R +5
CA-46: R +4
FL-25: D +1
LA-01: R +17
NE-02: D +2
NH-01: D +5
NM-02: D +1
NY-13: D +15
OH-02: R +4
PA-11: R +2
TX-22: R +12
WY-AL: R +2
And the tiebreaker:
MN-Sen: 47 R, 43 D, 10 IP
WA-Gov: Gregoire +4
AK-Sen: Begich +14
MS-Sen-B: Wicker +9
CA-46: Rohrabacher +2
FL-25: M. Diaz-Balart +3
LA-01: Scalise +5
NE-02: Terry +3
NH-01: Shea-Porter +4
NM-02: Teague +5
NY-13: McMahon +8
OH-02: Wulsin +7
PA-11: Barletta +1
TX-22: Olson +6
WY-AL: Trauner +2
And the tiebreaker:
MN-Sen: Coleman 47 Franken 42 Barkley 11
We don’t eat that down South.
Here are my predictions :
AK-Sen: Stevens (R) v. Begich (D) D +6
MS-Sen-B: Wicker (R) v. Musgrove (D) R +3
CA-46: Rohrabacher (R) v. Cook (D) R +1
FL-25: M. Diaz-Balart (R) v. Garcia (D) D+4
LA-01: Scalise (R) v. Harlan (D) R+12
NE-02: Terry (R) v. Esch (D) D+4
NH-01: Shea-Porter (D) v. Bradley (R) D+2
NM-02: Tinsley (R) v. Teague (D) D+3
NY-13: Straniere (R) v. McMahon (D) D+12
OH-02: Schmidt (R) v. Wulsin (D) R+1
PA-11: Kanjorski (D) v. Barletta (R) R+6
TX-22: Lampson (D) v. Olson (R) R+12
WY-AL: Lummis (R) v. Trauner (D) R+5
And the tiebreaker:
MN-Sen: Coleman (R) v. Franken (D) v. Barkley (IP)
R – 43 D – 46 I – 11
WA-Gov: D+2
AK-Sen: D+10
MS-Sen-B: R+6
CA-46: R+10
FL-25: D+2
LA-01: R+14
NE-02: R+8
NH-01: D+5
NM-02: D+5
NY-13: D+26
OH-02: R+4
PA-11: R+7
TX-22: R+8
WY-AL: R+2
MN-Sen:
Coleman: 40
Franken: 36
Barkley: 24
WA-Gov D+3
AK-SEN D+11
MS-SEN R+8
CA-46 R+6
FL-25 D+4
LA-1 R+23
NE-2 R+4
NM-2 D+1
NY-13 D+22
OH-2 R+6
PA-11 R+6
TX-22 R+10
WY-AL R+4
Frankin 43
Coleman 40
Barkley 13
WA-Gov: Gregoire (D) v. Rossi (R) D+2
AK-Sen: Stevens (R) v. Begich (D) D+9
MS-Sen-B: Wicker (R) v. Musgrove (D) R+11
CA-46: Rohrabacher (R) v. Cook (D) R+5
FL-25: M. Diaz-Balart (R) v. Garcia (D) D+3
LA-01: Scalise (R) v. Harlan (D) R+12
NE-02: Terry (R) v. Esch (D) R+3
NH-01: Shea-Porter (D) v. Bradley (R) D+3
NM-02: Tinsley (R) v. Teague (D) D+8
NY-13: Straniere (R) v. McMahon (D) D+24
OH-02: Schmidt (R) v. Wulsin (D) D+8
PA-11: Kanjorski (D) v. Barletta (R) R+6
TX-22: Lampson (D) v. Olson (R) R+6
WY-AL: Lummis (R) v. Trauner (D) R+4
Tiebreaker: Coleman 44 Franken 40 Barkley 16
WA-Gov: Gregoire D+2
AK-Sen: Begich D+9
MS-Sen-B: Wicker R+6
CA-46: Rohrabacher R+8
FL-25: Garcia D+2
LA-01: Scalise R+4
NE-02: Esch D+0
NH-01: Shea-Porter D+3
NM-02: Teague D+6
NY-13: McMahon D+11
OH-02: Wulsin D+1
PA-11: Barletta R+8
TX-22: Olson R+5
WY-AL: Trauner D+0
MN-Sen: Coleman 44 v. Franken 45 v. Barkley 11
WA-Gov: D+2
AK-Sen: D+6
MS-Sen-B: R+5
CA-46: R+3
FL-25: D+1
LA-01: R+7
NE-02: D+1
NH-01: D+6
NM-02: D+3
NY-13: D+16
OH-02: R+1
PA-11: R+1
TX-22: R+4
WY-AL: D+1
MN-Sen: Franken: 41, Coleman: 40, Barkley: 19
..say an Apple..a la Kos?
🙂
On election night, Red State will have more visitors than they would like (or want).
WA-Gov: D+4
AK-Sen: D+10
MS-Sen-B: R+4
CA-46: R+2
FL-25: D+2
LA-01: R+18
NE-02: R+2
NH-01: D+6
NM-02: D+8
NY-13: D+34
OH-02: R+2
PA-11: D+2
TX-22: R+6
WY-AL: R+4
MN-Sen:
Coleman 45
Franken 40
Barkley 15
EV Obama 364 (NM, IA, CO, VA, NV, OH, FL, NC, MO)
PV Obama +6
House -3, +30
Senate +7 (VA, NM, CO, AK, NH, OR, NC – wouldn’t be shocked though if Obama carries Franken in and/or Martin, possibly still even Musgrove, win on the back of astronomical AA turnout. Wouldn’t completely write Lunsford off either)
WA Gov D+2
AK Sen D+9
MS Sen R+4
CA46 R+4
FL25 D+5
LA1 R+6
NE2 D+2
NH1 D+6
NM2 D+3
NY13 D+18
OH2 R+2
PA11 D+1
TX22 D+2
WYAL D+1
MN Sen
Franken 45
Coleman 43
Barkley 12
WA-Gov: D+2
AK-Sen: D+10
MS-Sen-B: R+7
CA-46: R+10
FL-25: D+1
LA-01: R+18
NE-02: D+2
NH-01: D+10
NM-02: D+6
NY-13: D+12
OH-02: R+5
PA-11: R+6
TX-22: R+8
WY-AL: D+1
MN-Sen
Coleman: 41
Franken: 43
Barkley: 16
WA-Gov: Gregoire D+4
MS-Sen-B: Wicker R+5
AK-Sen: Begich D+3
CA-46: Rohrabacher R+2
FL-25: M. Diaz-Balart R+3
LA-01:Harlan D+5
NE-02: Esch D+2
NH-01: Shea-Porter D+6
NM-02: Teague D+1
NY-13: McMahon D+2
OH-02: Schmidt R+4
PA-11: Barletta R+7
TX-22: Lampson D+5
WY-AL: Trauner D+3
MN-Sen: Coleman 41% Franken 45% Barkley 11%
GO FRANKEN!!!
Here it is. But I would give it all up to have Cook win in CA-46.
WA-Gov: D+3
AK-Sen: D+9
MS-Sen-B: R+7
CA-46: R+4
FL-25: D+1
LA-01: R+14
NE-02: D+1
NH-01: D+4
NM-02: D+3
NY-13: D+16
OH-02: D+1
PA-11: R+6
TX-22: D+1
WY-AL: R+3
MN-Sen: Franken 43, Coleman 42, Barkley 15
WA-Gov: D+4
AK-Sen: D+10
MS-Sen-B: R+4
CA-46: R+5
FL-25: D+1
LA-01: R+11
NE-02: D+2
NH-01: D+9
NM-02: D+3
NY-13: D+22
OH-02: R+3
PA-11: R+3
TX-22: R+8
WY-AL: D+1
And the tiebreaker:
MN-Sen: Coleman (41) v. Franken (44) v. Barkley (15)
WA-Gov: D+2
AK-Sen: D+9
MS-Sen-B: R+4
CA-46: R+6
FL-25: D+1
LA-01: R+11
NE-02: D+2
NH-01: D+2
NM-02: D+4
NY-13: D+14
OH-01: R+3
PA-11: R+2
TX-22: R+7
WY-AL: R+3
MN-SEN: Franken (DFL) 44%, Coleman (R) 41%, Barkley (I) 15%
WA-Gov: D + 4
AK-Sen: D + 11
MS-Sen-B: R +8
CA-46: R + 5
FL-25: D +1
LA-01: R + 16
NE-02: R +1
NH-01: D +6
NM-02: D +6
NY-13: D + 12
OH-02: R +4
PA-11: R + 2
TX-22: R + 9
WY-AL: R + 5
And the tiebreaker:
MN-Sen: Franken 44 Coleman 42 Barkley 14
WA-Gov: D +2
AK-Sen: D +4
MS-Sen: R +5
CA-46: D +2
FL-25: D +2
LA-01: D +4
NE-02: D +3
NH-01: D +6
NM-02: D +4
NY-13: D +2
OH-02: R +3
PA-11: R +6
TX-22: R +3
WY-AL: R +2
And the tiebreaker:
MN-Sen: D +4
WA-Gov: Gregoire (D) v. Rossi (R) D+2
AK-Sen: Stevens (R) v. Begich (D) D+13
MS-Sen-B: Wicker (R) v. Musgrove (D) R+8
CA-46: Rohrabacher (R) v. Cook (D) R+7
FL-25: M. Diaz-Balart (R) v. Garcia (D) D+2
LA-01: Scalise (R) v. Harlan (D) R+17
NE-02: Terry (R) v. Esch (D) R+5
NH-01: Shea-Porter (D) v. Bradley (R) D+8
NM-02: Tinsley (R) v. Teague (D) D+5
NY-13: Straniere (R) v. McMahon (D) D+19
OH-02: Schmidt (R) v. Wulsin (D) R+3
PA-11: Kanjorski (D) v. Barletta (R) R+4
TX-22: Lampson (D) v. Olson (R) R+9
WY-AL: Lummis (R) v. Trauner (D) R+4
Minnesota Senate:
Franken- 41.5
Coleman-44
Barkely-14.5
D+6
*[new] my predictions
WA-Gov: D+0.5
AK-Sen: D+17
MS-Sen-B: R+2
CA-46: R+1
FL-25: R+1
LA-01: R+1
NE-02: D+1
NH-01: D+2
NM-02: D+3
NY-13: D+13
OH-02: D+0
PA-11: R+3
TX-22: R+6
WY-AL: R+1
MN-Sen: Franken 42, Coleman 41, Barkley 17
WA Gov-D+3
AK Sen-D+10
MS-Sen(B)-R+6
CA-46-R+9
FL-25-R+2
LA-01-R+21
NE-02-R+5
NH-01-D+5
NM-02-D+1
NY-13-D+10
OH-02-R+4
PA-11-D+3 (I think he pulls it out with Obama’s coattails)
TX-22-R+5
WY-AL-R+5
MN-Sen-45D,44R,10I
WA-Gov: D+3
AK-Sen: D+9
MS-Sen-B: R+1.26
CA-46: R+10
FL-25: D+4
LA-01: R+25
NE-02: R+4
NH-01: D+5
NM-02: D+6
NY-13: D+21
OH-02: R+2
PA-11: R+3
TX-22: R+6
WY-AL: D+1.5
And the tiebreaker:
MN-Sen: Franken 44.5, Coleman 43.4, Barkley 12
WA-Gov: D+6
AK-Sen: D+15
MS-Sen-B: R+2.5
CA-46: R+9
FL-25: D+3
LA-01: R+20
NE-02: D+.5
NH-01: D+6
NM-02: D+7
NY-13: D+23
OH-02: D+1
PA-11: R+4
TX-22: R+2
WY-AL: D+1
Wa-Gov: D+2
AK-Sen: D+6
MS-Sen-B: R+9
CA-46: R+5
FL-25: R+1
LA-01: R+10
NE-02: D+1
NH-01: D+7
NM-02: D+1
NY-13: D+10
OH-02: R+6
PA-11: R+3
TX-22: R+12
WY-AL: R+1
MN-Sen
Coleman: 40
Franken: 42
Barkley: 18
WA-Gov: D+4
AK-Sen: D+7
MS-Sen-B: R+9
CA-46: D+1
FL-25: D+1
LA-01: D+3
NE-02: R+2
NH-01: D+3
NM-02: D+4
NY-13: D+16
OH-02: D+3
PA-11: R+3
TX-22: R+11
WY-AL: R+3
And the tiebreaker:
MN-Sen: Coleman 45 Franken 42 Barkley 12
WA-Gov: D+5
AK-Sen: D+14
MS-Sen-B: R+3
CA-46: D+2
FL-25: D+3
LA-01: R+6
NE-02: D+2
NH-01: D+7
NM-02: D+6
NY-13: D+22
OH-02: D+1
PA-11: R+2
TX-22: D+1
WY-AL: D+3
Tiebreaker:
MN-Sen: Franken-44, Coleman-41, Barkley-14
WA-GOV: D+5
AK-SEN: D+!0
MS-SEN: R+7
CA-46: R+8
FL-25: R+2
LA-01: R+18
NE-02: R+6
NH-01: D+7
NM-02: D+5
NY-13: D+20
OH-02: R+5
PA-11: R+6
TX-22: R+9
WY-AL: R+3
MN-SEN: Franken 43, Coleman 42, Barkley 15
WA-Gov: D+3
AK-Sen: D+10
MS-Sen-B: R+5
CA-46: R+6
FL-25: D+3
LA-01: R+11
NE-02: D+1
NH-01: D+9
NM-02: D+4
NY-13: D+16
OH-02: R+2
PA-11: R+2
TX-22: R+4
WY-AL: D+1
And the tiebreaker:
MN-Sen: Coleman (R) 40% v. Franken (D) 42% v. Barkley (IP) – 18%
WA-Gov: D+5
AK-Sen: D+10
MS-Sen-B: R+6
CA-46: D+3
FL-25: D+4
LA-01: R+20
NE-02: D+3
NH-01: D+8
NM-02: D+6
NY-13: D+14
OH-02: D+1
PA-11: R+6
TX-22: R+9
WY-AL: R+2
MN-Sen: Franken 41, Coleman 40, Barkley 19
WA-Gov: D+5
AK-Sen: D+9
MS-SEN-B: R+2
CA-46: R+5
FL-25: D+1
LA-01: R+11
NE-02: D+2
NH-01: D+4
NM-02: R+2
NY+13: D+12
OH-02: R+3
PA-11: D+>1
TX-22: R+5
WY-AL: D+4
MN-SEN: D-41, R-38, I-16
WA-Gov: D+7
AK-Sen: D+20
MS-Sen-B: R+8
CA-46: R+2
FL-25: D+1
LA-01: R+20
NE-02: R+2
NH-01: D+5
NM-02: D+7
NY-13: D+12
OH-02: R+2
PA-11: R+4
TX-22: D+1
WY-AL: D+2
MN-Sen: D+4
WA-GOV: D +2
AK-Sen: D +15
MS-Sen: R +7
CA-46: R +1
FL-25: R+1
LA-1:R+30
NE-2:R+2
NM-2:D+4
NY-13:D+17
OH-2:R+2
PA-11:R+2
TX-22:R+9
WY-AL:R+6
Tie Breaker:
Franken 42.4%
Coleman 42.3%
Barkley 15%
WA-Gov: Gregoire (D) v. Rossi (R) D +4
AK-Sen: Stevens (R) v. Begich (D) D +7
MS-Sen-B: Wicker (R) v. Musgrove (D) R +3
CA-46: Rohrabacher (R) v. Cook (D) R +5
FL-25: M. Diaz-Balart (R) v. Garcia (D) D +1
LA-01: Scalise (R) v. Harlan (D) R +6
NE-02: Terry (R) v. Esch (D) D +1
NH-01: Shea-Porter (D) v. Bradley (R) D +3
NM-02: Tinsley (R) v. Teague (D) D +4
NY-13: Straniere (R) v. McMahon (D) D + 10
OH-02: Schmidt (R) v. Wulsin (D) R +6
PA-11: Kanjorski (D) v. Barletta (R) R + 2
TX-22: Lampson (D) v. Olson (R) R + 10
WY-AL: Lummis (R) v. Trauner (D) R + 2
And the tiebreaker:
MN-Sen: Coleman (R) v. Franken (D) v. Barkley (IP) 43R-46D-11IP
WA-Gov: D+3
AK-Sen: D+15
MS-Sen-B: R+10
CA-46: R+6
FL-25: D+2
LA-01: R+10
NE-02: D+1
NH-01: D+5
NM-02: D+4
NY-13: D+20
OH-02: R+4
PA-11: R+6
TX-22: R+10
WY-AL: R+3
MS-Sen: Franken 44, Coleman 42, Barkley 14
Just send me the babka now, I’m a psychic and I know I nailed it
WA-Gov D + 7
AK-Sen D + 13
MS-Sen-B R + 1
CA-46 R + 6
FL-25 D + 4
LA-01 R + 11
NE-02 D + 0
NH-01 D + 5
NM-02 D + 6
NY-13 D + 20
OH-02 D + 2
PA-11 R + 2
TX-22 R + 7
WY-AL D + 1
MN-Sen D + 3
WA-Gov: D+5
AK-Sen: D+7
MS-Sen-B: R+5
CA-46: R+3
FL-25: D+2
LA-01: R+9
NE-02: R+1
NH-01: D+8
NM-02: D+6
NY-13: D+16
OH-02: R+3
TX-22: R+8
WY-AL: D+1
Franken: 44, Coleman 41, Barkley 15
WA-Gov: D+4
AK-Sen: D+6
MS-Sen-B: R+3
CA-46: D+1
FL-25: D+2
LA-01: R+10
NE-02: D+1
NH-01: D+2
NM-02: D+4
NY-13: D+13
OH-02: R+3
PA-11: R+3
TX-22: R+5
WY-AL: D+2
MN-Sen: Franken 43 Coleman 42 Barkley 15
WA-Gov: D+6
AK-Sen: D+18
MS-Sen-B: R+4
CA-46: D+1
FL-25: D+2
LA-01: R+6
NE-02: D+1
NH-01: D+8
NM-02: D+6
NY-13: D+28
OH-02: D+2
PA-11: R+2
TX-22: R+4
WY-AL: D+2
And the tiebreaker:
MN-Sen: R40 D42 I7