GA-Sen: Runoff Seems Likely

Rasmussen (10/30, likely voters, 10/22 in parens):

Jim Martin (D): 43 (45)

Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 48 (47)

Allen Buckley (L): 7 (1)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

That’s a big surge for Buckley, who perhaps got a boost from his recent debate performances — or perhaps this is mostly just noise.

Research 2000 (for the Great Orange Satan) has a different picture (10/28-30, likely voters, 10/14-15 in parens):

Jim Martin (D): 46 (45)

Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 47 (47)

Allen Buckley (L): 5 (5)

(MoE: ±4%)

Among those who have already voted (12% of the sample), Martin leads by 56-39. The good news for Martin is that he’s running ahead of Obama in the early vote — albeit just slightly (Obama leads McCain 55-40 among these voters, and trails McCain 47-44 overall). For Martin to have a shot at coming ahead of Chambliss on November 4th (or even taking 50% plus one), he’d need to run ahead of Obama here — and earlier polls from SurveyUSA were suggesting the opposite in the early vote.

A small chance exists that Martin could come out on top without a runoff on Tuesday, but I wouldn’t place my money on it.

UPDATE: A new CNN/Time poll has Chambliss leading Martin by 53-44 among likely voters (his best margin in quite some time), but only by 48-47 among registered voters. The problem with this poll? It didn’t include Buckley.

6 thoughts on “GA-Sen: Runoff Seems Likely”

  1. We want a runoff here, as compared to a Chambliss victory, right?

    Or do people think Martin’s chances in a runoff are so bad that we really need an (improbable) outright win on Tuesday?

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