Rasmussen (10/30, likely voters, 10/22 in parens):
Jim Martin (D): 43 (45)
Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 48 (47)
Allen Buckley (L): 7 (1)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
That’s a big surge for Buckley, who perhaps got a boost from his recent debate performances — or perhaps this is mostly just noise.
Research 2000 (for the Great Orange Satan) has a different picture (10/28-30, likely voters, 10/14-15 in parens):
Jim Martin (D): 46 (45)
Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 47 (47)
Allen Buckley (L): 5 (5)
(MoE: ±4%)
Among those who have already voted (12% of the sample), Martin leads by 56-39. The good news for Martin is that he’s running ahead of Obama in the early vote — albeit just slightly (Obama leads McCain 55-40 among these voters, and trails McCain 47-44 overall). For Martin to have a shot at coming ahead of Chambliss on November 4th (or even taking 50% plus one), he’d need to run ahead of Obama here — and earlier polls from SurveyUSA were suggesting the opposite in the early vote.
A small chance exists that Martin could come out on top without a runoff on Tuesday, but I wouldn’t place my money on it.
UPDATE: A new CNN/Time poll has Chambliss leading Martin by 53-44 among likely voters (his best margin in quite some time), but only by 48-47 among registered voters. The problem with this poll? It didn’t include Buckley.
We want a runoff here, as compared to a Chambliss victory, right?
Or do people think Martin’s chances in a runoff are so bad that we really need an (improbable) outright win on Tuesday?