Alright! So I’ll start out with a key to make sure we’re all on the same page. Here’s an example:
1. New York-13*** (D+1) – – – R2B (X)
Mike McMahon v. Robert Straniere
Total Raised — $1,156,000 v. $123,000
Cash On Hand — $285,000 v. $11,000
CQ Politics – “Democrat Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Democrat”
(Likely Democratic Pickup)
First, I have the district. In this case it is New York’s 13th distict. When I talk about “Total Raised” I include self-funding and transfers from state parties/etc. The numbers I am using are all Pre-General numbers fundraising numbers that just add the first two weeks of October to the big 3Q fundraising rundown SSP did. Obviously I point out CQ Politics and Cook’s ratings of every race, then I tag my personal rating to the race. I also divide my rankings with a long line of dashes, to signify a change in rankings. I appropriately always put the Democrat on the left, and the Republican on the right!
*** = Retired Incumbent
(X) = I expect this race to flip from the holding party
(-) = I expect the current holding party to retain this seat
If you have any questions regarding my ratings, please feel free to ask! My ratings move from Senate Republicans, to House Republicans, and then House Democrats.
What I would deem “Upset Picks” in the house are Glenn Nye in VA-02, Michael Montagano in IN-03, and Bob Lord in AZ-03.
Senate Republicans
1. Virginia*** (X)
Former Governor Mark Warner v. Former Governor Jim Gilmore
Total Raised — $12,891,000 v. $2,026,000
Cash On Hand — $3,642,000 v. $85,000
CQ Politics – “Safe Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Democrat”
(Safe Democratic Pick-up)
2. New Mexico*** (X)
Representative Tom Udall v. Representative Steven Pearce
Total Raised — $6,683,000 v. $4,082,000
Cash On Hand — $935,000 v. $397,000
CQ Politics – “Democrat Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”
(Safe Democratic Pick-up)
3. Colorado*** (X)
Representative Mark Udall v. Former Representative Bob Schaffer
Total Raised — $10,791,000 v. $6,981,000
Cash On Hand —– $470,000 v. $1,518,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”
(Safe Democratic Pick-up)
———————————————————————
4. New Hampshire (X)
Former Governor Jeanne Shaheen v. Incumbent Senator John Sununu
Total Raised — $7,119,000 v. $8,394,000
Cash On Hand – $1,763,000 v. $2,425,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
(Likely Democratic Pick-up)
5. Alaska (X)
Mayor Mark Begich v. Incumbent Senator Ted Stevens
Total Raised — $3,519,000 v. $4,501,000
Cash On Hand — $629,000 v. $833,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”
(Likely Democratic Pickup)
———————————————————————
6. Oregon (X)
State Speaker Jeff Merkley v. Incumbent Senator Gordon Smith
Total Raised — $5,606,000 v. $8,302,000
Cash On Hand – $1,139,000 v. $815,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
(Lean Democratic Pickup)
7. North Carolina (X)
State Senator Kay Hagan v. Incumbent Senator Liddy Dole
Total Raised — $6,244,000 v. $15,546,000
Cash On Hand — $503,000 v. $2,803,000
CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
(Lean Democratic Pickup)
———————————————————————
8. Minnesota (X)
Al Franken v. Incumbent Senator Norm Coleman
Total Raised — $17,005,000 v. $17,907,000
Cash On Hand —- $182,000 v. $3,996,000
CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
(Toss Up)
9. Kentucky (-)
Bruce Lunsford v. Incumbent Senator Mitch McConnell
Total Raised — $7,700,000 v. $14,065,000
Cash On Hand — $165,000 v. $3,723,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Republican”
(Toss Up)
10. Georgia (RO -)
Jim Martin v. Saxby Chambliss
Total Raised — $3,030,000 v. $7,662,000
Cash On Hand —- $585,000 v. $836,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
(Toss Up)
11. Mississippi-B*** (-)
Former Governor Ronnie Musgrove v. Representative Roger Wicker
Total Raised — $2,204,000 v. $5,479,000
Cash On Hand — $337,000 v. $683,000
CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
(Toss Up)
———————————————————————
12. Maine (-)
Representative Tom Allen v. Incumbent Senator Susan Collins
Total Raised — $5,746,000 v. $7,281,000
Cash On Hand — $987,000 v. $2,101,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”
(Likely Republican Retention)
House Republicans
1. New York-13*** (D+1) (X)
Mike McMahon v. Robert Straniere
Total Raised — $1,156,000 v. $123,000
Cash On Hand — $285,000 v. $11,000
CQ Politics – “Democrat Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Democrat”
(Likely Democratic Pickup)
2. New York-25*** (D+3) (X)
Dan Maffei v. Dale Sweetland
Total Raised — $2,016,000 v. $365,000
Cash On Hand — $351,000 v. $116,000
CQ Politics – “Democrat Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Democrat”
(Likely Democratic Pickup)
3. Virginia-11*** (R+1) (X)
Gerry Connolly v. Keith Fimian
Total Raised — $1,782,000 v. $1,762,000
Cash On Hand — $461,000 v. $655,000
CQ Politics – “Democrat Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Democrat”
(Likely Democratic Pickup)
4. Arizona-01*** (R+2) (X)
Ann Kirkpatrick v. Sydney Hay
Total Raised — $1,730,000 v. $433,000
Cash On Hand — $186,000 v. $91,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Democrat”
(Likely Democratic Pickup)
5. Alaska-AL (R+14) (X)
Ethan Berkowitz v. Representative Don Young
Total Raised — $1,369,000 v. $1,278,000
Cash On Hand —- $71,000 v. $158,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
(Likely Democratic Pickup)
6. Illinois-11*** (R+1) (X)
Debbie Halvorson v. Martin Ozinga
Total Raised — $2,053,000 v. $1,624,000
Cash On Hand — $237,000 v. $207,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”
(Likely Democratic Pickup)
7. Ohio-16*** (R+4) (X)
John Boccieri v. Kirk Schuring
Total Raised — $1,578,000 v. $1,162,000
Cash On Hand — $281,000 v. $84,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”
(Likely Democratic Pickup)
8. Florida-24 (R+3) (X)
Suzanne Kosmas v. Representative Tom Feeney
Total Raised — $1,712,000 v. $1,990,000
Cash On Hand — $147,000 v. $711,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”
(Likely Democratic Pickup)
9. North Carolina-08 (R+3) (X)
Larry Kissell v. Representative Robert Hayes
Total Raised — $1,106,000 v. $3,295,000
Cash On Hand —- $58,000 v. $752,000
CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
(Likely Democratic Pickup)
10. New Jersey-03*** (D+3) (X)
John Adler v. Chris Myers
Total Raised — $2,610,000 v. $1,145,000
Cash On Hand — $834,000 v. $217,000
CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
(Likely Democratic Pickup)
11. New Mexico-01*** (D+2) (X)
Martin Heinrich v. Darren White
Total Raised — $2,120,000 v. $1,630,000
Cash On Hand — $167,000 v. $515,000
CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”
(Likely Democratic Pickup)
———————————————————————
12. Minnesota-03*** (R+1) (X)
Ashwin Madia v. Erik Paulsen
Total Raised — $2,303,000 v. $2,426,000
Cash On Hand — $598,000 v. $717,000
CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
(Lean Democratic Pickup)
13. Ohio-15*** (R+1) (X)
Mary Jo Kilroy v. Steve Stivers
Total Raised — $2,274,000 v. $1,988,000
Cash On Hand — $448,000 v. $417,000
CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”
(Lean Democratic Pickup)
14. Michigan-07 (R+2) (X)
Mark Schauer v. Representative Tim Walberg
Total Raised — $2,017,000 v. $1,699,000
Cash On Hand — $735,000 v. $412,000
CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
(Lean Democratic Pickup)
15. Colorado-04 (R+9) (X)
Betsy Markey v. Representative Marilyn Musgrave
Total Raised — $2,182,000 v. $2,493,000
Cash On Hand — $225,000 v. $325,000
CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
(Lean Democratic Pickup)
16. Nevada-03 (D+1) (X)
Dina Titus v. Representative Jon Porter
Total Raised — $1,445,000 v. $2,658,000
Cash On Hand —- $64,000 v. $134,000
CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
(Lean Democratic Pickup)
17. Michigan-09 (R+0) (X)
Gary Peters v. Representative Joe Knollenberg
Total Raised — $2,220,000 v. $3,295,000
Cash On Hand — $116,000 v. $1,624,000
CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
(Lean Democratic Pickup)
18. Florida-08 (R+3) (X)
Alan Grayson v. Representative Richard Keller
Total Raised — $2,549,000 v. $1,483,000
Cash On Hand — $425,000 v. $706,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
(Lean Democratic Pickup)
19. New Jersey-07*** (R+1) (X)
Linda Stender v. Leonard Lance
Total Raised — $2,408,000 v. $1,216,000
Cash On Hand — $304,000 v. $275,000
CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
(Lean Democratic Pickup)
20. New Mexico-02*** (R+6) (X)
Harry Teague v. Ed Tinsley
Total Raised — $3,223,000 v. $2,229,000
Cash On Hand — $401,000 v. $436,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
(Lean Democratic Pickup)
21. Louisiana-04*** (R+7) R2B (X)
Paul Carmouche v. John Fleming
Total Raised — $849,000 v. $1,007,000
Cash On Hand — $59,000 v. $16,000
CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
(Lean Democratic Pickup)
22. New York-29 (R+5) (X)
Eric Massa v. Representative Randy Kuhl
Total Raised — $1,796,000 v. $1,359,000
Cash On Hand — $234,000 v. $209,000
CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
(Lean Democratic Pickup)
23. Minnesota-06 (R+5) (X)
Elwyn Tinklenberg v. Representative Michele Bachmann
Total Raised — $2,411,000 v. $2,509,000
Cash On Hand – $1,591,000 v. $1,171,000
CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
(Lean Democratic Pickup)
24. Pennsylvania-03 (R+2) (X)
Kathleen Dahlkemper v. Representative Phil English
Total Raised — $906,000 v. $2,261,000
Cash On Hand – $161,000 v. $286,000
CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
(Lean Democratic Pickup)
———————————————————————
25. Ohio-01 (R+1) (X)
Steve Driehaus v. Representative Steve Chabot
Total Raised — $1,256,000 v. $2,125,000
Cash On Hand — $216,000 v. $481,000
CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
(Toss Up)
26. Idaho-01 (R+19) (X)
Walt Minnick v. Representative Bill Sali
Total Raised — $2,299,000 v. $1,019,000
Cash On Hand — $226,000 v. $167,000
CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
(Toss Up)
27. Connecticut-04 (D+5) (X)
Jim Himes v. Representative Chris Shays
Total Raised — $3,226,000 v. $3,329,000
Cash On Hand — $282,000 v. $1,180,000
CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
(Toss Up)
28. Florida-21 (R+6) (X)
Raul Martinez v. Representative Lincoln Diaz Balart
Total Raised — $1,767,000 v. $2,069,000
Cash On Hand — $693,000 v. $1,315,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
(Toss Up)
29. Alabama-02*** (R+13) (X)
Bobby Bright v. Jay Love
Total Raised — $893,000 v. $2,032,000
Cash On Hand — $43,000 v. $78,000
CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
(Toss Up)
30. Florida-25 (R+4) (X)
Joe Garcia v. Representative Mario Diaz-Balart
Total Raised — $1,481,000 v. $1,634,000
Cash On Hand — $235,000 v. $810,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
(Toss Up)
31. Illinois-10 (D+4) (X)
Dan Seals v. Representative Mark Kirk
Total Raised — $3,022,000 v. $4,853,000
Cash On Hand — $269,000 v. $885,000
CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
(Toss Up)
32. Washington-08 (D+2) (X)
Darcy Burner v. Representative Dave Reichert
Total Raised — $3,505,000 v. $2,403,000
Cash On Hand — $194,000 v. $585,000
CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
(Toss Up)
33. Arizona-03 (R+6) (X)
Bob Lord v. Representative John Shadegg
Total Raised — $1,510,000 v. $2,231,000
Cash On Hand —- $94,000 v. $529,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Republican”
(Toss Up)
34. Maryland-01*** (R+10) (-)
Frank Kratovil v. Andrew Harris
Total Raised — $1,542,000 v. $2,743,000
Cash On Hand — $174,000 v. $586,000
CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
(Toss Up)
35. Kentucky-02*** (R+13) (-)
David Boswell v. Brett Guthrie
Total Raised — $675,000 v. $1,102,000
Cash On Hand – $138,000 v. $424,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
(Toss Up)
36. Missouri-09*** (R+7) (-)
Judy Baker v. Blaine Luetkemeyer
Total Raised — $1,253,000 v. $1,440,000
Cash On Hand — $100,000 v. $28,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
(Toss Up)
37. California-04*** (R+11) (X)
Charlie Brown v. Thomas McClintock
Total Raised — $2,010,000 v. $2,791,000
Cash On Hand — $225,000 v. $66,000
CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
(Toss Up)
38. Virginia-02 (R+6) (X)
Glenn Nye v. Representative Thelma Drake
Total Raised — $1,004,000 v. $1,890,000
Cash On Hand — $269,000 v. $508,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
(Toss Up)
39. Nebraska-02 (R+9) (-)
James Esch v. Representative Lee Terry
Total Raised — $686,000 v. $1,447,000
Cash On Hand – $111,000 v. $330,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
(Toss Up)
———————————————————————
40. Indiana-03 (R+16) (X)
Michael Montagano v. Representative Mike Souder
Total Raised — $681,000 v. $863,000
Cash On Hand —- $3,000 v. $251,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Republican”
(Lean Republican Retention)
41. Ohio-02 (R+13) (-)
Victoria Wulsin v. Representative Jean Schmidt
Total Raised — $1,637,000 v. $1,125,000
Cash On Hand — $180,000 v. $158,000
CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Republican”
(Lean Republican Retention)
42. Texas-10 (R+13) (-)
Larry Doherty v. Representative Mike McCaul
Total Raised — $1,048,000 v. $1,373,000
Cash On Hand —- $56,000 v. $300,000
CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Republican”
(Lean Republican Retention)
43. Missouri-06 (R+5) (-)
Kay Barnes v. Representative Sam Graves
Total Raised — $2,594,000 v. $2,371,000
Cash On Hand —- $32,000 v. $222,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Republican”
(Lean Republican Retention)
44. New York-26*** (R+3) (-)
Alice Kryzan v. Chris Lee
Total Raised — $713,000 v. $1,522,000
Cash On Hand — $89,000 v. $126,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
(Lean Republican Retention)
45. Texas-07 (R+16) (-)
Michael Skelly v. Representative John Culberson
Total Raised — $2,804,000 v. $1,536,000
Cash On Hand — $610,000 v. $219,000
CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Republican”
(Lean Republican Retention)
46. Wyoming-AL*** (R+19) (-)
Gary Trauner v. Cynthia Lummis
Total Raised — $1,460,000 v. $1,084,000
Cash On Hand — $440,000 v. $124,000
CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Republican”
(Lean Republican Retention)
47. Virginia-05 (R+6) (-)
Tom Perriello v. Representative Virgil Goode
Total Raised — $1,502,000 v. $1,488,000
Cash On Hand — $101,000 v. $697,000
CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Republican”
(Likely Republican Retention)
48. Nevada-02 (R+8) (-)
Jill Derby v. Representative Dean Heller
Total Raised — $913,000 v. $1,538,000
Cash On Hand – $155,000 v. $309,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Republican”
(Lean Republican Retention)
49. West Virginia-02 (R+5) (-)
Anne Barth v. Representative Shelly Capito Moore
Total Raised — $1,099,000 v. $1,985,000
Cash On Hand — $227,000 v. $391,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Republican”
(Likely Republican Retention)
———————————————————————
50. Florida-13 (R+4) (-)
Christine Jennings v. Representative Vernon Buchanan
Total Raised — $1,729,000 v. $4,200,000
Cash On Hand — $218,000 v. $334,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”
(Likely Republican Retention)
51. Pennsylvania-15 (D+2) (-)
Siobhan Bennett v. Representative Charlie Dent
Total Raised — $870,000 v. $1,771,000
Cash On Hand — $67,000 v. $489,000
CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”
(Likely Republican Retention)
52. Ohio-07*** (R+6) (-)
Sharen Neuhardt v. Steve Austria
Total Raised — $656,000 v. $1,116,000
Cash On Hand — $83,000 v. $271,000
CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”
(Likely Republican Retention)
53. Alabama-03 (R+4) (-)
Josh Segall v. Representative Mike Rogers
Total Raised — $870,000 v. $1,306,000
Cash On Hand — $48,000 v. $431,000
CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”
(Likely Republican Retention)
54. Virginia-10 (R+5) (-)
Judy Feder v. Representative Frank Wolf
Total Raised — $1,933,000 v. $1,886,000
Cash On Hand — $362,000 v. $993,000
CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”
(Likely Republican Retention)
55. New Jersey-05 (R+4) (-)
Dennis Shulman v. Representative Scott Garrett
Total Raised — $994,000 v. $1,348,000
Cash On Hand – $127,000 v. $411,000
CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”
(Likely Republican Retention)
56. California-46 (R+6) (-)
Debbie Cook v. Representative Dana Rohrabacher
Total Raised — $332,000 v. $560,000
Cash On Hand — $14,000 v. $423,000
CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”
(Likely Republican Retention)
House Democrats
1. Florida-16 (R+2) (X)
Representative Tim Mahoney v. Tom Rooney
Total Raised — $3,128,000 v. $1,274,000
Cash On Hand — $304,000 v. $253,000
CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”
(Likely Republican Pickup)
———————————————————————
2. Pennsylvania-11 (D+5) (X)
Representative Paul Kanjorski v. Lou Barletta
Total Raised — $2,274,000 v. $1,068,000
Cash On Hand — $990,000 v. $103,000
CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
(Toss Up)
3. Texas-22 (R+15) (X)
Representative Nick Lampson v. Pete Olson
Total Raised — $2,037,000 v. $2,033,000
Cash On Hand — $897,000 v. $278,000
CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
(Toss Up)
———————————————————————
4. Kansas-02 (R+7) (-)
Representative Nancy Boyda v. Lynn Jenkins
Total Raised — $1,599,000 v. $1,563,000
Cash On Hand — $336,000 v. $362,000
CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”
(Lean Democratic Retention)
5. New Hampshire-01 (R+0) (-)
Representative Carol Shea-Porter v. Jeb Bradley
Total Raised — $1,326,000 v. $1,102,000
Cash On Hand — $172,000 v. $190,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
(Lean Democratic Retention)
6. Louisiana-06 (R+7) (-)
Don Cazayoux v. Bill Cassidy
Total Raised — $2,514,000 v. $932,000
Cash On Hand — $153,000 v. $312,000
CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
(Lean Democratic Retention)
7. Alabama-05*** (R+6) (-)
Parker Griffith v. Wayne Parker
Total Raised — $1,294,000 v. $1,081,000
Cash On Hand —- $65,000 v. $147,000
CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
(Lean Democratic Retention)
8. Wisconsin-08 (R+4) (-)
Representative Steve Kagen v. John Gard
Total Raised — $1,888,000 v. $1,420,000
Cash On Hand — $193,000 v. $487,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”
(Lean Democratic Retention)
9. Pennsylvania-10 (R+8) (-)
Representative Chris Carney v. Chris Hackett
Total Raised — $2,191,000 v. $2,407,000
Cash On Hand — $313,000 v. $281,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”
(Lean Democratic Retention)
10. Kentucky-03 (D+2) (-)
Representative John Yarmuth v. Anne Northup
Total Raised — $2,064,000 v. $1,617,000
Cash On Hand — $435,000 v. $469,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Democrat”
(Lean Democratic Retention)
———————————————————————
11. Georgia-08 (R+8) (-)
Representative Jim Marshall v. Richard Goddard
Total Raised — $1,598,000 v. $1,108,000
Cash On Hand — $835,000 v. $278,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”
(Likely Democratic Retention)
12. Oregon-05*** (D+1) (-)
Kurt Shrader v. Michael Erickson
Total Raised — $1,156,000 v. $2,330,000
Cash On Hand — $126,000 v. $22,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Democrat”
(Likely Democratic Retention)
13. Pennsylvania-04 (R+3) (-)
Representative Jason Altmire v. Melissa Hart
Total Raised — $2,756,000 v. $1,266,000
Cash On Hand — $596,000 v. $656,000
CQ Politics – “Likely Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Democrat”
(Likely Democratic Retention)
14. Mississippi-01 (R+10) (-)
Travis Childers v. Greg Davis
Total Raised — $1,724,000 v. $1,510,000
Cash On Hand — $107,000 v. $173,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Democrat”
(Likely Democratic Retention)
15. Arizona-08 (R+1) (-)
Representative Gabrielle Giffords v. Tim Bee
Total Raised — $3,167,000 v. $1,748,000
Cash On Hand — $949,000 v. $170,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Democrat”
(Likely Democratic Retention)
16. New York-20 (R+3) (-)
Representative Kirsten Gillibrand v. Alexander Treadwell
Total Raised — $4,571,000 v. $6,905,000
Cash On Hand — $886,000 v. $1,326,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Democrat”
(Likely Democratic Retention)
17. California-11 (R+3) (-)
Representative Jerry McNerney v. Dean Andal
Total Raised — $2,886,000 v. $1,289,000
Cash On Hand — $792,000 v. $271,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”
(Likely Democratic Retention)
18. Arizona-05 (R+4) (-)
Representative Harry Mitchell v. David Schweikert
Total Raised — $2,216,000 v. $1,287,000
Cash On Hand — $223,000 v. $116,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Democrat”
(Likely Democratic Retention)
19. Texas-23 (R+4) (-)
Representative Ciro Rodriguez v. Lyle Larson
Total Raised — $1,723,000 v. $734,000
Cash On Hand — $619,000 v. $99,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Democrat”
(Likely Democratic Retention)
20. Illinois-14 (R+5) (-)
Representative Bill Foster v. Jim Oberweis
Total Raised — $4,792,000 v. $4,998,000
Cash On Hand — $275,000 v. $212,000
CQ Politics – “Democrat Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Democrat”
(Likely Democratic Retention)
21. Indiana-09 (R+7) (-)
Representative Baron Hill v. Mike Sodrel
Total Raised — $2,095,000 v. $895,000
Cash On Hand — $480,000 v. $120,000
CQ Politics – “Likely Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Democrat”
(Likely Democratic Retention)
22. Minnesota-01 (R+1) (-)
Representative Tim Walz v. Brian Davis
Total Raised — $2,677,000 v. $1,008,000
Cash On Hand — $730,000 v. $266,000
CQ Politics – “Democrat Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Democrat”
(Likely Democratic Retention)
Current Breakdown
1 Republican President
28D-22R Governors
51D-49R Senators
236D-199R Representatives
Projected Outcome
1 Democratic President
29D-21R Governors
59D-41R Senate
269D-166R Representatives
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I actually have Dems getting 270 in the House.
You might want to add that on the heels of the NRCC ad buy.
Clearly presented with lots of good info, and good judgements.
I still think we’ll come out with more like 40 seats. Who? Where? From outer space, I dunno, maybe seats such as FL-18, GA-01, NC-05 and/or NC-10, SC-01 and/or SC-02, IA-04 and/or IA-05, WA-04, OH-03 and/or OH-14, many other possibilities.
Possible like, we wake up in the morning to find a big lump of molten metal smashed on top of smug and deserving Repub incumbents and we’ll exclaim, “WTF! Where did that come from, outer space?” And whether it’s an asteroid or a melted down trailer house won’t matter.
Seriously, this is a change election. The people want change, and for very good reason. Yes, in some places they are more determined to get change than in other places. But if and when the votes go looking for change, they can find it, with little-known, under-funded Democrats who have dared to place their names in opposition to the incumbents. We will have some winners on Wednesday morning who we never saw coming, and they will have losers who never knew what hit them.
I sure hope you are right. I have a net of 25 with 28 flipping from R to D and 3 going the other way (Mahoney, Lampson, and Kanjorski). This is probably conservative, but I’m trying not to get my hopes too high.
my House predictions are:
AZ-1
AL-2
AK-AL
CA-4
CO-4
CT-4
FL-21
FL-16
FL-24
IL-10
IL-11
MD-1
MI-7
MI-9
MN-3
MN-6
MV-3
NJ-3
NE-2
NJ-7
NY-12
NY-25
NY-26
NM-1
NM-2
NC-8
OH-1
OH-15
OH-16
PA-3
VA-11
ID-1
WA-8
SC-1
I also figure think we’ll only lose FL-16 — which would give us a net pick-up of 33 seats