My Finalized Predictions!

Alright!  So I’ll start out with a key to make sure we’re all on the same page.  Here’s an example:

1. New York-13*** (D+1) – – –  R2B (X)

Mike McMahon v. Robert Straniere

Total Raised — $1,156,000 v. $123,000

Cash On Hand — $285,000 v. $11,000

CQ Politics – “Democrat Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Democrat”

(Likely Democratic Pickup)

First, I have the district.  In this case it is New York’s 13th distict.  When I talk about “Total Raised” I include self-funding and transfers from state parties/etc.  The numbers I am using are all Pre-General numbers fundraising numbers that just add the first two weeks of October to the big 3Q fundraising rundown SSP did.  Obviously I point out CQ Politics and Cook’s ratings of every race, then I tag my personal rating to the race.  I also divide my rankings with a long line of dashes, to signify a change in rankings.  I appropriately always put the Democrat on the left, and the Republican on the right!

*** = Retired Incumbent

(X) = I expect this race to flip from the holding party

(-) = I expect the current holding party to retain this seat

If you have any questions regarding my ratings, please feel free to ask!  My ratings move from Senate Republicans, to House Republicans, and then House Democrats.  

What I would deem “Upset Picks” in the house are Glenn Nye in VA-02, Michael Montagano in IN-03, and Bob Lord in AZ-03.  

Senate Republicans

1. Virginia*** (X)

Former Governor Mark Warner v. Former Governor Jim Gilmore

Total Raised — $12,891,000 v. $2,026,000

Cash On Hand — $3,642,000 v. $85,000

CQ Politics – “Safe Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Democrat”

(Safe Democratic Pick-up)

2. New Mexico*** (X)

Representative Tom Udall v. Representative Steven Pearce

Total Raised — $6,683,000 v. $4,082,000

Cash On Hand — $935,000 v. $397,000

CQ Politics – “Democrat Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”

(Safe Democratic Pick-up)

3. Colorado*** (X)

Representative Mark Udall v. Former Representative Bob Schaffer

Total Raised — $10,791,000 v. $6,981,000

Cash On Hand —– $470,000 v. $1,518,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”

(Safe Democratic Pick-up)

———————————————————————

4. New Hampshire (X)

Former Governor Jeanne Shaheen v. Incumbent Senator John Sununu

Total Raised — $7,119,000 v. $8,394,000

Cash On Hand – $1,763,000 v. $2,425,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

(Likely Democratic Pick-up)

5. Alaska (X)

Mayor Mark Begich v. Incumbent Senator Ted Stevens

Total Raised — $3,519,000 v. $4,501,000

Cash On Hand — $629,000 v. $833,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”

(Likely Democratic Pickup)

———————————————————————

6. Oregon (X)

State Speaker Jeff Merkley v. Incumbent Senator Gordon Smith

Total Raised — $5,606,000 v. $8,302,000

Cash On Hand – $1,139,000 v. $815,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

(Lean  Democratic Pickup)

7. North Carolina (X)

State Senator Kay Hagan v. Incumbent Senator Liddy Dole

Total Raised — $6,244,000 v. $15,546,000

Cash On Hand — $503,000 v. $2,803,000

CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

(Lean Democratic Pickup)

———————————————————————

8. Minnesota (X)

Al Franken v. Incumbent Senator Norm Coleman

Total Raised — $17,005,000 v. $17,907,000

Cash On Hand —- $182,000 v. $3,996,000

CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

(Toss Up)

9. Kentucky (-)

Bruce Lunsford v. Incumbent Senator Mitch McConnell

Total Raised — $7,700,000 v. $14,065,000

Cash On Hand — $165,000 v. $3,723,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Republican”

(Toss Up)

10. Georgia (RO -)

Jim Martin v. Saxby Chambliss

Total Raised — $3,030,000 v. $7,662,000

Cash On Hand —- $585,000 v. $836,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

(Toss Up)

11. Mississippi-B*** (-)

Former Governor Ronnie Musgrove v. Representative Roger Wicker

Total Raised — $2,204,000 v. $5,479,000

Cash On Hand — $337,000 v. $683,000

CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

(Toss Up)

———————————————————————

12. Maine (-)

Representative Tom Allen v. Incumbent Senator Susan Collins

Total Raised — $5,746,000 v. $7,281,000

Cash On Hand — $987,000 v. $2,101,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

(Likely Republican Retention)

House Republicans

1. New York-13*** (D+1) (X)

Mike McMahon v. Robert Straniere

Total Raised — $1,156,000 v. $123,000

Cash On Hand — $285,000 v. $11,000

CQ Politics – “Democrat Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Democrat”

(Likely Democratic Pickup)

2. New York-25***  (D+3) (X)

Dan Maffei v. Dale Sweetland

Total Raised — $2,016,000 v. $365,000

Cash On Hand — $351,000 v. $116,000

CQ Politics – “Democrat Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Democrat”

(Likely Democratic Pickup)

3. Virginia-11*** (R+1) (X)

Gerry Connolly v. Keith Fimian

Total Raised — $1,782,000 v. $1,762,000

Cash On Hand — $461,000 v. $655,000

CQ Politics – “Democrat Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Democrat”

(Likely Democratic Pickup)

4. Arizona-01*** (R+2) (X)

Ann Kirkpatrick v. Sydney Hay

Total Raised — $1,730,000 v. $433,000

Cash On Hand — $186,000 v. $91,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Democrat”

(Likely Democratic Pickup)

5. Alaska-AL (R+14) (X)

Ethan Berkowitz v. Representative Don Young

Total Raised — $1,369,000 v. $1,278,000  

Cash On Hand —- $71,000 v. $158,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

(Likely Democratic Pickup)  

6. Illinois-11*** (R+1) (X)

Debbie Halvorson v. Martin Ozinga

Total Raised — $2,053,000 v. $1,624,000

Cash On Hand — $237,000 v. $207,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”

(Likely Democratic Pickup)

7. Ohio-16*** (R+4) (X)

John Boccieri v. Kirk Schuring

Total Raised — $1,578,000 v. $1,162,000

Cash On Hand — $281,000 v. $84,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”

(Likely Democratic Pickup)

8. Florida-24 (R+3) (X)

Suzanne Kosmas v. Representative Tom Feeney

Total Raised — $1,712,000 v. $1,990,000

Cash On Hand — $147,000 v. $711,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”

(Likely Democratic Pickup)

9. North Carolina-08 (R+3) (X)

Larry Kissell v. Representative Robert Hayes

Total Raised — $1,106,000 v. $3,295,000

Cash On Hand —- $58,000 v. $752,000

CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

(Likely Democratic Pickup)

10. New Jersey-03*** (D+3) (X)

John Adler v. Chris Myers

Total Raised — $2,610,000 v. $1,145,000

Cash On Hand — $834,000 v. $217,000

CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

(Likely Democratic Pickup)

11. New Mexico-01*** (D+2) (X)

Martin Heinrich v. Darren White

Total Raised — $2,120,000 v. $1,630,000

Cash On Hand — $167,000 v. $515,000

CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”

(Likely Democratic Pickup)

———————————————————————

12. Minnesota-03*** (R+1) (X)

Ashwin Madia v. Erik Paulsen

Total Raised — $2,303,000 v. $2,426,000

Cash On Hand — $598,000 v. $717,000

CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

(Lean Democratic Pickup)

13. Ohio-15*** (R+1) (X)

Mary Jo Kilroy v. Steve Stivers

Total Raised — $2,274,000 v. $1,988,000

Cash On Hand — $448,000 v. $417,000

CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”

(Lean Democratic Pickup)

14. Michigan-07 (R+2) (X)

Mark Schauer v. Representative Tim Walberg

Total Raised — $2,017,000 v. $1,699,000

Cash On Hand — $735,000 v. $412,000

CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

(Lean Democratic Pickup)

15. Colorado-04 (R+9) (X)

Betsy Markey v. Representative Marilyn Musgrave

Total Raised — $2,182,000 v. $2,493,000

Cash On Hand — $225,000 v. $325,000

CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

(Lean Democratic Pickup)

16. Nevada-03 (D+1) (X)

Dina Titus v. Representative Jon Porter

Total Raised — $1,445,000 v. $2,658,000

Cash On Hand —- $64,000 v. $134,000

CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

(Lean Democratic Pickup)

17. Michigan-09 (R+0) (X)

Gary Peters v. Representative Joe Knollenberg

Total Raised — $2,220,000 v. $3,295,000

Cash On Hand — $116,000 v. $1,624,000

CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

(Lean Democratic Pickup)

18. Florida-08 (R+3) (X)

Alan Grayson v. Representative Richard Keller

Total Raised — $2,549,000 v. $1,483,000

Cash On Hand — $425,000 v. $706,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

(Lean Democratic Pickup)

19. New Jersey-07*** (R+1) (X)

Linda Stender v. Leonard Lance

Total Raised — $2,408,000 v. $1,216,000

Cash On Hand — $304,000 v. $275,000

CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

(Lean Democratic Pickup)

20. New Mexico-02*** (R+6) (X)

Harry Teague v. Ed Tinsley  

Total Raised — $3,223,000 v. $2,229,000

Cash On Hand — $401,000 v. $436,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

(Lean Democratic Pickup)

21. Louisiana-04*** (R+7) R2B (X)

Paul Carmouche v. John Fleming

Total Raised — $849,000 v. $1,007,000

Cash On Hand — $59,000 v. $16,000

CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

(Lean Democratic Pickup)

22. New York-29 (R+5) (X)

Eric Massa v. Representative Randy Kuhl

Total Raised — $1,796,000 v. $1,359,000

Cash On Hand — $234,000 v. $209,000

CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

(Lean Democratic Pickup)

23. Minnesota-06 (R+5) (X)

Elwyn Tinklenberg v. Representative Michele Bachmann

Total Raised — $2,411,000 v. $2,509,000

Cash On Hand – $1,591,000 v. $1,171,000

CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

(Lean Democratic Pickup)

24. Pennsylvania-03 (R+2) (X)

Kathleen Dahlkemper v. Representative Phil English

Total Raised — $906,000 v. $2,261,000

Cash On Hand – $161,000 v. $286,000

CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

(Lean Democratic Pickup)

———————————————————————

25. Ohio-01 (R+1) (X)

Steve Driehaus v. Representative Steve Chabot

Total Raised — $1,256,000 v. $2,125,000

Cash On Hand — $216,000 v. $481,000

CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

(Toss Up)

26. Idaho-01 (R+19) (X)

Walt Minnick v. Representative Bill Sali

Total Raised — $2,299,000 v. $1,019,000

Cash On Hand — $226,000 v. $167,000

CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

(Toss Up)

27. Connecticut-04 (D+5) (X)

Jim Himes v. Representative Chris Shays

Total Raised — $3,226,000 v. $3,329,000

Cash On Hand — $282,000 v. $1,180,000

CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

(Toss Up)

28. Florida-21 (R+6) (X)

Raul Martinez v. Representative Lincoln Diaz Balart

Total Raised — $1,767,000 v. $2,069,000

Cash On Hand — $693,000 v. $1,315,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

(Toss Up)

29. Alabama-02*** (R+13) (X)

Bobby Bright v. Jay Love

Total Raised — $893,000 v. $2,032,000

Cash On Hand — $43,000 v. $78,000

CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

(Toss Up)

30. Florida-25 (R+4) (X)

Joe Garcia v. Representative Mario Diaz-Balart

Total Raised — $1,481,000 v. $1,634,000

Cash On Hand — $235,000 v. $810,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

(Toss Up)

31. Illinois-10 (D+4) (X)

Dan Seals v. Representative Mark Kirk

Total Raised — $3,022,000 v. $4,853,000

Cash On Hand — $269,000 v. $885,000

CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

(Toss Up)

32. Washington-08 (D+2) (X)

Darcy Burner v. Representative Dave Reichert

Total Raised — $3,505,000 v. $2,403,000

Cash On Hand — $194,000 v. $585,000

CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

(Toss Up)

33. Arizona-03 (R+6) (X)

Bob Lord v. Representative John Shadegg

Total Raised — $1,510,000 v. $2,231,000

Cash On Hand —- $94,000 v. $529,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Republican”

(Toss Up)

34. Maryland-01*** (R+10) (-)

Frank Kratovil v. Andrew Harris

Total Raised — $1,542,000 v. $2,743,000

Cash On Hand — $174,000 v. $586,000

CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

(Toss Up)

35. Kentucky-02*** (R+13) (-)

David Boswell v. Brett Guthrie

Total Raised — $675,000 v. $1,102,000

Cash On Hand – $138,000 v. $424,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

(Toss Up)

36. Missouri-09*** (R+7) (-)

Judy Baker v. Blaine Luetkemeyer

Total Raised — $1,253,000 v. $1,440,000

Cash On Hand — $100,000 v. $28,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

(Toss Up)

37. California-04*** (R+11) (X)

Charlie Brown v. Thomas McClintock

Total Raised — $2,010,000 v. $2,791,000

Cash On Hand — $225,000 v. $66,000

CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

(Toss Up)

38. Virginia-02 (R+6) (X)

Glenn Nye v. Representative Thelma Drake

Total Raised — $1,004,000 v. $1,890,000

Cash On Hand — $269,000 v. $508,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

(Toss Up)

39. Nebraska-02 (R+9) (-)

James Esch v. Representative Lee Terry

Total Raised — $686,000 v. $1,447,000

Cash On Hand – $111,000 v. $330,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

(Toss Up)

———————————————————————

40. Indiana-03 (R+16) (X)

Michael Montagano v. Representative Mike Souder

Total Raised — $681,000 v. $863,000

Cash On Hand —- $3,000 v. $251,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Republican”

(Lean Republican Retention)

41. Ohio-02 (R+13) (-)

Victoria Wulsin v. Representative Jean Schmidt

Total Raised — $1,637,000 v. $1,125,000

Cash On Hand — $180,000 v. $158,000

CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Republican”

(Lean Republican Retention)

42. Texas-10 (R+13) (-)

Larry Doherty v. Representative Mike McCaul

Total Raised — $1,048,000 v. $1,373,000

Cash On Hand —- $56,000 v. $300,000

CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Republican”

(Lean Republican Retention)

43. Missouri-06 (R+5) (-)

Kay Barnes v. Representative Sam Graves

Total Raised — $2,594,000 v. $2,371,000

Cash On Hand —- $32,000 v. $222,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Republican”

(Lean Republican Retention)

44. New York-26*** (R+3) (-)

Alice Kryzan v. Chris Lee

Total Raised — $713,000 v. $1,522,000

Cash On Hand — $89,000 v. $126,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

(Lean Republican Retention)

45. Texas-07 (R+16) (-)

Michael Skelly v. Representative John Culberson

Total Raised — $2,804,000 v. $1,536,000

Cash On Hand — $610,000 v. $219,000

CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Republican”

(Lean Republican Retention)

46. Wyoming-AL*** (R+19) (-)

Gary Trauner v. Cynthia Lummis

Total Raised — $1,460,000 v. $1,084,000

Cash On Hand — $440,000 v. $124,000

CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Republican”

(Lean Republican Retention)

47. Virginia-05 (R+6) (-)

Tom Perriello v. Representative Virgil Goode

Total Raised — $1,502,000 v. $1,488,000

Cash On Hand — $101,000 v. $697,000

CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Republican”

(Likely Republican Retention)

48. Nevada-02 (R+8) (-)

Jill Derby v. Representative Dean Heller

Total Raised — $913,000 v. $1,538,000

Cash On Hand – $155,000 v. $309,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Republican”

(Lean Republican Retention)

49. West Virginia-02 (R+5) (-)

Anne Barth v. Representative Shelly Capito Moore

Total Raised — $1,099,000 v. $1,985,000

Cash On Hand — $227,000 v. $391,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Republican”

(Likely Republican Retention)

———————————————————————

50. Florida-13 (R+4) (-)

Christine Jennings v. Representative Vernon Buchanan

Total Raised — $1,729,000 v. $4,200,000

Cash On Hand — $218,000 v. $334,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

(Likely Republican Retention)

51. Pennsylvania-15 (D+2) (-)

Siobhan Bennett v. Representative Charlie Dent

Total Raised — $870,000 v. $1,771,000

Cash On Hand — $67,000 v. $489,000

CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

(Likely Republican Retention)

52. Ohio-07*** (R+6) (-)

Sharen Neuhardt v. Steve Austria

Total Raised — $656,000 v. $1,116,000

Cash On Hand — $83,000 v. $271,000

CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

(Likely Republican Retention)

53. Alabama-03 (R+4) (-)

Josh Segall v. Representative Mike Rogers

Total Raised — $870,000 v. $1,306,000

Cash On Hand — $48,000 v. $431,000

CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

(Likely Republican Retention)

54. Virginia-10 (R+5) (-)

Judy Feder v. Representative Frank Wolf

Total Raised — $1,933,000 v. $1,886,000

Cash On Hand — $362,000 v. $993,000

CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

(Likely Republican Retention)

55. New Jersey-05 (R+4) (-)

Dennis Shulman v. Representative Scott Garrett

Total Raised — $994,000 v. $1,348,000

Cash On Hand – $127,000 v. $411,000

CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

(Likely Republican Retention)

56. California-46 (R+6) (-)

Debbie Cook v. Representative Dana Rohrabacher

Total Raised — $332,000 v. $560,000

Cash On Hand — $14,000 v. $423,000

CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

(Likely Republican Retention)

House Democrats

1. Florida-16 (R+2) (X)

Representative Tim Mahoney v. Tom Rooney

Total Raised — $3,128,000 v. $1,274,000

Cash On Hand — $304,000 v. $253,000

CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

(Likely Republican Pickup)

———————————————————————

2. Pennsylvania-11 (D+5) (X)

Representative Paul Kanjorski v. Lou Barletta

Total Raised — $2,274,000 v. $1,068,000

Cash On Hand — $990,000 v. $103,000

CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

(Toss Up)

3. Texas-22 (R+15) (X)

Representative Nick Lampson v. Pete Olson

Total Raised — $2,037,000 v. $2,033,000

Cash On Hand — $897,000 v. $278,000

CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

(Toss Up)

———————————————————————

4. Kansas-02 (R+7) (-)

Representative Nancy Boyda v. Lynn Jenkins

Total Raised — $1,599,000 v. $1,563,000

Cash On Hand — $336,000 v. $362,000

CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”

(Lean Democratic Retention)

5. New Hampshire-01 (R+0) (-)

Representative Carol Shea-Porter v. Jeb Bradley

Total Raised — $1,326,000 v. $1,102,000

Cash On Hand — $172,000 v. $190,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

(Lean Democratic Retention)

6. Louisiana-06 (R+7) (-)

Don Cazayoux v. Bill Cassidy

Total Raised — $2,514,000 v. $932,000

Cash On Hand — $153,000 v. $312,000

CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

(Lean Democratic Retention)

7. Alabama-05*** (R+6) (-)

Parker Griffith v. Wayne Parker

Total Raised — $1,294,000 v. $1,081,000

Cash On Hand —- $65,000 v. $147,000

CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

(Lean Democratic Retention)

8. Wisconsin-08 (R+4) (-)

Representative Steve Kagen v. John Gard

Total Raised — $1,888,000 v. $1,420,000

Cash On Hand — $193,000 v. $487,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”

(Lean Democratic Retention)

9. Pennsylvania-10 (R+8) (-)

Representative Chris Carney v. Chris Hackett

Total Raised — $2,191,000 v. $2,407,000

Cash On Hand — $313,000 v. $281,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”

(Lean Democratic Retention)

10. Kentucky-03 (D+2) (-)

Representative John Yarmuth v. Anne Northup

Total Raised — $2,064,000 v. $1,617,000

Cash On Hand — $435,000 v. $469,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Democrat”

(Lean Democratic Retention)

———————————————————————

11. Georgia-08 (R+8) (-)

Representative Jim Marshall v. Richard Goddard

Total Raised — $1,598,000 v. $1,108,000

Cash On Hand — $835,000 v. $278,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”

(Likely Democratic Retention)

12. Oregon-05*** (D+1) (-)

Kurt Shrader v. Michael Erickson

Total Raised — $1,156,000 v. $2,330,000

Cash On Hand — $126,000 v. $22,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Democrat”

(Likely Democratic Retention)

13. Pennsylvania-04 (R+3) (-)

Representative Jason Altmire v. Melissa Hart

Total Raised — $2,756,000 v. $1,266,000

Cash On Hand — $596,000 v. $656,000

CQ Politics – “Likely Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Democrat”

(Likely Democratic Retention)

14. Mississippi-01 (R+10) (-)

Travis Childers v. Greg Davis

Total Raised — $1,724,000 v. $1,510,000

Cash On Hand — $107,000 v. $173,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Democrat”

(Likely Democratic Retention)

15. Arizona-08 (R+1) (-)

Representative Gabrielle Giffords v. Tim Bee

Total Raised — $3,167,000 v. $1,748,000

Cash On Hand — $949,000 v. $170,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Democrat”

(Likely Democratic Retention)

16. New York-20 (R+3) (-)

Representative Kirsten Gillibrand v. Alexander Treadwell

Total Raised — $4,571,000 v. $6,905,000

Cash On Hand — $886,000 v. $1,326,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Democrat”

(Likely Democratic Retention)

17. California-11 (R+3) (-)

Representative Jerry McNerney v. Dean Andal

Total Raised — $2,886,000 v. $1,289,000

Cash On Hand — $792,000 v. $271,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”

(Likely Democratic Retention)

18. Arizona-05 (R+4) (-)

Representative Harry Mitchell v. David Schweikert

Total Raised — $2,216,000 v. $1,287,000

Cash On Hand — $223,000 v. $116,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Democrat”

(Likely Democratic Retention)

19. Texas-23 (R+4) (-)

Representative Ciro Rodriguez v. Lyle Larson

Total Raised — $1,723,000 v. $734,000

Cash On Hand — $619,000 v. $99,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Democrat”

(Likely Democratic Retention)

20. Illinois-14 (R+5) (-)

Representative Bill Foster v. Jim Oberweis

Total Raised — $4,792,000 v. $4,998,000

Cash On Hand — $275,000 v. $212,000

CQ Politics – “Democrat Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Democrat”

(Likely Democratic Retention)

21. Indiana-09 (R+7) (-)

Representative Baron Hill v. Mike Sodrel

Total Raised — $2,095,000 v. $895,000

Cash On Hand — $480,000 v. $120,000

CQ Politics – “Likely Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Democrat”

(Likely Democratic Retention)

22. Minnesota-01 (R+1) (-)

Representative Tim Walz v. Brian Davis

Total Raised — $2,677,000 v. $1,008,000

Cash On Hand — $730,000 v. $266,000

CQ Politics – “Democrat Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Democrat”

(Likely Democratic Retention)

Current Breakdown

1 Republican President

28D-22R Governors

51D-49R Senators

236D-199R Representatives

Projected Outcome

1 Democratic President

29D-21R Governors

59D-41R Senate

269D-166R Representatives

By what margin will Bob Shamansky win?

View Results

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10 thoughts on “My Finalized Predictions!”

  1. Clearly presented with lots of good info, and good judgements.

    I still think we’ll come out with more like 40 seats. Who? Where? From outer space, I dunno, maybe seats such as FL-18, GA-01, NC-05 and/or NC-10, SC-01 and/or SC-02, IA-04 and/or IA-05, WA-04, OH-03 and/or OH-14, many other possibilities.

    Possible like, we wake up in the morning to find a big lump of molten metal smashed on top of smug and deserving Repub incumbents and we’ll exclaim, “WTF! Where did that come from, outer space?” And whether it’s an asteroid or a melted down trailer house won’t matter.

    Seriously, this is a change election. The people want change, and for very good reason. Yes, in some places they are more determined to get change than in other places. But if and when the votes go looking for change, they can find it, with little-known, under-funded Democrats who have dared to place their names in opposition to the incumbents. We will have some winners on Wednesday morning who we never saw coming, and they will have losers who never knew what hit them.

  2. I sure hope you are right.  I have a net of 25 with 28 flipping from R to D and 3 going the other way (Mahoney, Lampson, and Kanjorski).  This is probably conservative, but I’m trying not to get my hopes too high.

  3. my House predictions are:

    AZ-1

    AL-2

    AK-AL

    CA-4

    CO-4

    CT-4

    FL-21

    FL-16

    FL-24

    IL-10

    IL-11

    MD-1

    MI-7

    MI-9

    MN-3

    MN-6

    MV-3

    NJ-3

    NE-2

    NJ-7

    NY-12

    NY-25

    NY-26

    NM-1

    NM-2

    NC-8

    OH-1

    OH-15

    OH-16

    PA-3

    VA-11

    ID-1

    WA-8

    SC-1

    I also figure think we’ll only lose FL-16 — which would give us a net pick-up of 33 seats

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