NY State Senate: Siena College Releases Final Round of Polls

The Siena College Research Institute has released a final batch of ten New York State Senate polls in the last few days. Here they are:

SD-03 (10/29-11/1, likely voters, 9/11-17 in parens):

Brian Foley (D): 56 (40)

Caesar Trunzo (R-inc): 34 (46)

(MoE: ±4.9)

SD-06 (10/29-11/1, likely voters, no trendlines):

Kristen McElroy (D): 30

Kemp Hannon (R-inc): 56

(MoE: ±4.8)

SD-07 (10/27-29, likely voters, 9/11-17 in parens):

Craig Johnson (D-inc): 50 (49)

Barbara Donno (R): 35 (25)

(MoE: ±4.8)

SD-15 (10/29-11/1, likely voters, 9/11-17 in parens):

Joseph Addabbo Jr. (D): 45 (42)

Serphin Maltese (R-inc): 43 (42)

(MoE: ±4.9)

SD-37: (10/27-29, likely voters, 9/30-10/05 in parens):

Suzi Oppenheimer (D-inc): 64 (61)

Liz Feld (R): 29 (24)

(MoE: ±4.8)

SD-48 (10/29-11/1, likely voters, 9/11-17 in parens):

Darrel Aubertine (D-inc): 49 (51)

David Renzi (R): 38 (31)

(MoE: ±4.6)

SD-56 (10/27-29, likely voters, 9/11-17 in parens):

Richard Dollinger (D): 39 (38)

Joe Robach (R-inc): 52 (49)

(MoE: ±4.6)

SD-58 (10/29-11/1, likely voters, 9/30-10/05 in parens):

William Stachowski (D-inc): 47 (36)

Dennis Delano (R): 43 (49)

(MoE: ±4.9)

SD-59 (10/27-29, likely voters, 9/30-10/5 in parens):

Kathy Konst (D): 39 (33)

Dale Volker (R-inc): 50 (50)

(MoE: ±4.9)

SD-61 (10/29-11/1, likely voters, 9/11-17 in parens):

Joseph Mesi (D): 42 (40)

Michael Ranzenhofer (R): 47 (38)

(MoE: ±4.9)

UPDATE by Crisitunity: If these predictions hold, this would see the Democrats picking up the New York State Senate by the barest majority, by gaining two seats (right now it’s 31-29 for the Republicans, with 2 vacancies which are split between the two parties and likely to remain that way). They would pick up the GOP seats of Caesar Trunzo in SD-03 in Long Island’s Suffolk County (who led Brian Foley by a decent margin in the last poll) and Serphin Maltese in SD-15 in Queens (who was tied with Joe Addabbo in the previous poll).

Much of rest of the action is in the Buffalo area: there’s at least one other possible pickup, SD-61, a Republican-held open seat where Joe Mesi led Michael Ranzenhofer previously but now trails by 5. Kathy Konst has made up a lot of ground in SD-59, but is still down by 11. The one seat where the Dems are engaged in a difficult defense is SD-58, where Dem incumbent William Stachowski was down by 13 against suspended Buffalo PD detective Dennis Delano, but now leads by 4. As you can see, there’s a lot of volatility, not just because we’re dealing with small sample sizes, but also the difficulty in general in polling state legislature races. But it looks like, after decades of futility, the Dems are in position to take over the New York state senate.