PPP (10/31-11/2, likely voters, 10/25-26 in parens):
Bev Perdue (D): 49 (47)
Pat McCrory (R): 48 (44)
Michael Munger (L): 2 (5)
(MoE: ±2.1%)
The same North Carolina PPP sample that showed Kay Hagan administering the coup de grace to Elizabeth Dole (and a neck-and-neck race in the NC presidential race) also includes the governor’s race and the rest of the Council of State. Perdue has led in most polls for the last few weeks, but this final poll sees a closer margin as undecideds finally commit; both candidates’ numbers have gone up, but McCrory has gained faster (seemingly helped along by a plunge in Libertarian Michael Munger’s support). With the Washington governor’s race close but seemingly frozen in place, this will be the gubernatorial race to watch tomorrow.
Five Council of State races are also polled; it’s a mixed bag, although with a possible pickup at Auditor:
Lt. Governor: Walter Dalton (D) 49, Robert Pittenger (R) 41
Insurance Comm.: Wayne Goodwin (D) 47, John Odom (R) 41
Auditor: Beth Wood (D) 48, Leslie Merritt (R-inc) 46
Agriculture Comm.: Steve Troxler (R-inc) 51, Ronnie Ansley (D) 43
Labor Comm.: Cherie Berry (R-inc) 51, Mary Fant Donnan (D) 44
from early voting. This thing is going down to the wire. Unfortunately, the Election Day forecast is for rain, especially in the eastern part of NC – Perdue’s base area. Lets just hope the Obama voters who did not vote early will turn out rain or shine – Bev needs Obama’s coattails in the worst way.
The support for the third party candidates in both the NC Governor and the NC Senator race seems to be fading fast.
Troxler by all accounts has done a decent job – I voted for him. He succeeded a Democrat who left office under a cloud of scandal – Troxler seems to have cleaned up the office.
Berry has put her picture on all the elevator inspection cards in the state, which gives her the effect of nonstop campaign mini-posters. She may be the best known name in the Council of State due to those cards. Probably a smart move by her – I don’t think she’s been that great a Labor Commissioner – Donnan would be better.
Beth Wood may well be helped by the fact that North Carolinians love to vote for women. I also think she’s the superior candidate.
Note there are some other Council of State offices not included in this round of polling. Democrats will sweep them, especially our extremely popular Superintendent of Public Instruction June Atkinson, Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (who has ads all over mydd.com and 538.com!), and Attorney General Roy Cooper – my pick to take down Senator Richard Burr in 2010!