(Bumped – promoted by DavidNYC)
Campaigns, as we all know, start earlier and earlier every cycle. But I thought it might be helpful to take a look back at when some of last year’s Senate challengers formally filed statements of candidacy with the FEC, as something of a benchmark for what we might expect this year:
| Candidate | Party | State | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bob Corker | R | TN | 10/14/2004 |
| Matt Brown | D | RI | 2/16/2005 |
| Mark Kennedy | R | MN | 2/22/2005 |
| Amy Klobuchar | D | MN | 3/1/2005 |
| Bob Casey | D | PA | 3/11/2005 |
| Patty Wetterling | D | MN | 3/14/2005 |
| Tom Kean, Jr. | R | NJ | 3/15/2005 |
| Kweisi Mfume | D | MD | 3/17/2005 |
| Sheldon Whitehouse | D | RI | 3/31/2005 |
| John Morrison | D | MT | 4/16/2005 |
| Bernie Sanders | I | VT | 5/2/2005 |
| Ben Cardin | D | MD | 5/6/2005 |
| Harold Ford | D | TN | 5/25/2005 |
| Jon Tester | D | MT | 5/27/2005 |
| Katherine Harris | R | FL | 6/20/2005 |
| Michael Steele | R | MD | 6/24/2005 |
| Richard Tarrant | R | VT | 7/6/2005 |
| Mike McGavick | R | WA | 7/26/2005 |
| Pete Ricketts | R | NE | 8/15/2005 |
| Jim Pederson | D | AZ | 9/2/2005 |
| Claire McCaskill | D | MO | 9/13/2005 |
| Paul Hackett | D | OH | 10/11/2005 |
| Mike Bouchard | R | MI | 10/15/2005 |
| Sherrod Brown | D | OH | 10/18/2005 |
| Jack Carter | D | NV | 11/1/2005 |
| Harris Miller | D | VA | 1/9/2006 |
| Jim Webb | D | VA | 2/9/2006 |
| Ned Lamont | D | CT | 2/10/2006 |
So this table tells me two things. First, that running for Senate is an incredibly hard two-year slog for most people. Alright, we already knew that, but seeing all these dates puts this fact into stark relief. This business ain’t for the weak of heart – or body.
Second, this also tells me that if this cycle is anything like the last one, we may have to wait almost a year to see the field get hammered down. However, given general trends, plus the presidential race (with its super-early primaries) sucking up so much oxygen, I’d expect to see most serious candidates filings take place well before February 2007. I don’t think we’ll have too many – if any – Lamonts or Webbs this time. I wouldn’t be surprised if just about every contender files by Labor Day of this year.
Bottom line: We’ve still got plenty of waiting left to do on the Senate recruitment front, but probably not as much as last time. And you can be sure Chuck Schumer isn’t wasting even a moment. Neither, of course, are we.
(One small caveat about this list: As I say, it reflects candidate filing dates with the FEC. Actual announcements – ie, the kind with all the hoopla and press coverage – might have taken place at different times than listed in this chart. But in most cases, they should probably be pretty close.)
I’ve been thinking about this in respect to my own corner of the world – NH-Sen, and how, on the one hand, we’ve had so much speculation about candidates who have declined (Lynch, Hirshberg, Gottesman), and on the other, candidates who have either filed or exploring (Marchand, Swett, Buckey). All of this happened very early, with Marchand being the earliest, if I recall correctly.
Here we are in March of 2007 and the big news for challengers right now is “who will win the Q1 money expectations game?” in a few days.
My sense is that the field is setting already, and that those who get on board even just a month or three later (unless they are self-funding or extraordinarily name-rec’d) are not going to be able to compete.
Combine that with the insane acceleration of the presidential primaries, and you pretty much have permanent campaign mode going on here in NH.
Everyone (with the exception of Bruning, who filed exploratory papers with the FEC on 3/15) is waiting on Hagel’s decision before they jump in. The Democratic candidate can afford to wait a little longer, simply because it’s unlikely that we’ll see a contested primary. But I imagine the movement will be fast and furious as soon as Hagel makes his final decision.
I kind of wish that Shaheen would jump in just because of the money apsect. Sununu will have fundraisers with every GOP candidate and will be extremely well-funded while our candidate won’t have that advantage.
I think from our side, a lot depends on recruitment and retirement. Everyone thinks we’ll give Gordon Smith a race but we’ve yet to have anyone step up, then you’ve got Virginia New Mexico and Mississippi where we could win depending on retirement.