1974 Election – 52 Republican Seats GONE

In analyzing close races and a surge in Democratic registrations I’ve concluded that Democrats should pick up 52 seats tomorrow.  This is a repeat of the 1974 election in which Democrats picked up 48 seats.  These are the 52 seats I see switching over to Democrats.  Of these, two contests are so difficult to predict that the incumbents may actually survive (Shays and Reichert).  However, the rest are most likely headed for defeat.  States to watch on election night are FL, MI, NJ, NY, OH, PA, and VA.  Coincidentally, these are all in the Northeast (with the exception of Florida).  As the Republican Party turns more to the right the Northeast and Midwest are moving closer to the Democrats.  However, the down side is that the Northeast and Midwest are parts of the country expected to lose seats come 2012 (IA, MA, NY, OH, and PA).

As for state legislatures the battlegrounds are AZ, CO, IN, IA, ME, MI, MT, OH, OK, NY, PA, TN, and TX.  

The most intense battlegrounds are AZ, ME, MI, NY, OK, PA, and TX.

Democrats will pick up the following 52 seats:

AL 2 – Open Seat (Everett)

AL 5 – Open Seat (Cramer)

AK AL – Young

AZ 1 – Open Seat (Renzi)

AZ 3 – Shadegg

CA 3 – Lungren

CA 4 – Open Seat (Doolittle)

CO 4 – Musgrave

CT 4 – Shays

FL 8 – Keller

FL 21 – Lincoln Diaz-Balart

FL 24 – Feeney

FL 25 – Mario Diaz-Balart

ID 1 – Sali

IL 10 – Kirk

IL 11 – Open Seat (Weller)

IN 3 – Souder

KY 2 – Open Seat (Lewis)

MD 1 – Open Seat (Gilchrest)

MD 6 – Bartlett

MI 7 – Walberg

MI 8 – Rogers

MI 9 – Knollenberg

MN 3 – Open Seat (Ramstad)

MN 6 – Bachmann

NE 2 – Terry

NV 2 – Heller

NV 3 – Porter

NJ 3 – Open Seat (Saxton)

NJ 5 – Garrett

NJ 7 – Open Seat (Ferguson)

NM 1 – Open Seat (Wilson)

NM 2 – Open Seat (Pearce)

NY 13 – Open Seat (Fossella)

NY 25 – Open Seat (Walsh)

NY 26 – Open Seat (Reynolds)

NY 29 – Kuhl

NC 8 – Hayes

OH 1 – Chabot

OH 2- Schmidt

OH 15 – Open Seat (Pryce)

OH 16 – Open Seat (Regula)

PA 3 – English

PA 6 – Gerlach

PA 15 – Dent

SC 1 – Brown

TX 10 – McCaul

VA 2 – Drake

VA 5 – Goode

VA 11 – Open Seat (Davis)

WA 8 – Reichert

WV 2 – Capito