Republican Seats Falling w/Analysis

2nd – Open Seat (R)

A very strong Republican district has prospects for Democrats.  Montgomery mayor Bobby Bright is battling it out with State Senator Jay Love.  A recent endorsement by State Senator Harri Anne Smith should certainly provide an advantage for Bright.  Smith represents the Wiregrass (Dothan) region, an area which will ultimately decide the victor here.  The Montgomery area vote should be evenly split between Bright and Love, with Bright taking Lowndes and Montgomery counties and Love taking Autauga and Elmore.  The decisive area of the district will be the five counties (Coffee, Dale, Geneva, Henry, and Houston) surrounding Dothan.  This area includes Fort Rucker, a military vote which normally favors Republicans.  African-Americans compose 27% of the electorate districtwide.  Two additional counties which should favor Bright are Bullock and Conecuh.  The tone of the race has been very much like the primary, negative and divisive.  A large number of Smith supporters will most likely move toward Bright as a result.  Independents should also favor Bright over Love.  This is a race which should be close, yet in the end Bright will narrowly prevail.

Outlook: Bright defeats Love (Dem Gain)

AL – Young (R)

Scandal plagued Don Young has been attacked vigorously by both the DCCC and independent groups, whom in total have spent more than $1 million in expenditures against Young.  The NRCC has simply forfeited the race in this strong Republican state.  A contested primary and attacks by Republican-leaning Club for Growth during the summer only exposed Young’s weakness and destroyed his reputation to the point of no return.  Unlike the primary, where weeks passed prior to the victor being declared, State Representative Ethan Berkowitz should be called the winner early on.  

Outlook: Berkowitz defeats Young (Dem Gain)  

1st – Open Seat (R)

A recruitment failure on the part of Republicans has left this seat more favorable to Democrats.  Former State Representative Ann Kirkpatrick has legislative experience and remains popular from her time in the legislature.  Republican Sydney Hay is far too extreme for the district and would have an uphill climb winning over moderate independents.

Outlook: Kirkpatrick defeats Hay (Dem Gain)

Arizona 3 – Shadegg (R)

Months earlier very few would expect to find Shadegg in the fight for his life.  In fact, he may have been better off retiring, as originally anticipated, then seeking another term.  Shadegg faces a strong Democratic challenger and massive spending against him by the DCCC.  Democrats have less anxities regarding two freshman members and have easily secured another open seat, thereby making Shadegg a prime target for defeat.  The district is 43% Republican, which would indeed seem to favor Shadegg.  However, he has never faced a fight like the one he is being presented with and like Hayworth, who also represented a strong neighboring Republican district, Shadegg has started to show the mistakes of an incumbent in peril.  Shadegg raised a red flag when he begun to undertake negative ads against Lord, clearly a sign of desperation and further an attempt to avoid discussing economic issues.  Lord, in contrast, discusses economic issues and seeks to tie Shadegg in with supporting less regulation.  Democrat Bob Lord must perform very strong in the southwestern precincts of the district, territory favorable to Democrats.  He must also cut into Shadegg’s base in the eastern and northern parts of the district, a difficult task, yet one which is very doable.

Outlook: Lord defeats Shadegg (Dem Gain)  

3rd – Lungren (R)

The Republican advantage in the district has shrunk dramatically and Dan Lungren could end up being thrown out as a result.  Currently, Republicans have less than a 10,000 voter margin over Democrats.  Physician Bill Durston hopes that he can make a surprise upset on election night and the economy may actually help him do just that.  The major issue here is home foreclosures and unemployment.  Sacramento County is experiencing some of the highest foreclosures nationwide.  The unemployment rate districtwide is at 8.5%.  Alpine County has an unemployment rate over 10% and Calaveras County is 9%.  Durston has raised more in the Sacramento area than Lungren and more in individual contributions.  The DCCC is spending heavily in CA-4 and also in NV-2, both of which border on this district.  Those expenditures and ethical questions raised regarding Lungren should have some impact here.  An ABC News story featuring Lungren on an expense paid vacation covered by lobbyists did not go over well in the district.  Obama coattails will also provide strong assistance to Durston.  Lungren has displayed arrogance and appeared overly confident in recent weeks and believes that Durston presents no serious threat.  A Libertarian candidate ensures that votes will be siphoned from Lungren as well.  Whomever carries Sacramento County will win the district and Durston has been hitting the ground there strong.

Outlook: Durston defeats Lungren (Dem Gain)

4th – Open Seat (R)

Corrupt and tained politician John Doolittle has decided to retire, leaving corrupt and tainted politician State Senator Tom McClintock as his replacement.  Democrat Charlie Brown is back and hopes to upset the radical social conservative.  McClintock, hails from Ventura County in Southern California, and Brown hails from the district.  McClintock’s fundraising is also coming mostly from Southern California while Brown is raising from mostly within the district.  During the primary the Club for Growth spent heavily for McClintock, yet the same is not true during this election.  Brown has received expenditures from the DCCC and has hit the airwaves much stronger than McClintock in the final month.  A Libertarian candidate should take votes from McClintock.  While the district is Republican leaning it faces the same economic troubles as the 3rd and 11th districts.  Unemployment in Lassen, Modoc, and Sierra counties is over 8%.  Home foreclosures have also risen.  Brown must perform strong in the counties which provide the most votes, this includes El Dorado, Nevada, and Placer.  If Brown wins Placer County then there is no chance in sight for McClintock to win.  Even though Republican in nature, the electorate is most likely to judge their economic situation against the social conservative platform which McClintock offers.

Outlook: Brown defeats McClintock (Dem Gain)  

4th – Musgrave (R)

Social conservative Marilyn Musgrave has always struggled to win re-election in this strong Republican district.  Republicans compose 38% of the total registration here, yet independents are also strong at 34%.  Musgrave will have a hard time winning over independents this year just as she had in past elections.  Democrat Betsy Markey must take more than 50% of the vote in Boulder and Larimer counties.  For her part, Musgrave cannot afford to lose Weld County.  If she does then the race will be called at once.  Musgrave has already been dumped by Republicans, in large part due to the expensive media market present here and overwhelming expenditures by outside groups against her.  The years of Musgrave and her hate agenda appear to have expired.

Outlook: Markey defeats Musgrave (Dem Gain)

4th – Chris Shays (R)

The last remaining House Republican in New England is fighting an uphill battle against a virtual unknown.  Democrat Jim Himes has been raising funds at an equal pace with Shays.  He has also been receiving massive support from the DCCC, while the National Assoc. of Realtors has been spending heavily on Shays part.  The NRCC hasn’t dropped a cent on Shays behalf.  The district is Democratic leaning, yet Shays has managed to survive close election.  However, this is one election which Shays is unlikely to survive.  Recent polls show softening support for Shays in the millionaire towns (Darien, New Canaan, and Ridgefield).  These towns have been hit hard by the financial crisis.  Darien, where a quarter of the population works in the financial sector, was recently rated the top place in the US to feel the effects of the financial crisis.  The three major cities (Bridgeport, Norwalk, and Stamford) should favor Himes.  The two remaining cities to look out for on election night are Fairfield and Greenwich, both have historically favored Shays.  A challenge Shays has is Bridgeport, which is the most Democratic city in the district.  Shays would need to perfrom strong in Stamford, which has both the district and state’s highest voter turnout each year.  Currently it appears unlikely that Shays could accomplish such and therefore this is the year in which Shays is headed for the door.

Outlook: Himes defeats Shays (Dem Gain)

8th – Keller (R)

Most observers had seen Keller’s demise coming for some time, especially with his poor 2006 performance.  An even more lackluster performance in the primary against a poorly funded challenger only confirmed what many had hoped and expected: Keller’s time is up.  The Republican advantage of the district has evaporated and now it holds a Democratic advantage.  Keller’s base (Lake County) showed weak support for him during the primary.  Marion County is evenly split between both parties, yet Orange County, where the bulk of voters are located, easily favors Democrats this round.  Expect a major demographic shift here as women, senior citizens, Hispanics, and independents all vote in unison against Keller.

Outlook: Grayson defeats Keller (Dem Gain)

Florida 21 – Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R)

The South Florida based district is 36% Democrat and 39% Republican, yet a majority of the Republicans are Cuban.  Both Diaz-Balart and former Hialeah mayor Raul Martinez are Cuban.  Martinez is popular in Hialeah, the major center of the district.  Diaz-Balart has received some criticism for supporting a limit on remittances to Cuba, strongly oppossed by many in the district.  He has also sought to damage Martinez by bringing up a criminal prosecution which resulted in Martinez’s conviction being overturned on appeal.  The lead US Attorney was the husband of Ileana Ros-Lehtninen and many viewed the prosecution as politically motivated.  Diaz-Balart has recently found himself under scrutiny after an indicted Puerto Rican senator stated that he gave Diaz-Balart a suitcase full of cash.  Not to be outdone, Diaz-Balart has gone too extreme: attacking the children of Martinez.  It’s easy to see that Democrats, independents, and young Cubans should overwhelmingly vote for Martinez.  

Outlook: Martinez defeats Diaz-Balart (Dem Gain)

Florida 24 – Feeney (R)

Tainted in scandal even prior to arriving in Washington has left Tom Feeney feeling less powerful.  He’s shown arrogance against his opponents in past races and now is destined for defeat.  Suzanne Kosmas hails from Volusia County, which should overwhelmingly support her.  The counties of Brevard and Orange should also support her.  However, Republican leaning Seminole County may finally do something which it has not done in the past: dump Feeney.  If Kosmas is ahead in Seminole County, then Feeney can retire for the night.  Defeat for Feeney is all but certain, yet by what margin remains the unknown.

Outlook: Kosmas defeats Feeney (Dem Gain)

Florida 25 – Mario Diaz-Balart (R)

Many would never have expected to find Mario Diaz-Balart in the fight for survival, yet the Miami-Dade portion of the district narrowly favors Democrats.  In fact, 87% of all votes cast will come from Miami-Dade County.  Diaz-Balart is expected to take most of the votes in Republican leaning Collier County.  Diaz-Balart has sought to link Democrat Joe Garcia with Ken Lay, yet it is unlikely that voters will buy the linkage.  For his part, Diaz-Balart has turned negative and is running a contentious battle with Garcia.  In the end the economy, high foreclosures, and unemployment will prevail over Ken Lay.  Therefore, Diaz-Balart is not in a comfortable position.  Expect this race to be very close in the end, yet Diaz-Balart is likely to fall in the GOP wave.

Outlook: Garcia defeats Diaz-Balart (Dem Gain)

1st – Sali (R)

Controversial social conservative Bill Sali is in an uphill battle and doesn’t even know it.  Sali has angered many within the Republican establishment back home and has made headlines for all the wrong reasons.  Democrat Walt Minnick is well funded and has raised more within the district than Sali.  Minnick is running on economic issues while Sali continues to run on social issues.  The Indian Reservations of Latah, Nez Perce, and Shoshone counties should go overwhelmingly for Minnick.  Kootenai (Couer d’Alene) and Washington counties should favor Sali.  The decisive counties are Ada and Canyon.  If Sali performs under 50% in either then he’s gone.  With the likelihood of women and independents leaving his column this year it’s fair to say that Sali is headed out the door.  This is one defeat which Democrats and Republicans alike will be celebrating.

Outlook: Minnick defeats Sali (Dem Gain)

10th – Kirk (R)

One of the few dozen moderates remaining in the House finds himself in trouble.  Mark Kirk represents a Democratic leaning district north of Chicago which is certain to feel the economic pinch of the financial collapse.  Democrat Dan Seals is relying on huge turnout and Obama coattails to finally defeat Kirk.  Seals has also been running a far more agressive campaign linking Kirk to Bush at every turn.  If Seals is to win here he needs to carry Lake County.  Even though Kirk has moderate to liberal social views it is the current economic conditions which will ultimately prove to be his undoing.

Outlook: Seals defeats Kirk (Dem Gain)

11th – Open Seat (R)

The quicker Election Day arrives the more safe Democrats will feel.  Republicans recruited businessman Martin Ozinga to challenge State Senator Debbie Halvorson.  Republicans have sought to link her to Blagojevich administration at every turn, yet the Republican candidate himself has proven to be less than motivational.  Halvorson should carry Will County which provides 46% of the overall vote.  As long as she wins here then winning the district becomes a much easier feat.  

Outlook: Halvorson defeats Ozinga (Dem Gain)

3rd – Mark Souder (R)

The district is strong Republican territory, yet Mark Souder has failed to secure his seat.  Unemployment in Elkhart County is considered one of the nation’s highest.  Fort Wayne, the major city in the district, also has an unemployment rate exceeding the national average.  Democrat Mike Montagano is young and carries no baggage, making Souder’s task a little more difficult.  Two difficulties for Souder is the likelihood is that he will not carry Allen County (Fort Wayne).  He also has a Libertarian currently expected to take 2-3% of the overall vote.  Both parties are currently spending for the seat, yet Democrats seem more committed.  Souder’s re-election is unlikely.

Outlook: Montagano defeats Souder (Dem Gain)

2nd – Open Seat (R)

The only competitive seat in the state features State Senator David Boswell against State Senator Brett Guthrie.  The strong area for Boswell will be Owensboro and the small areas of Jefferson County which are included in the district.  Strong Republican areas are near Fort Knox.  The decisive counties in this race will be in the Bowling Green and Glasgow area.  These counties include Barren, Edmonson, Grayson, Green, Hart, Taylor, and Warren.  Initially Boswell started off slow, lacking funds and an organized campaign.  When the Democratic Party stepped in fundraising started to flow and Boswell’s campaign gained momentum.  Both candidates are running two separate campaigns.  Boswell is running on economics and fiscal conservatism.  In contrast Guthrie is running as a social conservative and spending time addressing attacks coming from Boswell.  The Blue Dog Democrat has the edge over the social conservative here.

Outlook: Boswell defeats Guthrie (Dem Gain)

1st – Open Seat (R)

Since being defeated in the Republican primary Wayne Gilchrest has been advocating support for Frank Kratovil, the Democrat.  Ultra conservative Andrew Harris has been receiving massive support from the Club for Growth, yet demographics here show that the Club for Growth ads may actually backfire.  The district is evenly split between Democrats and Republicans, leaving independents as the decisive voice here.  Harris is branding Kratovil as a “liberal” in almost every ad, a tactic which was successful against Gilchrest during the primary.  However, the tactic will be less successful in the general election where issues trump partisanship.  Harri’s attacks ads only do two things: it reminds people that Harris is too conservative and it alienates moderates, a perfect recipe for disaster.  Kratovil hails from the Eastern Shore and Harris from the Baltimore suburbs.  Harris should perform strong in Anne Arundel and Harford counties, yet Kratovil should easily take the remaining counties, including the sliver of Baltimore County which is included in the district.  The strongest counties for Kratovil will be Dorchester, Somerset, Wicomico, and Worcester.  Therefore, the decisive counties should be Caroline, Cecil, Kent, Queen Anne’s, and Talbot.  These five counties are all located on the Eastern Shore and will most likely favor a fellow Eastern Shorer over a Baltimore suburbanite, especially a conservative one at that.  

Outlook: Kratovil defeats Harris (Dem Gain)

6th – Bartlett (R)

A sleeper race in the making is the best way to describe Roscoe Bartlett’s seat.  Even at a time when Americans are calling for more regulation Bartlett is calling for less.  Since making this same statement at a debate with former Frederick mayor Jennifer Dougherty a steady decline has been forming in Bartlett’s camp.  The decline has only continued after Bartlett told a group of senior citizens that he lived through the Great Depression and it wasn’t that bad.  Dougherty has also seen an increase in fundraising, whereas Bartlett is not even taking the election seriously.  Much of Dougherty’s campaign infusion has come from Maryland Democrats who clearly sense an opening here.  The district is conservative, according to Maryland’s standards, yet at a time of economic turmoil constituents may view Bartlett as part of the problem and not worthy of proposing workable solutions.  A Libertarian candidate will also help take votes from Bartlett.  A surprise upset on election night is awaiting us.

Outlook: Dougherty defeats Bartlett (Dem Gain)

7th – Walberg (R)

The most expensive spending by outside groups for any congressional race is occurring here.  Democrats realize that Tim Walberg’s election was a mistake, yet a seat which they overlooked and didn’t realize until it was too late.  Walberg is facing a strong challenge from State Senator Mark Schauer.  The Club for Growth is spending heavily on Walberg’s behalf while the DCCC and labor unions are spending on behalf of Schauer.  Interestingly, the strongest Democratic counties (Calhoun, Easton, and Washtenaw) here have the lowest unemployment rates.  In contrast, some of the states highest unemployment rates are in Republican counties (Branch, Jackson, Hillsdale, and Lenawee).  Walberg’s conservative votes, including those against extending benefits for the unemployed, will certainly hurt him with Republican moderates and independents.  Schauer has outperformed Walberg in fundraising, including in every metro area that comprises the district.  In fact, 26% of the total funds from Walberg have come from out of state.  Walberg, even with help from his friends at the Club for Growth, simply has no chance of winning here.

Outlook: Schauer defeats Walberg (Dem Gain)

8th – Rogers (R)

Being wedged between two competitive races with DCCC attacks overflowing into your district does not benefit anyone, especially Mike Rogers.  While Rogers district is experiencing a higher rate of unemployment than the national average it is not as severe here as elsewhere statewide.  However, Shiawassee County is the exception.  Unemployment in Shiawassee County is 10%.  Rogers must carry 65% or more of the vote in Shiawassee, Oakland, and Clinton counties.  Ingham County, home to Lansing, will most certainly favor Democrat Bob Alexander.  Livingston County, a Republican stronghold, must deliver 70% or more of the vote in Rogers favor.  Two Libertain candidates are guaranteed to take votes from Rogers in a race that will be closer than anyone has anticipated.  African-Americans are centered in Ingham County and only compose roughly 10% of the electorate.  However, union workers are a strong force within the district and recent news from major employers within the district certainly spell trouble.  Massive layoffs in auto manufacturing and possible layoffs at Pepsico should indeed have Rogers worried.  Rogers also lost the endorsement of the Lansing State Journal which called him too conservative and in lock step with the failed Bush policies, a statement supported by the far conservative Livingston Daily, which endorsed Rogers, but not with glowing reviews.  Even though Alexander has not raised a sizeable campaign war chest he has raised more within the district than Rogers.  Rogers has also been heavily dependent on PAC money, a sign of a weakened incumbent.  Obama coattails in Ingham and Oakland counties should take Alexander over the finish line in a surprise upset of the night.

Outlook: Alexander defeats Rogers (Dem Gain)

9th – Knollenberg (R)

As Oakland County has turned more Democratic the seat of Joe Knollenberg has become more threatened.  A strong asset for Knollenberg has been fundraising, an advantage he enjoys over Democrat Gary Peters, including receiving more within the district than Peters.  However, the DCCC and labor unions have offset the shortage for the most part.  The National Assoc. of Realtors have also spent on behalf of Knollenberg.  Unemployment in Oakland County is slightly above the national average, yet talk of job losses, including in auto manufacturing could only hurt the chances of Knollenberg being re-elected.  Unlike Walberg, who has taken a strong conservative stance on labor unions, Knollenberg has been more embracing.  However, Jack Kevorkian and a Libertarian candidate are taking votes from Knollenberg.  Home foreclosures in Oakland County have only been increasing and there are no evident signs of dissipating.  Strong Democratic areas are Farmington Hills, Pontiac, and Royalk Oak.  Peters must perform strong in all three cities.  Knollenberg cannot afford to perform under 55% in Troy or else the race is over.  Oakland County should have heavy turnout favorable to Obama making the re-election of Knollenberg less certain.

Outlook: Peters defeats Knollenberg (Dem Gain)

3rd – Open Seat (R)

Both parties are battling to win over this seat.  Democrat Ashwin Madia is challenging State Representative Erik Paulsen.  Paulsen is running as a moderate, even though he is a conservative.  In fact, Paulsen is not even running as a Republican, failing to mention the word Republican in his campaign literature or on his website.  The district is an interesting mix of wealthy areas and working class neighborhoods.  Bloomington, Brooklyn Park, and Minnetonka are strong Democratic cities.  Eden Prairie, Maple Grove, and Plymouth are strong Republican cities.  The eventual winner will be whomever carries two important cities.  Edina, wedged between the city of Minneapolis and Eden Prairie, currently favors Democrats, yet narrowly.  Coon Rapids, located directly across from Brooklyn Park, currently favors Republicans, yet narrowly as well.  This race is one of the hardest to speculate on for various reasons, Madia is a political novice and Paulsen is an experienced legislator with a conservative record masquerading as a moderate.  Like with Bachmann and Walberg in 2006, independents may be fooled into believing that Paulsen is indeed a moderate.  This race is very much reminiscent of the Duckworth vs. Roskam race in Illinois, pitching an Iraqi War veteran against a state legislator, culminating with the state legislator prevailing.  Paulsen has run a smart race, avoiding the social conservative ideology and even promoting bi-lingual education, a rarity for a conservative Republican.  Madia must have huge turnout from the Democratic cities and carry Edina and Coon Rapids, without this model it is hard to see Madia prevailing.  This race will be very close in the end, yet I give the narrowest of narrow margins to Madia.

Outlook: Madia defeats Paulsen (Dem Gain)

6th – Bachmann (R)

Every election cycle there is at least one incumbent who finds their poll numbers drop due to divisive or offensive rhetoric.  Bachmann is one of those incumbents, yet not alone by any means.  Recent comments by Murtha (PA) and Bartlett (MD) have made both races more competitive.  The re-election for Kanjorski (PA) would have been much safer had he simply avoided the media spotlight.  Even prior to her comments there was no doubt that Bachmann was going to have a competitive challenge from Democrat Elwyn Tinklenberg.  Unlike 2006, Bachmann is running against a moderate and not a liberal Democrat.  She also does not have the Bush-Cheney fundraising to assist her.  Following her remarks fellow Republican Aubrey Immelman stepped back into the race as a write-in candidate.  Bachmann should carry Wright County and Tinklenberg should take Washington County, yet it is Anoka and Stearns counties which will ultimately decide which candidate prevails.  Based on Bachmann alienating moderates and independents with her conservative agenda it is highly likely that Tinklenberg will carry both of these vital counties.  The spokeswoman for Big Oil will be banished to ANWR when the night is over.

Outlook: Tinklenberg defeats Bachmann (Dem Gain)

2nd – Terry (R)

One of the most ineffective and unknown members of Congress is Lee Terry.  He is a strong advocate against earmarks, even when they benefit his own district.  Without representation in the Senate, Omaha would essentially be a wasteland, receiving no federal assistance.  Democrat Jim Esch is challenging Terry in a rematch from 2006.  The closeness of the race caught many observers by surprise, yet it should not have, since it’s only a matter of time before constituents realize that their representation is ineffective.  Democrats, including Esch, are relying on huge turnout from North Omaha, an African-American neighborhood, to deliver the decisive victory they need.  Douglas County is essential for Esch since whomever wins here is almost certain to win the district.  A Libertarian candidate on the ballot could only hurt Terry, especially in a race which is expected to be decisively close.  One noticeable characteristic which may hurt Terry is that he speaks with a monotone voice, which makes him appear less convincing and lacking enthusiasm.  Terry has undergone a dramatic election year conversion: running as a moderate and even linking himself with Obama in some instances.  However, a ten year record and a 90% rating from the American Conservative Union will debunk this conversion.  Esch has some weaknesses too.  He appears young and inexperienced in his ads and the campaign appears less organized when compared to other candidates challenging incumbents.  Social security has become one of the dominant issues in the race, a noticeable appeal to seniors.  If Esch carries the youth, African-American, female, and senior vote, then Terry’s days in Washington are over.

Outlook: Esch defeats Terry (Dem Gain)

2nd – Heller (R)

In 2006 conservatives were concerned that Dean Heller would be too moderate, yet those fears have been calmed.  In fact, Heller is ranked one of the most conservative members in Congress.  Normally a first year incumbent would find themselves challenged, yet not as susceptible when compared against a veteran lawmaker with an extensive voting record.  However, many factors are working against Heller which have not been working against other freshman Republicans.  First, Democrats have made tremendous gains statewide in registration numbers.  While the state still remains competitive on the national level McCain has largely ignored Nevada.  Obama and grassroots organizations have not however.  Second, Nevada has one of the highest home foreclosure and unemployment rates in the nation.  Two counties here have significantly high unemployment: Lyon (9%) and Nye (10%).  Finally, the unpopularity of Bush has been hurting Republicans nationwide, yet Heller must also deal with the unpopularity of Governor Gibson.  Neither are beneficial avenues for support.  Heller’s challenger is 2006 Democratic nominee Jill Derby, who enters the race with immediate name recognition.  Derby is running as a fiscal conservative (a must here) and attempting to link Heller to Bush’s economic failures.  However, the race here is an uphill climb for any Democrat.  Most of the counties, including Carson City are considered favorable to Republicans.  Washoe County, the population center of the district, has turned in favor of Democrats (hardly imaginable two years earlier).  Derby must therefore strongly carry Washoe County.  She must also carry Mineral and White Pine counties.  Heller must carry Carson City, along with Churchill, Douglas, Elko, Humboldt, and Lyon counties.  The decisive battleground will be Clark and Nye counties.  Whomever carries this combined area will most likely be the victor.  With cross border DCCC attacks (CA-4 and NV-3) saturating the district and new DCCC attacks against Heller himself, the end result could only be one of misfortune.

Outlook: Derby defeats Heller (Dem Gain)    

3rd – Porter (R)

If one district could be described as the epicenter of the economic collapse then this would be the one.  High unemployment and extremely high foreclosures have been plaguing Clark County even before most of the rest of the nation started feeling the pain.  Jon Porter is running for re-election under a poisonous environment.  The district is 44% Democratic and the opponent is State Senator Dina Titus, an unsuccessful candidate for Governor in 2006.  Porter leads in fundraising, yet a majority of his contributions come from PAC’s, the same special interest groups which Titus has been attacking him on rather effectively.  Porter should have little difficulty carrying the areas further from Las Vegas, such as Boulder City and Laughlin.  However, unincorporated Clark County and parts of Las Vegas in the district should go for Titus.  The decisive location is Henderson.  Coincidentally, Titus represents Henderson in the state legislature.  In drafting Titus to enter the race it’s almost certain that Democrats knew that the nominee had to be from Henderson.  Porter’s long Bush record and Titus’s home field advantage are all sure bets on Titus.

Outlook: Titus defeats Porter (Dem Gain)

3rd – Open Seat (R)

It was only months ago that most assumed that Democratic State Senator John Adler had secured this seat, largely due to the lack of available funds for Republican challenger Chris Myers.  Months later Myers fundraising has increased dramatically and both parties are spending heavily here.  In fact, the Republicans are more confident in retaining this seat than they are in saving fellow Northeast incumbents (Shays and Kuhl).  Republicans are trying to portray Adler as a politician from Camden.  Cherry Hill is the only part of Camden County which actually falls within the district.  Adler should have no difficulty carrying Camden County, but he does need to carry Burlington County, which is essentially the decisive county here.  Even though Democrats have been making inroads in South Jersey there are still some areas, including Ocean County, which remain favorable to Republicans.  If Adler can carry Burlington and keep Myers under 60% in Ocean then it’s fair to say that one more seat has turned blue.

Outlook: Adler defeats Myers (Dem Gain)  

5th – Garrett (R)

Marge Roukema, the predecessor to Scott Garrett, said it best when she stated that he was far too conservative for the district.  While voters ignored her plea there have been signs in elections since that Garrett’s ability to keep his seat secure has been shaky at best.  Bergen County, once a Republican stronghold, has been gradually turning more Democratic.  Democrat Dennis Shulman hopes that he can do what others have failed in doing, which is to dump Garrett.  The voting record he has accumulated has been way too conservative for the district and his vote against the bailout may have backlash coming from Bergen, where many work in the financial service industry.  Shulman should carry Bergen, which coincidentally provides the most votes in the district.  Passaic County also has the possibility of coming Shulman’s way.  However, Garrett cannot afford to lose Sussex and Warren counties.  Should he lose either then there is no way he can win.  He must carry more than 60% in Sussex and more than 55% in Warren, anything less will not be enough to offset the losses Garrett is certain to incur from Bergen County.  Neither party has been spending here, yet Shulman’s fundraising has been impressive, making this the most serious challenge Garrett has ever faced.  Shulman is also bringing in an equal amount of individual contributions from Bergen County.  Shulman has been placing Garrett on the defense non-stop by classifying him as corrupt, not paying his taxes, and failing to deliver.  Garrett did not answer the accusations, yet he responded by seeking to link Shulman with Middle East terrorists.  This is one district where social issues, Garrett’s hallmark, do not work effectively.  In seeking to connect Shulman with terrorists Garrett may have sealed his own fate.  If there ever was an election when Garrett was most vulnerable, then this would be the one.  Roukema can finally have a celebration now that her nemesis is on his way out.

Outlook: Shulman defeats Garrett (Dem Gain)

7th – Open Seat (R)

Very few challengers have negatives as high as Democrat Linda Stender, mostly a result of her 2006 campaign against retiring Mike Ferguson.  However, Stender is in a better position against Republican State Senator Leonard Lance.  She has the name recognition which Lance had to build up following a crowded primary which featured the daughter of former Governor Christie Todd Whitman.  Stender also has spent two times as much against Lance.  However, there are the negatives.  Lance has been trying hard to tie Stender with unpopular Governor Corzine.  Stender has responded by linking Lance’s positions with that of Bush.  Which of the two is more popular in the district?  Probably Corzine, but not by much.  The areas where Stender will perform strong are Middlesex and Union counties.  Lance will perform better in Hunterdon and Somerset counties.  Three independent candidates are guaranteed to take between 3-4% of the vote, a decisive amount for a close race such as this.  The biggest threat comes from Bridgewater Councilor Michael Hsing, a Republican himself.  Based on Hsing being a threat to Lance and a majority of the voters being in the counties favorable to Stender the edge lies with her.  However, a last minute campaign stop by Bill Clinton must be a sign that Stender has not energized the Democratic base as some would have liked.  As long as she performs above 56% in Middlesex and above 51% in Union then Stender should have no difficulty winning.

Outlook: Stender defeats Lance (Dem Gain)

1st – Open Seat (R)

The retirement of Heather Wilson brought with it the guarantee that this district would shift toward Democrats.  The race pits Albuquerque councilor Martin Heinrich against Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White.  The district takes in the city of Albuquerque, making Bernalillo County the crown jewel.  Heinrich should carry Bernalillo, yet he needs to carry it with a 2-3% margin over White.  The task for Heinrich is much easier considering that this district is 48% Democrat overall.  Both candidates have strong fundraising, yet outside groups have also spent heavily.  The Republican state party has been spending on White’s behalf ever since the NRCC pulled out, yet the DCCC continues to spend here along with a big buy on Heinrich’s behalf by the American Federation of SCME.  Hispanics, who will make up the bulk of the electorate here, will most certainly abandon the GOP this year, once again signifying that Hispanics are becoming even more alienated from the Republican brand.

Outlook: Heinrich defeats White (Dem Gain)

2nd – Open Seat (R)

Another open seat, yet one which has two millionaires going back and forth against one another.  Neither candidate had an easy primary, yet Republican Edward Tinsley came out of a three-way primary bruised.  The primary focused on mainly social issues and questions of whether Tinsley lived in the district or in Santa Fe, the most liberal part of the state.  Democrat Harry Teague also had a contentious primary, yet one which was far more civil than the one Tinsley got ensnarled into.  Both candidates have spent their own money on the race, yet surprisingly they have managed to raise strong amounts in individual contributions.  Tinsley’s fundraising however stands out for the fact that 69% of his entire contributions came from out of the state.  The district is largely rural, but also 47% Democrat.  Even with the Democratic advantage, conservative Republicans like Steve Pearce, have managed to win here by appealing to conservative Democrats, mainly situated in Alamogordo, Carlsbad,  Hobbs, and Roswell.  Democrats have a much easier advantage in Las Cruces, which has a large Hispanic electorate.  Teague needs to carry Dona Ana County with more than 55% of the vote.  He must also perform competitively, yet not necessarily win, in Chaves, Eddy, Lea, and Otero counties.  With very little Republican resources blanketing the district or the state itself Democrats have taken advantage of the situation and spent heavy.  The lack of spending by the Republican state party doesn’t make sense since this seat would be easier to reclaim than the first district.  Republicans either feel safe that the district is not threatened or else they underestimated the electorate.  I’m willing to bet the second.

Outlook: Teague defeats Tinsley (Dem Gain)

13th – Open Seat (R)

If there was a listing of the ten strangest races in US history, then this should make the top ten.  First, Fossella discloses that he has had an extramaritial affair, resulting in the birth of a secret child and the disclosure that he would not run for re-election in this Roman Catholic majority district.  Fossella’s withdrawal then led to the appointment, followed by the untimely death of Frank Powers.  The Staten Island GOP, already in turmoil, then decided to appoint Robert Straniere, as the replacement candidate.  The problem is that Straniere lives outside the district (Manhattan) and GOP power boss Guy Molinari in no way wanted Straniere.  The strangeness doesn’t end there.  Republicans then sought to nominate Straniere for a judgeship, which would allow them to place Fossella back on the ballot, yet Straniere was not willing to give up his position.  The Staten Island GOP in disarray is just another reminder that the Republican Party in New York is falling apart, little by little.  In case most people missed this one, this race has already been called in favor of New York City Councilman Mike McMahon, even the GOP have acknowledged this one.

Outlook: McMahon defeats Straniere (Dem Gain)

25th – Open Seat (R)

The retirement of James Walsh basically handed Democrat Dan Maffei this Republican held seat.  Republicans also wrote the seat off after poor recruitment resulted in the selection of former Onondaga Legislator Dale Sweetland.

Outlook: Maffei defeats Sweetland (Dem Gain)

26th – Open Seat (R)

Very few would have imagined this Republican leaning district as a battleground, yet Democrat Alice Kryzan, following her surprise win in the primary, has energized the DCCC.  Only after winning the primary did Kryzan’s fundraising pick up drastically.  Spending by the DCCC has been much stronger than that of the NRCC.  The district is mostly rural and 41% Republican.  Many would consider this territory favorable to Republicans, yet businessman Chris Lee may not have been the strong candidate that Republicans had envisioned.  However, the placement of Jonathan Powers on the Working Families Party, does more hurt to Kryzan than help.  While Powers has come out on behalf of Kryzan, following his loss in the Democratic primary, Kryzan cannot afford to lose any Democratic voters in this Republican district.  Republicans have sought to brand Kryzan as a liberal, yet slogans such as this don’t go very far in New York, even in conservative areas such as this.  Democrats have attacked Lee over free trade, yet unemployment here remains relatively low, with the exception of Niagara and Orleans County.  A last minute disclosure that Lee hacked into a company computer and was fired for raising clients credit limits will cost him votes.  Kryzan must perform strong in and win Erie and Niagara counties, the suburban areas of the district.  The power base for Lee will be in the rural counties of Genesee, Livingston, Orleans, and Wyoming.  Kryzan must keep Lee under 60% in these rural counties.  The one critical area for Kryzan is Monroe County.  It was Monroe County which essentially provided Tom Reynolds with his close re-election in 2006.  If she does not win here then her prospects of winning overall are dim at best.  This race is difficult to call, mostly due to demographics, and the unknown effect that Jonathan Powers will have on this race, yet Kryzan winning by the slimmest of margins is what I predict.

Outlook: Kryzan defeats Lee (Dem Gain)

29th – Kuhl (R)

The district is 44% Republican, yet Randy Kuhl has had a difficult time retaining his base.  Much of Kuhl’s record has been conservative, which may be too conservative for the moderates within the Republican ranks.  A 2006 rematch pitches Kuhl against veteran Eric Massa.  This year Massa has raised more than Kuhl, who has been heavily dependent on PAC money.  The DCCC has also spent more heavily here than the NRCC.  To his credit, which is does not receive much of, NRCC Chairman Tom Cole has come to the realization that you can’t support all of the radical Bush conservatives, as a result the spicket for Kuhl has been cut back significantly.  Kuhl’s strongholds are seen as Allegany, Cattaraugus, and Steuben counties.  Massa should easily carry Monroe County, yet if he’s also carrying Chemung, Ontario, and Yates counties then the race against Kuhl will be called at once.

Outlook: Massa defeats Kuhl (Dem Gain)

8th – Hayes (R)

Unlike the seats held by Foxx and McHenry, Robin Hayes represents a district favorable to Democrats.  The main issue in this district has constantly been free trade.  The district is heavily dependent on the manufacturing sector, yet many residents fear that free trade pacts will cost them jobs in the near future.  Hayes barely hung on during a year when the Republican Party was falling apart.  Now that the Republican Party has fallen apart it’s highly unlikely that Hayes can survive this round.  Democrats compose a majority of the registration here and African-Americans account for 27% of the entire electorate.  Democrat Larry Kissell needs to bring Hayes under 55% in Cabarrus and under 50% in Cumberland counties.  If Hayes loses Union County then he is in serious trouble.  Kissell also needs to gear for 70% or more of the vote in Mecklenburg County.  While DCCC spending has continued non-stop the same cannot be said true for the NRCC.  A cutting off of funds and Hayes extremely close race two years ago, combined with a huge African-American turnout in a Democratic year is sure to be the end game for Hayes.

Outlook: Kissell defeats Hayes (Dem Gain)

1st – Chabot (R)

One of the most expensive races in the nation features Steve Chabot against State Representative Steve Driehaus.  Both parties have spent equally here and third parties, including labor unions have also joined the fray.  Both candidates have strong fundraising, yet also strong dependence on PAC’s.  Many negatives exist here for Chabot, including a long voting record and the likelihood that a strong African-American turnout in Cincinnati will aid Driehaus.  For his part Driehaus must carry Hamilton County since it is likely that Butler County will remain with Chabot.  However, if Chabot loses Butler County, then that is an early indication that the race has ended.  Driehaus needs to bring Chabot under 48% in Hamilton County.  Should that be accomplished then Chabot would have been defeated.

Outlook: Driehaus defeats Chabot (Dem Gain)

2nd – Schmidt (R)

“Mean Jean” Schmidt has struggled holding this seat since winning it in a special election.  Those struggles are indicitive that Schmidt has alienated independents and moderates, providing an opening for Democrat Victoria Wulsin.  The race surprised many by how strong Wulsin performed in this Republican leaning district.  Republicans commissioned a poll in October which clearly showed Schmidt behind, forcing them to spend here.  However, the DCCC had already known beforehand that Schmidt was behind and beat the NRCC to the airwaves.  Wulsin’s fundraising has been much stronger than Schmidt, performing ahead of Schmidt in contributions received within the district.  A good thing for Wulsin is that a third party candidate has the potential of costing Schmidt votes, especially in a close race.  Wulsin needs to carry the areas where she performed strongly in 2006.  That includes the counties of Brown, Hamilton, Pike, and Scioto.  Strong areas for Schmidt are Adams, Clermont, and Warren county.  Two areas to watch are Adams and Hamilton counties.  Adams unemployment rate is over 9% so that clearly benefits Wulsin.  Should Wulsin carry Adams County and perform over 55% in Hamilton County then “Mean Jean” is gone.  Since Democrats are certain to have a much stronger ground operation in Hamilton County than Republicans this is a race slipping away from Republicans, courteousy of radical Schmidt.

Outlook: Wulsin defeats Schmidt (Dem Gain)

15th – Open Seat (R)

Another Republican retirement and heavy spending by both parties, yet this is a clear case of where the Republicans are at a disadvantage.  Republican State Senator Steve Stivers is facing against former Franklin County Commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy.  In 2006, Kilroy came very close in defeating Deborah Pryce.  The second round promises to be more rewarding.  Pryce will have Obama coattails in Franklin County and she must win strong here, taking at least 54% of the vote.  Strong turnout by college students at Ohio State University and minorities will be the pull Kilroy needs in bringing her to a final victory.

Outlook: Kilroy defeats Stivers (Dem Gain)

16th – Open Seat (R)

The retirement of Ralph Regula brings with it the strong possibility that this seat could indeed flip.  Heavy spending by both parties indicates that it is indeed a target.  Republican State Senator Kirk Schuring and Democratic State Senator John Boccieri are battling it out on the airwaves. Labor unions, a powerful force in the district, are fighting to get Boccieri elected, spending heavily on his behalf.  However, Boccieri has a noticeable problem in fundraising.  His donations are equally split between individual contributions and PAC’s.  His contributions in the Canton area are significantly behind Schuring.  Republicans also have their own problems.  Ashland County, the most Republican area, has unemployment over 7%.  Stark County, the center and location of most voters, also has unemployment over 70%.  In recent weeks the NRCC has cut back spending here significantly, a sign that Democrats are not only outspending them, but also winning over undecided voters.  Stark County is the ultimate prize here.  Whoever carries Stark County most likely carries the district.  There is however a chance that Boccieri can take 47% here and bring Schuring under 60% in the remaining counties and still win.  Republicans have an uphill battle on their hands for this open seat and it doesn’t look favorable.

Outlook: Boccieri defeats Schuring (Dem Gain)  

3rd – English (R)

A weak performance in 2006 against a very underfunded challenger was an early sign of Phil English’s vulnerability.  Democrat Kathy Dahlkemper is a businesswoman who has managed to outraise English in Erie, the district’s center.  English has also been heavily dependent on PAC money (a sign of incumbent vulnerability).  Dahlkemper needs to concentrate on three counties: Butler, Erie, and Mercer.  If she carries Erie County strongly that in itself could be enough to push English out of office.  Labor unions have been spending heavily on behalf of Dahlkemper here.  Erie is also heavily Democratic, whereas Mercer narrowly favors Democrats.  However, Butler County is Republican and if English can’t carry the largest Republican base in the district then his chances of prevailing are gone.  Three factors make this seat less friendly for English: his past electoral performance, toxic Republican brand, and strong labor turnout from Erie.

Outlook: Dahlkemper defeats English (Dem Gain)

6th – Gerlach (R)

Democratic recruitment here was not seen as being very strong, especially considering that Jim Gerlach has consistently struggled to maintain this seat.  Fundraising by Democrat Robert Roggio has not been incredible, yet sufficient enough to get his campaign on the airwaves.  Gerlach also has a problem in this arena since half of his overall fundraising is derived from PAC money.  The district includes suburban Philadelphia and parts of Reading.  Roggio’s hope of carrying the district rely on strong performances in the following locations: Berks (Reading), Chester (Phoenixville), and Montgomery (Lower Merion, Narbeth, Norristown, and Pottstown).  Berks (except Reading) and Chester counties should be strongholds for Gerlach.  Montgomery County should favor Roggio.  If Gerlach is trailing in early returns, then look for Downington, East Norriton, and Exeter Township.  If Gerlach is behind in any of these three then we can be in for a long night here.  If Gerlach is behind in Montgomery County, then that should be expected, since his vote against the bailout vote may not be received well in the middle to upper income areas of the county.  Large minority turnout in Norristown and Reading should also help Roggio greatly.  If Gerlach is under 55% in Berks and Chester counties and performing behind in the three locations listed above then a major upset has materialized.

Outlook: Roggio defeats Gerlach (Dem Gain)    

15th – Dent (R)

A poor performance in 2006 against a candidate that only spent $80,000 demonstrated that Charlie Dent is not as secure as he and some others may have believed.  Democrat Sam Bennett has raised much more money than Dent’s 2006 challenger.  Her campaign appears to be more of a grassroots appeal to residents of a district which favors Democrats.  Northampton County is by far the most favorable area and Bennett should carry it.  Bennett’s ability to win here not only requires huge Democratic turnout, but also taking more than 55% of the vote in Northampton County.  She also needs to bring Dent’s margin in Montgomery County down to 55%.  Finally, she must bring Dent under 53% in Lehigh County.  A narrow victory is in sight for what has been a sleeper race.

Outlook: Bennett defeats Dent (Dem Gain)  

1st – Brown (R)

If Henry Brown loses re-election then he can blame it on the forest fire he started.  It’s not the fire itself which has hurt Brown, but the evident pressure he placed on government agencies after they fined him for the fire in a national park.  Normally self-fundraisers have money, but offer nothing much else, yet Democrat Linda Ketner comes off as being articulate, very knowledgeable, and bi-partisan in her ads.  Her ability to appeal in a Republican district may explain why both the state and national parties have spent on her behalf.  Brown himself has not been a very strong fundraiser however, Ketner has outraised him in individual contributions and has raised double that which Brown has brought in.  The demographics of the district are favorable to Ketner in many ways.  African-Americans compose 22% of the electorate and women are 55%.  Brown’s biggest mistake may have been when he fell apart in the debate and became overly aggressive with Ketner stating that she was not a real “Southern” lady and threatening to expose stuff about her and make the race personal.  If Ketner is going to win here she must carry Charleston County.  She must also bring Brown below 55% in both Georgetown and Horry counties.  If Brown falls below 60% in Berkeley or Dorchester counties then it’s fair to say that games over.  If elected, Ketner would become the first openly gay politician from South Carolina, however her sexual orientation has not been a subject in this race surprisingly.  A surprise upset is coming and Brown is going back to the woods to start another fire.

Outlook: Ketner defeats Brown (Dem Gain)    

10th – McCaul (R)

This unusual, yet clearly gerrymandered district, extends from Austin to the suburbs of Houston.  Michael McCaul is going up against Democrat Larry Joe Doherty, the tough no nonsense judge portrayed on Texas Justice.  Doherty got off to a slow start, yet fundraising picked up dramatically in the final month of the campaign, moving momentum toward Doherty when he needed it the most.  Doherty should perform well in the Austin area of the district, while McCaul will concentrate on his base in the Houston suburbs.  Interestingly, Doherty has raised double in the Houston area than McCaul, a clear sign of McCaul being in trouble with his base.  Doherty needs to aim for 60% or more of the total vote in Travis County, while holding McCaul in the low 60% in Harris County.  A Libertarian candidate also does damage for McCaul here.  Republicans have lost close races statewide when Libertarians were on the ballot and signs indicate that the Libertarian movement is becoming stronger not weaker.  An early sign of McCaul in trouble could come from the four counties that compose the border between Austin and Houston: Austin, Burleson, Lee, and Washington counties.  If McCaul is performing under 60% in this area then he will have very little opportunity to regain the lead.  This seat is much easier for Democrats to pick up than the 7th and Doherty enjoys strong name recognition.  With the tide going against Republicans nationally and statewide, this is one race where Republicans may have simply overlooked the threat.

Outlook: Doherty defeats McCaul (Dem Gain)

2nd – Drake (R)

Republicans have got to be losing their patience with Thelma Drake.  She has consistently faced close races and won each narrowly, yet in a year when turnout is expected to be phenomenal it will be an extremely difficult for Drake.  The DCCC is spending here heavily and the NRCC jumped in only at the last minute.  Democrat Glenn Nye has brought in a powerhouse to help him win the district: former governor Mark Warner.  He’s also seeking to alienate Drake from her only base in Virginia Beach: veterans.  Nye should win the Eastern Shore and Norfolk, leaving Virginia Beach as the true battleground.  With increase turnout by African-Americans expected in Virginia Beach this should be sufficient in brining Nye to a narrow victory over Drake.  If Drake performs evenly with Nye in Virginia Beach or loses the city outright then the district has turned blue.  Drake has a tough struggle at hand and it doesn’t look good.

Outlook: Nye defeats Drake (Dem Gain)

5th – Goode (R)

Republican Virgil Goode is in a fight that he may have never anticipated months earlier.  As a result he is seeking to paint Democrat Tom Perriello as a carpetbagger from New York, however the carpetbagger has managed to raise more funds in Charlottesville than Goode.  One bad side for Perriello is that 43% of his contributions are coming from out of state, predominantly New York.  Perriello needs to carry the Charlottesville area strong and along with it Albermarle, Brunswick, and Nelson counties.  The southern part of the district (Bedford, Franklin, Halifax, Henry, and Pittsylvania counties) are strong territory for Goode.  If Perriello brings Goode under 70% here then Goode is in deep trouble.  Charlottesville must produce a strong vote margin for Perriello in order to offset the gains which Goode is expected to receive in the Danville/Martinsville area.  A strong asset for Perriello is that 21% of the electorate is African-American so Obama coattails are certain.  Perriello must then pick up remaining Democrats, independents, and moderate Republicans.  In order to accomplish this Perriello is portraying Goode as corrupt and it may actually have worked due to the late disclosure that Goode’s congressional office secured an earmark for a gay film.  The earmark is only the beginning of the controversy however.  His congressional office’s fax number appeared on a gay brochure in Toronto claiming to be the office for Eden’s Curve, a gay art house in the district.  In the final weeks Goode’s press secretary resigned after it was discovered that he had a speaking role in the gay film.  Note to Goode: Don’t waste taxpayers money and more importantly don’t lose your conservative base so easy, especially this close to an election.

Outlook: Perriello defeats Goode (Dem Gain)

11th – Open Seat (R)

An open seat has given Democrats an easy pickup in suburban Washington.  The district is the wealthiest in the nation and one of the most diverse demographically.  Hispanics, African-Americans, and Asians comprise 10% of the population each.  Farifax County Chair Gerry Connolly is the Democratic nominee and Keith Fimian is the Republican.  Fimian’s fundraising has been surprisingly strong for a Republican, yet half of his contributions have also come from out of state.  This is one seat which Republicans would have a struggle at hand in retaining.

Outlook: Connolly defeats Fimian (Dem Gain)

8th – Reichert (R)

Republicans are spending resources in order to save Dave Reichert, yet Democrat Darcy Burner has a sizeable fundraising advantage over Reichert this round.  In 2006, Burner did not win big in King County, which was necessary in order to prevail.  This year she must carry King County strong and not allow Reichert to outperform her too big in Pierce County.  The collapse of the financial service industry has definately had an impact here.  Washington Mutual, one of the state’s largest employers, employs thousands in the district.  Microsoft is headquartered here and is expected to annouce job cutbacks.  Neither of these could have come at a worst time for Reichert.  Lately the campaign has turned to an issue of no importance: whether or not each candidate has the respective educational credentials which they claim.  Obama is expected to perform strong in the district and with coattails Burner should sprint across the finish line.

Outlook: Burner defeats Reichert (Dem Gain)  

2nd – Capito (R)

Only in the final weeks did the DCCC start spending here, a clear indication that Shelley Moore Capito may not be as safe as she would like to be.  Only two counties (Morgan and Upshur) in the eighteen county district favor Republicans.  Capito’s past re-election’s have relied on bringing in Democratic voters.  This year Democrat Anne Barth hopes to take back those Democratic voters and with it the seat.  Kanawha County (Charleston) provides the bulk of the votes here and should go strongly for Barth.  The two decisive counties here are Berkeley and Jackson.  If Capito falls below 60% in either then it’s highly likely that the night will end with her loss.  Jefferson County (Martinsburg) is another interesting area to watch since it borders on Virginia.  Should Obama perform strong here then Barth will be the beneficiary.  One bright spot for Capito may be that the district enjoys a very low unemployment rate.  However, the West Virginia legend Robert Byrd is working hard to bring Barth to victory and with huge turnout from Kanawha County victory may become a reality.

Outlook: Barth defeats Capito (Dem Gain)