I’ve taken the preliminary House election results rounded up at Wikipedia and put them into a more user-friendly spreadsheet. (I also added numbers for CA & WA.) A link to the full sheet is here. Enjoy!
UPDATE (James): One thing we’ll have to update in this chart are the SC-01 numbers. Linda Ketner actually did amazingly well, scoring 47.88% of the vote against crumb-bum GOP Rep. Henry Brown. It seems like there was a tabulation error in the previous results.
Remember how “endangered” Zack Space was?
That’s incumbent reelected by 60 to 40 Congressman Space to you, buddy!
The Big Question: which two Buckeye Congresscritters will have their districts eliminated in 2012?
Kaptur is out to serve longer than Margaret Chase Smith (making her the longest serving woman in Congress) which will take ten more years.
Another big question: who will take on Voinovich in 2010? Looks like Tim Ryan (OH-17), Lee Fischer (Lt. Gov.) or Rich Cordray (AG elect.)
Purportedly, by taking the AG slot (which IS a great fit for him), Cordray has agreed not to run in favor of Fisher, which IMHO would be a Bad Thing. I would completely support Ryan over Fisher.
Mario Diaz-Balart, Bilbray, Rohrabacher, Calvert, Dreier, Lungren, Shadegg, Rogers (AL), Young (AK).
All won with less than 55% (some below 50). McCotter looks particularly vulnerable to a decent challenge in 2010.
I’ve been comparing various predictions versus results in my own sheet:
http://spreadsheets.google.com…
You guys did pretty well so far. By my count you only called 2 House races incorrectly, although you did sort of hedge your bets by calling 25 as tossups, as opposed to Stuart Rothenberg who got 4 wrong, but only had 14 toss-up predictions.
The Senate results are here:
http://spreadsheets.google.com…
Did Heinrich and Teague really get exactly the same percentage of votes (to two decimal places)?
Stivers campaign, Politico, and the local NBC station say Stivers is leading by 393 votes, but Kilroys Campaign, CNN, and the Ohios SOS say it’s only 149. I’m optimistic about this one, with at least 27,000 more ballots to be counted, and most from Franklin County. Does anyone know when those ballots will be counted? Also optimistic about Minnesota and Alaska Senate.
I’ve lived here my whole life and i’ll admit there are a lot of Republicans in the area but the trend is going our way and for the first time ever I saw more Democratic signs then Republican signs in my area in Brevard county. Granted I haven’t been around that long but the sheer sight of that was pretty inspiring considering how red we are considered.
I’m gonna do my best to perdict what this district looks like now after the presidential race.
In 2004 the district voted 57-43 for Bush. In 2006 Bob Bowman a 9/11 conspiracy believer won 44% of the vote against incumbent Dave Weldon. In 2008 Dr. Stephen Blythe who I believed raised less then 50k still managed to get 42% of the vote against his Republican opponent.
Now there are 4 counties in Floridas 15th.
Brevard, Indian River, Osecola and Polk
Comparing the two presidential races: Remember FL-15 voted 57-43 for Bush in 04 the 08 data isn’t clear yet.
Brevard voted: 55-44 for McCain (in 04: 58-42 Bush) (only part of the county is in the district)
Indian River voted 57-42 McCain (in 04 it voted 60-37 for Bush)
Osceola voted 60-40 for Obama (in 04 it voted 53-47 for Bush)
Polk County voted 53-47 for McCain (in 04 it voted 59-41 for Bush) (only sliver of county in the district).
Here are the county results for the 2008 House election:
Brevard: Posey 55% (R) (113,302) Blythe 39% (D)
Indian River: Posey 60% (R) (40,015) Blythe (36%) (D)
Osceola: Blythe 54% (D) (41,009) Posey (32,899) 43% (R)
Polk: Blythe 50% (D) (5,478) Posey 46% (5,125) (R)
I think the strategy to win here is good turnout in Osceola and the sliver of Polk combined with keeping it close in Brevard and keeping the Republican under 60% in Indian River. I’m not sure how well Obama did in the parts of Polk and Brevard that are in the district but I imagine better then Blythe since he was so underfunded and drowned out. So I can’t imagine the district being any more then 55-45 Republican at this point I imagine it’s even less. We should hit this district now while momentum is still on our side before Posey gets a chance to entrench himself.
Just a hand count from your chart so it may be slightly off but I get 115 seats where Democrats score 70% or above vs. 26 for Republicans. In the Northeast it was 36-0.
On the other hand, look at how many “safe” Republicans scored under 60%. Lots of targets and a nice safe space.
Will CA repeat its end of decade trick from 2000 with IIRC around 5 seats flipping from R to D in the last election prior to redistricting? Lots of R seats in the 501s this time around in the Golden State.