More vote counts have been released in the Alaska Senate race, and they show Mark Begich building slightly on his 814-point lead from yesterday.
Mark Begich (D): 137,527 (47%)
Ted Stevens (R): 136,466 (47%)
Bob Bird (AIP): 11,933 (4%)
Fredrick Haase (L): 2,215 (0%)
Ted Gianoutsos (NA): 1,218 (0%)
It’s unclear if there’s going to be a second wave of results for the day (according to the release schedule, this should be all for today), but if this is everything for today, then Begich is in really good shape. Today was the day for the counting from the Mat-Su Valley (home turf for Sarah Palin and the state’s most conservative core).
Today the state expects to count all absentee and questioned ballots left from the Matanuska-Susitna Borough and northern and western Alaska. Elections officials will also count most, if not all, Fairbanks ballots today. Tuesday is the ballot count for Anchorage and Southeast, where the majority of outstanding votes lie.
If Begich emerged from Mat-Su counting day with more rather than fewer votes, with areas like more Begich-friendly areas still on the table, then he’s starting to look like he’s in the clear. The question is starting to be whether he can get above the 0.5% threshold to avoid a state-paid recount.
UPDATE: It looks like a few more votes trickled in; at 11 pm Eastern, the lead is now 1,022 votes.
new totals
138,959
137,937
got 4% of the vote. But seriosuly. If Mat-Su has come in and Begich increased his lead the race is over. A recount is not going to overthrow a 1000-1500 vote margin, especially out of only 250,000 cast. 206 out of 2.5 million, maybe. But not the margin of error in counting here is just not on Steven’s side, and may even end up adding votes to Begich rather than taking them away.
Really??!! Yippee! We’re SO close now to Dem Senate Seat #58. 😉
I think we were behind in that race before absentees. That would be another Dem pickup. Every vote counts!
…is now down to 1022.
“The Alaska Senate Suspense”
or something like that.
According to the counting schedule provided to us, 11,649 ballots were supposed to be counted today. But in the Senate race, about 14,000 votes were added today to the candidates’ totals. The Alaska counting process remains shrouded in mystery.
Was looking at Intrade and Begich is now up to 97%. He was at 93% before today’s votes came in. With transaction costs, I’m not sure Begich can go much higher.
One of the cool things about being a political junky is all the educational opportunities it offers. Face it, how many of us had even heard of the Mat-Su valley a few months ago? Now we know how critical it is that the valley didn’t help Stevens!
too bad Bird’s first name isn’t Larry
http://www.elections.alaska.go…
Region 1 (Juneau) Absentees – 8370
Tues, 9 AM
Region 2 (Anchorage) Absentees – 7713
Region 2 (Anchorage) Question – 7996
Tues, 10 AM
24,079 total
All other areas, including the infamous Mat-Su Valley, have been counted.
Stephens would need 52.12%, or 12,551 of the remaining total to overcome Begich’s lead if all votes went to those 2 candidates.
In Region 1, Begich leads 54.4% – 45.6% on 58,694 votes counted so far for the 2 major candidates.
In Region 2, Begich leads 50.8% – 49.2% on 108,321 votes counted so far for the 2 major candidates.