Campaign and Election News – Covering Key Races Around the Country
Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?
It’s never too early to start worrying about the 2024 elections.
133 thoughts on “Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?”
My now 9 year old nephew will be running for Congress. He will be 25.
He’s sharp and he came to me with the idea.
1. Ma Gov. Can Deval Patrick be relected? If not will he have the sense to retire in favor of someone electable?
2. Why are the dems even thinking of competing against Crist? Do they need an IQ test in Florida?
3. Judd Greg, Arlene Spector (who knows a lot about what happens when Jewish candidates seek Republican presidential nomination), David Vitter – who else in 2010? Chris Cllizza has a column today on this.
4. I hate the way the VA gov primary is shaping up. Will Warner/Kaine – or even HRC or BHO tell some of them not to run. Look at the Republicans. They already have their Gov and Lt Gov candidates.
We have three.
Senate
Public Service Commission
Court of Appeals
NV-Sen: Lt. Gov. Brian Kolicki may challenge Our Dear Leader Harry Reid. I was a little scared at first about a top-notch GOPer running, but I guess both Rep.-elect Dina Titus & State Sen.-elect Shirley Breeden took care of both of them. I’m feeling better about Reid’s fate now. 😉
NV-Gov: Gibbons, Gibbons, Gibbons! Who can we convince to take out Teh Gibbons? Right now, I’m rooting for Assembly Speaker Barbara Buckley. Unless a stronger Dem emerges, she’s my fave to take out America’s Worst Governor.
CA-Supreme Court: I’m increasingly hopeful that the Supremes will come to our rescue again & overturn the atrociously discriminatory Prop 8. If this comes into fruition as I think, we’ll need to mount a strong campaign to save the justices who side with us from the Rethuglicans out to continue “The Culture Wars”.
CA-Sen: So far, Ahhnuld the Governator is NOT jumping into the fray… Just as I expected. If this continues & State Ass. Chuck DeVore (R-The OC’s Attention Whore) is the GOP’s nominee, expect a 20%+ Barbara Boxer blowout!
CA-Gov: The only reason I’m listing this is because (1) I’m waiting to see when Dianne Feinstein announces & (2) I think we should start a betting pool on what her final margin of victory will be in November 2010.
AZ-Sen: Run, Janet, run! If Napolitano runs, McCrazy has no mo’ Senate seat. 😀
AZ-Gov: Can we PLEASE find a Dem who can win statewide who’s willing to run? PRETTY PLEASE??!!
AZ-03 – Lord to run again?
CA-44 – Close 2008 result
CA-45 – Open race?
DE-AL – Castle to retire
FL-10 – Young to retire
IL-10 – Yeh time for a conservative yet pro choice Jewish candidate to step up.
IL-13 – Harper to run again
MI-11 – unfinished business from 2008
MN-03 – Need a more experienced candidate
NJ-07 – Need a better candidate
NY-23 – McHugh to retire
NY-26 – Freshman GOP incumbent
OH-12 – Tiberi to retire
PA-06 – THE MOST UNFINISHED BUSINESS FROM 2008
PA-15 – Need a better candidate
SC-01 – Ketner to run again
VA-04 – Obama won this district – consider that.
VA-10 – Wolf retires
WA-08 – must be a State Rep/Sen to step up.
throws up
This is why HRC cannot be allowed anywhere near an Obama administration.
The Democrats have a good solid crop to choose from: Former Lt. Gov. Fogerty, current Lt. Gov. Elizabeth Roberts, Providence Mayor David Cicilline, AG Patrick Lynch, and so on. Democrats have an embarrassment of statewide officials to choose from. And don’t forget a possible wildcard: Lincoln Chafee, who could come back as an Independent (and can split votes with either party) or as a Democrat possibly?
we don’t have a strong candidate to field in TX-11
…in 2024.
This presidential primary is getting out of control. The Daniel Biss / Chesla Clinton attacks are getting out of control. Why won’t people listen to Trent Thompson? He’s got real ideas, is really one of us and I think his southern appeal can swing a few states. At least Capri Cafaro doesn’t seem to be catching on.
Also I’m a little worried about MT-Sen. I know I know it’s a reliably blue state now and as a former DSCC Chair and powerful appropriator Tester should be safe but I just can’t shake the feeling we could see a upset.
Lots of people talking about another run and targeting from the dccc. Lost 53-47 in a district where Obama lost by more. Outstanding debate performance, lots of substance, good stuff to say on the local foods movement, was just starting to get a lot of play from openleft.
AL-03: Rogers is so weak and just asking for a major challenge.
AK-AL: Without Palin on the ballot, and with another two years of corruption, we may have a better shot here.
CA-03: We lost by 5%, but a socialist got 4%. Ludgren is weak.
CA-44: Calvert shockingly just barely ahead.
CA-46: Cook was a good candidate, just needed more help.
CA-50: Bilbray is never going to have a solid hold here.
FL-25: Mario Diaz-Balart turned out to be the weakest of the South Florida Republicans.
IL-13: Biggert held down by an underfunded candidate
MI-11: McCotter is the Knollenberg of 2010
MN-03: We can take this district. Paulsen only won a plurality.
PA-06: Gerlach will be permanently endangered.
PA-15: This district is getting to blue for Dent to hold.
SC-01: District no longer hostile to Democrats.
SC-02: We got close with almost no money.
WA-08: Like Gerlach, will never be safe.
For defense, our main concerns should be keeping Massa, Kratovil, and Minnick safe, as they all won against deeply flawed opponents in very red districts.
Okay, I’m kidding.
If Young is to be indicted, convicted, and expelled from the House, what would happen to his seat? Would there be an appointment or special?
Still waiting for results from Ohio 15, California 4, and Minnesota Senate. I’m optimistic that Alaska Senate is all over but the cryin’.
For 2010, Alabama. Will Alabama 5 go back to being a safe Democratic seat like when Bud Cramer was representing it, or will we have to defend it again next year? How much danger will Bobby Bright be in, and can Josh Segall beat Mike Rogers this time around.
Also, I’ve been thinking a lot about the seats that we won in 2008 that the Republicans won’t be able to win back, that will be safe for us for years. It’s more important to pick up these seats, in my opinion, than heavily red districts because we don’t have to worry about defending them in the future. Some of these are
MI-9
OH-1
OH-16
PA-3?
NY-25
NY-13?
CT-4
VA-11
FL-8?
NM-1
NV-3
and OH-15 if we win
And some to hopefully target next year: DE-AL, IL-10, WA-8, PA-6, PA-15, NJ-1, OH-12, OH-14, MI-11, VA-10, FL-18, FL-10, and maybe more.
If the Hillary for SOS rumors do materialize after all, who would be a plausible replacement, Nita Lowey as a placeholder and to make up for the 2000 runup?
Lindsay Graham got a free ride, but don’t count on DeMint being as lucky. He is too conservative for some Chamber of Commerce type Republicans, and he isn’t as well known statewide, as you would think he should be.
Also remember there were TWO house races that were lost by less than 3% this year.
Possible candidates (I will assume House members Spratt and Clyburn are content ot stay put):
Joe Erwin — State Dem chair and promenient businessman from DeMint’s home turf. He owns a prosperous advertising agency, so he should know how to market himself.
Inez Tenebaum — won 45% against DeMint in 2004. Won statewide twice (Superintendent of Education)by more than 60%. Well-regarded by both parties. Has been mentioned for Governor’s race, but you never know. An early supporter of Obama, and he campaigned for her in 2004.
Darla Mooore — Philantrophist with lots of self-fund capability. U of SC business school bears her name. Ketner’s strong showing in the 1st district (another blond, female philantrophist) would have to be encouraging for her. Unlike Ketner, Moore would not have the ‘baggage’ of being gay. Has been mentioned for statewide office before, but conditions for her have never been better, IMO. Although, her name has been most often mentioned for Governor.
Jim Hodges — Ex-Governor, with bad memories from Dems for being TOO non-partisan as Governor. However, he has won statewide once. A longshot,IMO.
Like NC, a Dem here is guaranteed to get 45% with anything close to a decent campaign account. A popular Obama presidency would make that last 5%, easier to get.
A primary for DeMint can’t be ruled out either. There are plenty of GOP candidates looking for a promotion from other statewide offices. If the Governor’s race gets too crowded, they may look here.
Biggest downside for Democrats is that the Governor’s race may take valuable attention and candidates away from the Senate race.
But I was watching this Bill Sali interview prior to the electon, and he said something that was very intriguing.
“The single biggest contribution to carbon emissions is forest fires every year…”
Is he f’n kidding me?
First is Prop 8 and hopefully the emerging gay civil rights movement. Waiting for courts is tedious, long, and we deserve better than having to have courts overturn people’s ignorance. Just basically everything gay rights is on my radar because FINALLY we will get to see some progression. This new movement and wave of protests, boycotts and so forth needs to continue. I think Pride will be way bigger this year, I hope it turns more into a movement, not just getting drunk and dancing (which is fun too obviously).
MN-Gov. Holy shit balls. This is going to be one ridiculous race. I’m committed to Rybak, unless Walz runs then I have no idea. My one criteria is if they are for gay marriage. A gay marriage supporting governor and if we maintain our majorities in the state legislature, us gays may be able to lobby enough to get it passed. I asked Rybak and he’s for gay marriage. And he also said he isn’t sure if he is running for mayor next year again or gov in 2010, meaning he won’t be doing both.
MN-3. Bonoff would’ve won. In fact, just about any DFL state legislators would’ve won. I still love Madia though, he just simply didn’t fit the district demographically and I dont mean race. I’m hoping 2010 goes well and that our prospects in this district aren’t immediality dashed now by incumbency. I’m thinking of moving here after law school so hopefully Paulsen is still ripe for the picking when I’m ready 🙂 Or that we won this seat already, either is fine by me.
I promise I’ll be as tough as Rahmbo with a much better hair! 😀
I think we overestimated the speed at which South Florida is changing this year. Garcia, Taddeo and, to a certain extent, Martinez were all candidates who could have won, if the transformation of Cuban-American politics had been just a little bit further. The changing demographics mean that in a few years, we should be able to pick these seats off. In 2010 I look to close the gap (maybe even win in the 25th), and certainly by 2024, I want South Florida blue.
In order of priority, highest priority first:
Michigan State Senate
Pennsylvania State Senate
Ohio State Senate
Indiana State Senate
Arizona State House
Arizona State Senate
Note: While these bodies are of special concern, I do not know how many (if any) Senate seats are up for election in Ohio, Indiana, or Arizona in 2010.
We’ll probably end up losing this time. But Bill Hedrick came within a few thousand votes in this district while raising a whooping $155,535. He has said he is running again to finish the job. Imagine what he can do with this early of a start and if he raises any sort of money and gets any sort of DCCC involvement.
Since this topic fits nowhere else, I’ll discuss it here. I’ve often seen people write that they wouldn’t vote for (insert party here) for dog catcher. Is this just an expression, because I know of no place that elects animal control officers. I’m of the opinion that such a post should be appointed and filled by someone who knows how to deal not only with escaped/rabid pets but also any wild animals as well (bears, alligators, mountain lions, etc). Making such a post elected is a recipe for disaster.
I’m also against the idea of electing sheriffs. Now, I have no problem having D.As or other such positions as elected offices. However, the idea of electing law enforcement officers just doesn’t make any sense to me.
My now 9 year old nephew will be running for Congress. He will be 25.
He’s sharp and he came to me with the idea.
1. Ma Gov. Can Deval Patrick be relected? If not will he have the sense to retire in favor of someone electable?
2. Why are the dems even thinking of competing against Crist? Do they need an IQ test in Florida?
3. Judd Greg, Arlene Spector (who knows a lot about what happens when Jewish candidates seek Republican presidential nomination), David Vitter – who else in 2010? Chris Cllizza has a column today on this.
4. I hate the way the VA gov primary is shaping up. Will Warner/Kaine – or even HRC or BHO tell some of them not to run. Look at the Republicans. They already have their Gov and Lt Gov candidates.
We have three.
Senate
Public Service Commission
Court of Appeals
NV-Sen: Lt. Gov. Brian Kolicki may challenge Our Dear Leader Harry Reid. I was a little scared at first about a top-notch GOPer running, but I guess both Rep.-elect Dina Titus & State Sen.-elect Shirley Breeden took care of both of them. I’m feeling better about Reid’s fate now. 😉
NV-Gov: Gibbons, Gibbons, Gibbons! Who can we convince to take out Teh Gibbons? Right now, I’m rooting for Assembly Speaker Barbara Buckley. Unless a stronger Dem emerges, she’s my fave to take out America’s Worst Governor.
CA-Supreme Court: I’m increasingly hopeful that the Supremes will come to our rescue again & overturn the atrociously discriminatory Prop 8. If this comes into fruition as I think, we’ll need to mount a strong campaign to save the justices who side with us from the Rethuglicans out to continue “The Culture Wars”.
CA-Sen: So far, Ahhnuld the Governator is NOT jumping into the fray… Just as I expected. If this continues & State Ass. Chuck DeVore (R-The OC’s Attention Whore) is the GOP’s nominee, expect a 20%+ Barbara Boxer blowout!
CA-Gov: The only reason I’m listing this is because (1) I’m waiting to see when Dianne Feinstein announces & (2) I think we should start a betting pool on what her final margin of victory will be in November 2010.
AZ-Sen: Run, Janet, run! If Napolitano runs, McCrazy has no mo’ Senate seat. 😀
AZ-Gov: Can we PLEASE find a Dem who can win statewide who’s willing to run? PRETTY PLEASE??!!
AZ-03 – Lord to run again?
CA-44 – Close 2008 result
CA-45 – Open race?
DE-AL – Castle to retire
FL-10 – Young to retire
IL-10 – Yeh time for a conservative yet pro choice Jewish candidate to step up.
IL-13 – Harper to run again
MI-11 – unfinished business from 2008
MN-03 – Need a more experienced candidate
NJ-07 – Need a better candidate
NY-23 – McHugh to retire
NY-26 – Freshman GOP incumbent
OH-12 – Tiberi to retire
PA-06 – THE MOST UNFINISHED BUSINESS FROM 2008
PA-15 – Need a better candidate
SC-01 – Ketner to run again
VA-04 – Obama won this district – consider that.
VA-10 – Wolf retires
WA-08 – must be a State Rep/Sen to step up.
throws up
This is why HRC cannot be allowed anywhere near an Obama administration.
The Democrats have a good solid crop to choose from: Former Lt. Gov. Fogerty, current Lt. Gov. Elizabeth Roberts, Providence Mayor David Cicilline, AG Patrick Lynch, and so on. Democrats have an embarrassment of statewide officials to choose from. And don’t forget a possible wildcard: Lincoln Chafee, who could come back as an Independent (and can split votes with either party) or as a Democrat possibly?
we don’t have a strong candidate to field in TX-11
…in 2024.
This presidential primary is getting out of control. The Daniel Biss / Chesla Clinton attacks are getting out of control. Why won’t people listen to Trent Thompson? He’s got real ideas, is really one of us and I think his southern appeal can swing a few states. At least Capri Cafaro doesn’t seem to be catching on.
Also I’m a little worried about MT-Sen. I know I know it’s a reliably blue state now and as a former DSCC Chair and powerful appropriator Tester should be safe but I just can’t shake the feeling we could see a upset.
Lots of people talking about another run and targeting from the dccc. Lost 53-47 in a district where Obama lost by more. Outstanding debate performance, lots of substance, good stuff to say on the local foods movement, was just starting to get a lot of play from openleft.
AL-03: Rogers is so weak and just asking for a major challenge.
AK-AL: Without Palin on the ballot, and with another two years of corruption, we may have a better shot here.
CA-03: We lost by 5%, but a socialist got 4%. Ludgren is weak.
CA-44: Calvert shockingly just barely ahead.
CA-46: Cook was a good candidate, just needed more help.
CA-50: Bilbray is never going to have a solid hold here.
FL-25: Mario Diaz-Balart turned out to be the weakest of the South Florida Republicans.
IL-13: Biggert held down by an underfunded candidate
MI-11: McCotter is the Knollenberg of 2010
MN-03: We can take this district. Paulsen only won a plurality.
PA-06: Gerlach will be permanently endangered.
PA-15: This district is getting to blue for Dent to hold.
SC-01: District no longer hostile to Democrats.
SC-02: We got close with almost no money.
WA-08: Like Gerlach, will never be safe.
For defense, our main concerns should be keeping Massa, Kratovil, and Minnick safe, as they all won against deeply flawed opponents in very red districts.
Okay, I’m kidding.
If Young is to be indicted, convicted, and expelled from the House, what would happen to his seat? Would there be an appointment or special?
Still waiting for results from Ohio 15, California 4, and Minnesota Senate. I’m optimistic that Alaska Senate is all over but the cryin’.
For 2010, Alabama. Will Alabama 5 go back to being a safe Democratic seat like when Bud Cramer was representing it, or will we have to defend it again next year? How much danger will Bobby Bright be in, and can Josh Segall beat Mike Rogers this time around.
Also, I’ve been thinking a lot about the seats that we won in 2008 that the Republicans won’t be able to win back, that will be safe for us for years. It’s more important to pick up these seats, in my opinion, than heavily red districts because we don’t have to worry about defending them in the future. Some of these are
MI-9
OH-1
OH-16
PA-3?
NY-25
NY-13?
CT-4
VA-11
FL-8?
NM-1
NV-3
and OH-15 if we win
And some to hopefully target next year: DE-AL, IL-10, WA-8, PA-6, PA-15, NJ-1, OH-12, OH-14, MI-11, VA-10, FL-18, FL-10, and maybe more.
If the Hillary for SOS rumors do materialize after all, who would be a plausible replacement, Nita Lowey as a placeholder and to make up for the 2000 runup?
Lindsay Graham got a free ride, but don’t count on DeMint being as lucky. He is too conservative for some Chamber of Commerce type Republicans, and he isn’t as well known statewide, as you would think he should be.
Also remember there were TWO house races that were lost by less than 3% this year.
Possible candidates (I will assume House members Spratt and Clyburn are content ot stay put):
Joe Erwin — State Dem chair and promenient businessman from DeMint’s home turf. He owns a prosperous advertising agency, so he should know how to market himself.
Inez Tenebaum — won 45% against DeMint in 2004. Won statewide twice (Superintendent of Education)by more than 60%. Well-regarded by both parties. Has been mentioned for Governor’s race, but you never know. An early supporter of Obama, and he campaigned for her in 2004.
Darla Mooore — Philantrophist with lots of self-fund capability. U of SC business school bears her name. Ketner’s strong showing in the 1st district (another blond, female philantrophist) would have to be encouraging for her. Unlike Ketner, Moore would not have the ‘baggage’ of being gay. Has been mentioned for statewide office before, but conditions for her have never been better, IMO. Although, her name has been most often mentioned for Governor.
Jim Hodges — Ex-Governor, with bad memories from Dems for being TOO non-partisan as Governor. However, he has won statewide once. A longshot,IMO.
Like NC, a Dem here is guaranteed to get 45% with anything close to a decent campaign account. A popular Obama presidency would make that last 5%, easier to get.
A primary for DeMint can’t be ruled out either. There are plenty of GOP candidates looking for a promotion from other statewide offices. If the Governor’s race gets too crowded, they may look here.
Biggest downside for Democrats is that the Governor’s race may take valuable attention and candidates away from the Senate race.
But I was watching this Bill Sali interview prior to the electon, and he said something that was very intriguing.
Is he f’n kidding me?
First is Prop 8 and hopefully the emerging gay civil rights movement. Waiting for courts is tedious, long, and we deserve better than having to have courts overturn people’s ignorance. Just basically everything gay rights is on my radar because FINALLY we will get to see some progression. This new movement and wave of protests, boycotts and so forth needs to continue. I think Pride will be way bigger this year, I hope it turns more into a movement, not just getting drunk and dancing (which is fun too obviously).
MN-Gov. Holy shit balls. This is going to be one ridiculous race. I’m committed to Rybak, unless Walz runs then I have no idea. My one criteria is if they are for gay marriage. A gay marriage supporting governor and if we maintain our majorities in the state legislature, us gays may be able to lobby enough to get it passed. I asked Rybak and he’s for gay marriage. And he also said he isn’t sure if he is running for mayor next year again or gov in 2010, meaning he won’t be doing both.
MN-3. Bonoff would’ve won. In fact, just about any DFL state legislators would’ve won. I still love Madia though, he just simply didn’t fit the district demographically and I dont mean race. I’m hoping 2010 goes well and that our prospects in this district aren’t immediality dashed now by incumbency. I’m thinking of moving here after law school so hopefully Paulsen is still ripe for the picking when I’m ready 🙂 Or that we won this seat already, either is fine by me.
I promise I’ll be as tough as Rahmbo with a much better hair! 😀
I think we overestimated the speed at which South Florida is changing this year. Garcia, Taddeo and, to a certain extent, Martinez were all candidates who could have won, if the transformation of Cuban-American politics had been just a little bit further. The changing demographics mean that in a few years, we should be able to pick these seats off. In 2010 I look to close the gap (maybe even win in the 25th), and certainly by 2024, I want South Florida blue.
In order of priority, highest priority first:
Michigan State Senate
Pennsylvania State Senate
Ohio State Senate
Indiana State Senate
Arizona State House
Arizona State Senate
Note: While these bodies are of special concern, I do not know how many (if any) Senate seats are up for election in Ohio, Indiana, or Arizona in 2010.
We’ll probably end up losing this time. But Bill Hedrick came within a few thousand votes in this district while raising a whooping $155,535. He has said he is running again to finish the job. Imagine what he can do with this early of a start and if he raises any sort of money and gets any sort of DCCC involvement.
Since this topic fits nowhere else, I’ll discuss it here. I’ve often seen people write that they wouldn’t vote for (insert party here) for dog catcher. Is this just an expression, because I know of no place that elects animal control officers. I’m of the opinion that such a post should be appointed and filled by someone who knows how to deal not only with escaped/rabid pets but also any wild animals as well (bears, alligators, mountain lions, etc). Making such a post elected is a recipe for disaster.
I’m also against the idea of electing sheriffs. Now, I have no problem having D.As or other such positions as elected offices. However, the idea of electing law enforcement officers just doesn’t make any sense to me.