Then who would Gov. David Paterson appoint in her stead? Paterson needs to think about, among other things, a) removing potential threats to his governorship and b) earning some serious favors and goodwill. Picking AG Andrew Cuomo ships a contender off to DC, and would also let Paterson earn a second chit with an appointment to the Attorney General post.
Alternately (as Trapper John suggested to me), he could pick someone like Rep. Nydia Velazquez (NY-12), which might burnish his support among Hispanics and women. TJ also tossed out Buffalo Mayor Byron Brown as a dark-horse choice: young, African American, and from upstate. I in turn proposed ultra-dark-horse candidate DavidNYC, but I admit the odds of a second Jewish guy from New York City getting tapped to represent this state in the Senate are fairly slim.
There’s still no shortage of names out there, of course. As always, who do you think Paterson would pick, and who should he pick?
Update (James): From the NY Daily News:
Rep. Nydia Velazquez is the front-runner – for now, at least – to replace Hillary Clinton if she becomes the next secretary of state, a source close to Gov. Paterson said yesterday.
There are two other top contenders: Rep. Brian Higgins of Buffalo and Rep. Steve Israel of Long Island. Each would help Paterson with key constituencies when he makes his first run in 2010 for the post he inherited from disgraced Gov. Eliot Spitzer – upstaters in Higgins’ case and suburbanites in Israel’s.
Late Update (David): Looks like Clinton might actually accept, to my surprise. If true, let the games begin!
If you never heard Velasquez attempt to speak English, you’d see why she would probably have trouble running statewide.
Having said that, she’s obviously super qualified.
I’d bet on Brian Higgins. When was the last time we had a Senator from Western New York? I’m from New York City, but I wouldn’t mine seeing from geographic balance here…and Higgins is not a Blue Dog.
Why pick a member of the House? If you want to go the suburban route, three possibilities are Nassau County exec Tom Suozzi, Westchester County Exec Andrew Spano, and Nassau County Exec Steve Levy.
Nita Lowey would be another sound pick as she has been part of the House leadership. Louise Slaughter from upstate represents a safe seat and is part of the House leadership. Better pick than newby Higgins by far.
But I’ll likely cry tears of joy if Hillary is picked as SoS. I don’t think it’s a secret here who I voted for in the Presidential Primary. (And no, I was NEVER one of those crazy PUMAs! Obama had my support from June onward.)
But anyways, what would make my day even BETTER would be seeing Nydia Velasquez picked to fill Hillary’s vacant seat! I’ve always been impressed by her, and I’d really like to see more & better women in the Senate. If Velasquez isn’t picked, however, I wouldn’t mind seeing Nita Lowey or Louise Slaughter picked for the job.
Maurice Hinchey is one of the most liberal members of Congress, and he has a long and impressive record in the House. Another good choice would be Jose Serrano.
Too much of this whole thing seems to be based on what some “Democratic officials” and “advisors” are saying (which suggests to me that their sources aren’t the ones who would really have any information about Obama’s cabinet selection, otherwise they’d be quoting “senior Obama officials” or “sources working closely with Obama on transition” or something to that effect).
With that slight rant out of the way, if Clinton is selected for something in the cabinet, I’d hope that Paterson chooses someone whose name does not begin with E, end with R, and have liot Spitze in the middle 😉
With that said, which Democrat would you rather have as the next Senator? I would choose Maurice Hinchey.
I’m skeptical as to whether the upstate-downstate criterion matters anymore. Clinton was definitely downstate (heck, before she ran she was barely even in-state), but she made a tremendous effort to visit, talk with, and address the concerns of up-staters. As a result, it seems to me that she’s more popular there than one might have expected to begin with. Consequently, I wouldn’t make geographic considerations of the possible replacement much of a factor in terms of holding onto the seat.
The only way to lose the seat would be to nominate a more liberal person who could be seriously challenged by a moderate Republican. Otherwise, that seat should stay blue.
The real tactical issue is not what it means for Senate Democrats but what it means for Patterson. Geography may not matter regarding holding onto the seat, but catering to regional alliances may help Patterson’s ability to govern and win his next election. Still, his race is so far off that I’m skeptical as to how much a geographically influenced appointment would matter in two more years.
On another matter, as much as I like Nita Lowey–I would have liked her to have gotten the Senate seat before Moynahan essentially tapped Clinton for the job–I think her age (71) works against her. Just as with Supreme Court appointments, very qualified candidates are often passed over in favor of other very qualified candidates who might be able to deliver more clout for the long term. I mean no disrespect to her abilities and energy–after all, Justice Stevens at 88 doesn’t seem to have lost a step–but it’s a factor that’s often taken into account.
2007-08 Progressive Punch scores for the NY members of the House, plus their ages.
Top decile (of whole House):
Velazquez 98.55 (55)
Slaughter 98.23 (79)
Serrano 97.93 (65)
Hinchey 97.90 (70)
Nadler 97.49 (61)
2nd decile:
Clarke 97.44 (44)
Crowley 97.30 (46) (he’s moved a lot to the left this session, though; his lifetime score is a suckier 88.52)
Ackerman 96.91 (66)
Bishop 96.88 (58)
Towns 96.79 (74)
Weiner 96.47 (44)
Meeks 96.38 (55)
3rd decile:
Maloney 96.34 (60)
Lowey 96.32 (71)
McNulty 96.09 (61) (retiring, though)
Israel 95.81 (50)
McCarthy 95.80 (64)
Rangel 95.74 (78)
Higgins 95.24 (49)
4th decile:
Hall 95.12 (60)
Arcuri 94.15 (49)
Engel 94.06 (61)
5th decile:
Gillibrand 87.38 (42)
…before Hillary muscled him out? Good name that could serve him well in an election.
Of course from Patterson’s point of view it might be better to appoint someone from a group (latinos, upstate, long island) that you can pander to for your own re-election. No doubt Blago is taking the same sort of things into consideration as he ponders who he should appoint.
His (and Blago’s) only factor in choosing a replacement for HRC and Obama is whether they will be able to win in 2010.
This bogus political armchairing of “Latinos may not vote for Paterson if he doesn’t pick a Latina for the seat” or “Upstate NY will turn against Paterson in a big way and make his election bid difficult if Higgins isn’t picked” are both bogus ideas.
Will the average Joe actually weigh who the Gov picks as the replacement as one of their factors in deciding whether to vote for him? Hell, half the people in the country can’t even name who their district’s Congressman is.
Send Velazquez to the Senate!
i thought i read a a while back in the primary the buzz was hillary would have a great say in ny on who would suceed should she be the nom. i would think hillary would weigh in ith patterson on her replacement. im sure we will hear loads on this. i cant see her leaving this seat to someone who doesnt reflect the things she fights for-healthcare, gernder equality etc.. also-will there be a push to have a oman replace hillary? i bet so and i bet hillary given her stature will have something to say about her senate seat.
If Gov Paterson is looking to secure re-election with a landslide, he’ll choose Higgins. I grew up in Buffalo and am still very plugged into local politics there. Higgins is a HERO in Buffalo for doing quite a bit to help development in downtown Buffalo and along a 120 acre chunk undeveloped of waterfront.
Furthermore, upstaters have long felt ignored by Albany and Washington DC. New York City tends to eclipse the rest of the state. The last Gov to be elected from upstate was Nathan Lewis Miller who left office in 76 years ago (1922). The last US Senator from upstate was Charles Goodell who left office in 37 years ago (1971).
It’s very important to remember that New York is really two states. NYC which until the financial collapse was doing so well that it hides the economic depression that upstate has been going through for a long time. Upstate New York more closely resembles Ohio and Michigan. The Upstate economy, if upstate where its own state, would be the worst in the country (although it has been improving).
Higgins would help on both these fronts. Higgins is in tune with upstate’s problems. Especially those of Buffalo. He could be in a position to help upstate and Buffalo. Higgin’s appointment would also provide some much needed attention to the area by an elected official.
Not to mention he’s a pretty weak campaigner and would’ve still probably lost to Clinton back in 2000 if he would’ve stayed in the senate race.
You’re talking about New York as though it’s a swing state in any sense of the word, when it just voted for the Democratic nominee for president by 25 points.
Are you pulling my leg? Honestly… THIS IS NEW YORK! Maybe if we were talking about Bob Casey (PA) or Jim Webb (VA) getting a Cabinet position in an Obama Administration, I’d then be concerned about electability. I usually err on the side of caution.
But really, we’re talking about a state that Obama carried by 25%! We’re talking about a state that even gave Dukakis the upper hand in 1988! We’re talking about a state where Rudy Giuliani now has a better chance at being elected Bronx Dogcatcher than US Senator.
So come on, please give us some leeway here.
I’D LIKE A GOOD SENATOR PLEASE
I have now read about 90 posts and I have NOT yet seen any analysis about the NUMBER ONE issue. You know, who would be a GOOD SENATOR!!!!
What would the various candidates do as a senator? What could he or she accomplish? What issues would he or she advance? What are is his or her qualifications, past accomplishments, etc. I’ve seen NOTHING about any of these things.
Instead, everything is about politics. Here’s a typical post — “His (and Blago’s) only factor in choosing a replacement for HRC and Obama is whether they will be able to win in 2010.”
Uh, no it isn’t. Certainly, it shouldn’t be. Governors should be looking for good senators, not political winners. Looking for political winners isn’t going to work anyway. Senators should do, well, a GOOD JOB!!!!
I want a Daniel Patrick Moynihan, not an Al D’Amato. An early Hillary Clinton, not the one who spends years running for office. An RFK who stays in the Senate to fight for the issues the public cares about. Not someone who is a great fundraiser.
The more I read this Web site the more I think that most posters are BUSHIAN. And not smart enough to realize it.
What’s Bushian? Someone who doesn’t give a damn about this nation. Someone who ONLY cares about their political party.
Thankfully, it appears we have an administation that wants to be bipartisan rather than petty (ex.–lobbying for Joe Lieberman to keep his committee chair role).
If the bloggers on this Web site ruled the nation, we’d have eight more years of ideological incompetence. Liberal ideological incompetence isn’t a heckuva lot better than conservative incompetence.
Shalom,
ZWrite
PS — The posts about the woman who allegedly barely speaks English were offensive on several levels.
I’m telling you Rudy is popular here and I’m fairly sure he’s popular upstate. Rudy will win Staten island due to the Italians that live their. I’m telling you we elect Peter King to congress in the district next to me constantly and he’s out of his mind. Don’t underestimate long islands ability to elect crazy bastards. If upstate goes republican which against Nydia Velazquez it will, Rudy wins long island and Staten island due to his popularity in the area and no one knowing who the hell Nydia Velazquez is and can hold the numbers down in NYC where he was mayor, he could win. Don’t underestimate our enemy, I’m telling you a lot of people on Long Island have a man crush on Rudy and he could easily pull this out. You need someone with a base outside NYC to prevent this seat from being a fight and wasting DSCC money, Higgins and Israel accomplish this, Israel would destroy Rudy.
they do. He’s like God on Long Island.
There has been a distinct split in the profile of the two New York Senators. One seat has tended to be more of a lower-profile, constituent service and working class seat – Schumer, D’Amato, Javits – the guy in the trenches. The second seat has been the national profile seat – Clinton, Moynihan, Buckley, RFK – the gravitas guy.
Does anyone see any of the Congressfolk mentioned as having that gravitas – the sheer profile – as fitting the self-conception of New York?
Jesus. If we have another Republican Revolution on our hands in 2 years, then it won’t matter if a D+5 seat is open or not. The Republicans will take it if they pick up 50 seats.
I think we have a concern troll here. All I’ve seen you do is obsess over how 2010 could be another 1994 before the new president and congress are even sworn in, and if that doesn’t fit the definition of concern trol, then I don’t know what does.
You want to know the reasons why we lost so much in 1994? 1) the final shift of Southern states into the Republican fold, 2) the assault weapons ban (I think this was a bigger factor than the 1993 tax increase), and 3) the passage of NAFTA. Plus, a number of the seats that were lost were in states where we were weakening to begin with (FL, KY, NC, KS, AZ, etc).
How about former Atty. Gen. Candidate Sean Patrick Maloney?
Am I the only one who wonders why Nydia Velazquez is considered the front runner for this seat? I know she is a Latino woman which satisfies two constituencies. However, she is a very undistinguished member of Congress and she would be a weak appointment. She has virtually no major legislative achievements and Chairs the Small Business Committee which has little power, is populated with freshman and backbenchers since almost every member tries to get off of quickly.
She also serves on the Financial Services Committee which handled TARP and while other NY members of that Committee like Carolyn Maloney were very vocal and active during the bill, Velazquez was a non-entity.
Maybe I am missing something but I don’t see Velazquez as a good appointment. She has little appeal outside of her gerrymandered seat, has shown little ability to raise money and has not had any kind of a serious race since her first election in 1992. I think she would be incredibly vulnerable to a primary challenge.
If David Patterson wants to pick from the House delegation, he would be much better off picking Carolyn Maloney, Nita Lowey, Steve Israel or a host of much stronger and more accomplished House members.