The state of the day is Georgia, where we’ll see Senate and Governor’s races in 2010. Sonny Perdue is term-limited out of the Governor’s mansion, so there will be a lot of candidates — both Democratic and Republican — scrambling for this seat. For a time, it seemed like GOP Senator Johnny Isakson was angling to run for the open office, but he announced earlier this year that he’ll seek a second term in 2010 instead.
While Isakson will be tough to beat, someone’s gotta run against him. Who would you like to see step up to the plate? And who should the Democrats field for the gubernatorial race?
The State Insurance and Fire Commissioner’s office will be open as the current office holder, John Oxendine (R) is running for Governor. The Lt. Governor, Casey Cagle, and Secretary of State Karen Handel are also rumored candidates. State Agriculture Commissioner Tommy Irvin (D) is very old and may retire. The state School Superintendent and the two Public Service Commission seats that will be up in 2010 are all held by the Republicans. And with all of these retirements, there will be state representatives and state senators vacating their seats to run.
Our bench is decimated in Georgia, and with the most mentioned candidates for governor on our currently holding offices liable to flip in an open race (state Attorney General, state Labor Commissioner, state House Minority Leader). I think it may be a better idea to focus on down-ballot races to rebuild the bench. The credential threshold is smaller, they’re not subject to term-limits, and it’s cheaper to win them.
We should still contest the Governor’s race. I’ve heard former Governor Roy Barnes floated and General David Poythress has already announced and is getting some love from the state netroots. I would be more receptive to these two solely because we wouldn’t have to defend an open seat down-ballot.
As for the Senate race, run someone in the off chance that Isakson gets caught with an underage gay hooker, but don’t pour money into.
The wildcards are, however, Jim Martin, should he not win next month, and Jim Powell, who’s also in a runoff for the Public Service Commission.
Vernon Jones for Governor!
The former Secretary of State who lost in the 2006 gubernatorial primary.
The rumors are that Gov. Barnes will run again. He said to me “I don’t want to run”, but I have a hard time thinking he will feel that way much longer.
House Minority Leader DuBose Porter will likely jump in the race. Don’t worry about losing his seat in rural Georgia, its been gerrymandered for a Democrat to win.
State Senator Tim Golden let it be known he would like to be governor or Lt. Gov. When I spoke with him, he said the health of both his parents was giving him cause to rethink that for 2010, and said he would make a decision after the General Assembly for 09.
Poythress might have a shot, I don’t know. He got about 5 or 6% in the Dem primary in 1998, so who knows.
Of course, there are the two wild cards, Congressmen Jim Marshall and John Barrow, both of whom won handily this year. There have been rumors about both moving up the ladder and Marshall told me either Gov or Senate would be cool with him (Barrow I have no idea about). Marshall said he would run if he thought there was a chance of him winning, and if he felt like giving up seniority would not hurt the district.
Thurbert and Thurmond are pretty weak candidates actually. The main reason they keep winning is A) Baker was appointed by Zell Miller and has won by being an incumbent, and Thurmond won when Dems still ran the state. Now he coasts by on incumbency. They are really boring candidates who try to hard to be likable.
Irvin said he would likely retire in 2010, and has been grooming his heir, Fmr. Speaker of the House, Terry Coleman, for the past four years. We will probably keep that position.
Senate…yeah, watch out. Isakson is a much better candidate and campaigner than Saxby and also won’t have a poor economy hurting him, or Barack. Wouldn’t get my hopes up on that one.
Realistically, our Governor’s race is the best chance we have for a pickup, but it will be tough. Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle’s exploratory committee is already doing limited ad buys making people feel good about him (the website touting his work is cutgovernmentwaste.org or something like that).
What ever happened to former SoS Lewis Massey? I know he lost the primary to Barnes for gov in 98, but he was very young then.
Also Michael Coles – Businessman who self-funded some in his race against Coverdell in 98.
Just some thoughts
GA is one state where I would prefer that none of our House incumbents give up a seat to run, especially Marshall and Barrow, as we would be certain to lose those (they were very hostile areas to begin with).
Marshall seems like a great fit for Gov, and the best candidate to take on the GOP’s likely nominee, Lt. Governor Casey Cagel. Marshall might have a difficult time in a Democratic primary because of the S-CHIP vote but I think he’d pull it out.
Jim Butler is a very impressive candidate who gets talked about from time to time to run and I think the Isakson race won’t be as tough as people assume (he has never been too popular with conservatives and his movement to the right in the Senate is an under estimated liability for him. Butler would have several advantages against Isakson including:
1. Ability to self fund: Butler is worth a ton of money from several big time successful trails (think of John Edwards times 10), and he practices the “right” kind of law politically, suing big corporations for negligence and things like that.
2. Southern persona: Although very bright (much more so than the idiotic Isakson) Butler has cultivated a brilliantly down-home, me and you versus the big guys kind of image that is very attractive in the rural areas of the state that Isakson is unfamiliar with as a Atlanta Republican. Butler, working out of Columbus is in one of the “swing” parts of the state that Dems used to mop up in back in the good ole days for GA Democrats.
and somewhat unrelated:
3. Isakson is NOT that popular. I don’t think his favorability has ever been over 55 percent since taking office and he only did as well as Bush in 2004 against a weak, underfunded opponent. He’s a terrible debater who’d get eaten alive by a man who’s made millions convincing juries to see it his client’s way.
Kind of going off the statewide candidates theme a bit, GA needs to seriously contest Congressmen Paul Broun in the 10th. He is absolutely bat shit crazy, evidenced by his disgusting remarks about President-Elect Obama and I think the right kind of candidate could take him down in 2010 if they get in early enough and raise the funds necessary. The 10th went for Bush at about a 62-38 clip, not as bad as Minnick’s seat in Idaho and somewhat relatable to AL-02 where Bobby Bright just won. A Bright kind of candidate here would be Alan Powell, a salty state representative from Hartwell and the only representative left in NE GA. There is an intensive recruiting process going on right now for Powell on a GA progressive blog called Tondee’s Tavern if you’d like to know more:
http://www.tondeestavern.com/s…
if we start giving up House seats left and right we could be looking at a loss of 20 House seats or more. We would not be able to hold Marshall’s seat if he left it.
For the U.S. Senate, dems have these options: Labor Commissioner Michael Thurmond (D-Athens), Congressman Jim Marshall (D-Macon), or Jim Butler (D-Columbus). Although Isakson won the 2004 race, he ran against a weak opponent in Denise Majette. Isakson have always had a hard time against strong challengers whether it’s from his onw party or the dems. Marshall can most definitely win statewide because of his district, which goes from the Atlanta surburbs to south georgia. He was running ads in the Atlanta T.V. market because he has Newton, Butts, Jasper Counties in his district. For Governor: David Poythress (D-Macon) has already announced that he is running. He has the right profile to win here: Strong military background ( Vietnam Vet, Gulf War Vet), Labor commissioner, secretary of state, fiscally conservative, socially moderate. Thurbert Baker (D-Stone Mountain)
, a conservative black democrat has strong support from rural counties in the state, appeals to conservative dem & republicans as well. He might run for govenor, or he might run for Lt. Govenor, or the senate. Michael Thurmond (D-Athens) a moderate democrat has not only beat GOP challengers, but challenges from his own party. Spends alot of time in North Georgia where dems are irrelevant. Has strong support in that part of the state. Roy Barnes (D-Mableton) if he decises to run again, he would have the advantage over other dems & in a general election, he would be the favorite against any republican bacause of name ID. The wildcards are: Sanford Bishop (D-Albany), Shirley Franklin (D-Atlanta), Alan Powell (D-Hartwell). The darkhorse candidates are: Bobby Saxon (D-Nicholson), Rand Knight (D-Atlanta), Vernon Jones (D-Decatur) & Larry Walker (D-Perry) & Terry Coleman (D-Eastman).
He’s not the most charming fella.
Does anyone know how a AA Democrat has managed to hold Georgia’s AG office for over a decade and counting? He must be doing something right, because those wuld seem to be two big liabilities in GA. Is he electable for Governor?
But if Isakson backs out of the Senate race and does run for Governor he’d be better off going for the Senate. Marshall may not be the most exciting candidate, but he’s very knowledgable on the issues and a good fit for GA Governor.
Also, if we don’t take the Georgia Governor’s office in 2010 Jim Marshall is almost guaranteed to get gerrymandered out of his seat in 2012. Believe it or not the GA repubs could have made their 2006 gerrymander much worse for us than they did, which they probably will do in 2012.
Knight was very knowledgeable and was able to build some group support. Unfortunately, it didn’t help. Perhaps with a lower level office like PSC, he could use his knowledge and do better electorally.
Besides the redistricting consequences, we have to start rebuilding the party in Georgia. If we win the governor’s mansion, we will have a person to rebuild the party around. Personally, I think Marshall has the best chance to win, so he is the person I want to run. Short run we may lose his house seat, but the long term implications of having a Republican governor are worse.
isn’t he?