NY-Gov: Early Line Favors Paterson Over Rudy

Some early reads from Siena College (PDF) (11/10-13, registered voters, Oct. in parens):

David Paterson (D-inc): 49 (51)

Rudy Giuliani: 43 (40)

Undecided: 8 (9)

(MoE: ±3.9%)

Siena has actually been testing this matchup since July, and the numbers have stayed fairly constant, though this is the smallest margin yet seen. I personally think Paterson would beat Rudy, and probably handily at that, but I’d actually be a bit surprised if Rudy ran in the first place. I think he’d have the exact same sort of “doesn’t play well with others” problem that Spitzer had with the legislature, only worse. (Though maybe he’s not smart enough to realize that.)

But he’s put in such crappy efforts in his last two campaigns (for president and for senate in 2000) that I don’t think he has the fire in the belly for this one. And if he does for some reason want to run for president again in 2012, then this seat just isn’t an option for him, win or lose.

Siena also tested AG Andrew Cuomo against Rudy (July in parens):

Andrew Cuomo (D): 44 (47)

Rudy Giuliani: 46 (42)

Undecided: 10 (11)

(MoE: ±3.9%)

The odds of this scenario coming to pass are very slim. I very much doubt Cuomo would challenge a sitting governor in a primary, and it’s even less likely that he’d win. And even if both of those events somehow came to pass, he’d have less than two months to run a general election campaign, thanks to NY’s notoriously late primary. Anyhow, his numbers aren’t very good against Paterson (July in parens):

Paterson: 53 (51)

Cuomo: 25 (21)

Undecided: 22 (28)

As it happens, Cuomo’s favorability rating has soared lately, to an impressive 61-19 (it was 48-29 when he first took office). It looks like he’s inheriting the good part of Spitzer’s mantle in his crusade against the chiselers and wastrels at AIG. Paterson, however, is also doing extremely well: He’s at 64-19. But with looming budget cuts, these gaudy numbers could be vulnerable.

I still think a primary challenge by Cuomo – or, in fact, anyone else, like Hillary Clinton – is not in the cards for a variety of reasons. But Paterson might be able to avoid even the hint of a threat if Clinton takes the Secretary of State job and he in turn appoints Cuomo to her seat. We’ll see soon enough!

(Hat-tip: Political Wire.)

37 thoughts on “NY-Gov: Early Line Favors Paterson Over Rudy”

  1. recent discussion of who might replace hilary in the senate focused quite a bit on electability.

    here’s something to mull over. if paterson is threatened by giuliani – wouldn’t it make political sense for him to pick someone like nydia velazquez that appears vulnerable, thus baiting rudy to run for senate instead of governor?

    i think highly of paterson (and my congresswoman velazquez too), but i have to imagine the prospect’s occured to him

  2. Is Rudy the only one who can make this interesting?  They should have polled Rep. King.  I want to see him give up his house seat.  

    OT: What’s with all the Reid hating on DKos?  He was going to fight Leiberman until Obama gave Leiberman the green light.  If anyone should have a problem with anyone, the blogs should be angry with Obama, not Reid.  

  4. Ever. He seems to have moved so far to the right that I don’t think he’d be able to win statewide again. After his spectacularly lethargic run for the presidency, I don’t think he’ll put himself back in electoral politics.

    The NY GOP is in poor shape if he’s their white knight dream candidate. Maybe they can get whatshisname who got creamed by Spitzer to run again.

  5. This is Giuliani’s high point. Can anybody seriously say that his numbers will go up once voters are reintroduced to him again? He might drive up an opponent’s negatives, but he’s neither smart (except in a rather unnerving hyenaesque manner) nor likeable so I think his ceiling is 50.1% at best.

  6. They ALWAYS have the best results for Republicans. Look at their record during the presidential campaign! You might as well subtract 5 points from Rudy and add 5 to Paterson if you want to look at how it would really shake out.

  7. Has he ever thought that we’re sick & tired of his sleazy campaigns? After the EPIC FAIL that was his Presidential Campaign, he now needs to go into retirement & stop bothering us. It’s not like we’ll let him win any kind of elected office ever again!

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